In the past quarter, the A-share market experienced many challenges from internal and external factors. The three major stock indexes closed down, and the market funds remained on the sidelines as a whole. Looking forward to the second quarter, most institutions agree that: the current valuation has experienced a sharp correction in the early stage and has entered a reasonable range; The “steady growth” policy will focus on hedging the impact of the epidemic, so it is still one of the main lines of market investment.
“steady growth” policy to hedge the impact of the epidemic
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief strategist Xun Yugen said that from the perspective of market performance, after the decline in early trading on March 28, the market slowly rebounded, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.2% in a week, indicating that the impact of the epidemic on capital sentiment has been preliminarily digested. Xun Yugen predicted that the local epidemic will be gradually controlled, and the “steady growth” policy will continue to be overweight, which will eventually hedge the impact of the epidemic.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team said that the current round of epidemic had an unexpected impact on the rhythm of “steady growth”, and the urgency of policy overweight increased significantly in the second quarter. It is expected that the policy will shift from comprehensive deployment to centralized development.
Specifically, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the “steady growth” policy in the second quarter will be more focused: it is expected that greater tax cuts and fees will be introduced for retail, catering, logistics, tourism, hotel and other industries damaged by the epidemic; For the groups whose employment and income are seriously damaged due to the epidemic in relevant service industries, it is expected to launch greater direct subsidies; At the same time, for the financing of real estate developers or give more direct support, and adjust the restrictive policies in the real estate field due to urban policies.
market pessimism or reversed
Since December last year, the A-share market has been continuously adjusted, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the time and space for this round of adjustment have been considerable. At present, the valuation of A-share is at a historical low level, and the strength of market repair is accumulating.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the current market concerns about the economy have continued since the beginning of the year, but the pessimistic expectation has reached the extreme, and the economic probability in the second quarter showed a trend of first restraining and then increasing. The peak of concerns about overseas risk factors has passed. At present, the positions and position structure of investors have been fully adjusted, and the selling pressure in the A-share market has been significantly released.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) strategy team said that the market may have a relatively positive performance in April. On the one hand, quarterly results are still the supporting factor of the market, on the other hand, factors such as policies will also promote the gradual repair of risk appetite. In the short term, a quarterly performance is expected to be better than expected. It is recommended that we should pay attention to two main lines: “steady growth” (building, building materials, real estate, etc.) and consumption (Baijiu, medicine, household appliances, retail and other industries).
focus on “steady growth” and “undervaluation”
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities strategy team judged that since the beginning of the year, the market valuation has been reduced, and the investment focus should be on stocks with low-risk characteristics. In terms of industry allocation, it is suggested to focus on three main lines of “steady growth”, upstream inflation and consumption: “steady growth” line is optimistic about public investment, such as photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, construction, etc; The upstream inflation line is optimistic about coal and chemical resources; The consumption line is good for the reverse and stable varieties of profit, such as pig and baijiu.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) suggested that the second quarter focus on two directions related to the “steady growth” policy: one is financial real estate. In this round of market, the excess return of bank real estate has been obvious, but at present, the overall valuation of the large financial sector is still at the bottom, and there is still room for financial real estate to rise in the future. Second, new infrastructure, such as low-carbon economy and digital economy, will be more flexible Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the new infrastructure is the balance point between short-term stable growth and medium – and long-term economic restructuring, especially photovoltaic wind power in low-carbon economy and cloud computing data center in digital economy, with greater potential in the second quarter.
