Today (April 6), the three major stock indexes of A-Shares opened low. After the inertia fell at the beginning of the session, the stock index once had a short upward performance, then dived back, and maintained a low-level shock consolidation pattern. Near noon, the Shanghai index showed signs of recovery, which was stronger than the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index.
From the disk perspective, the light index and heavy individual stock market reappeared, Qilu Bank Co.Ltd(601665) soared the limit, the banking sector protected the market, the capital construction targets led by real estate staged the limit tide, and the industrial chain targets such as traditional Chinese medicine and covid-19 drugs performed prominently. In addition, the digital currency sector also strengthened, Szzt Electronics Co.Ltd(002197) , Chutian Dragon Co.Ltd(003040) , Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300479) , Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Wuhan Tianyu Information Industry Co.Ltd(300205) , Shenzhen Emperor Technology Company Limited(300546) , etc.
In addition, in the real estate sector, Bright Real Estate Group Co.Limited(600708) , China Enterprise Company Limited(600675) , Everbright Jiabao Co.Ltd(600622) , China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) , Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) and other price limits, including China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) 4 connecting board and Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) 9 days 8 connecting board as of publication.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) said it was expected that the mood of A-Shares would be restored after the Qingming holiday. However, considering that the profit growth rate of Q2 enterprises is still in the downward period, and the Fed’s interest rate hike and even table contraction in May will still disturb the market, it is difficult to deduce a sustained strong rebound. The rebound space of the market is temporarily anchored by the annual performance growth of non-financial A shares (we expect 4% ~ 7%). The time point from rebound to reversal or the inflection point of interim report performance in the middle of the year is the key. Real estate stocks may have a three-stage market, which is currently deducting the second stage market; Industry allocation attaches importance to the subdivision of improved supply and demand + the capital expenditure direction of the best cash flow sector.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
[Topic 2] Traditional Chinese Medicine
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned that the traditional Chinese medicine sector is in a period of confusion and dilemma at the bottom of the valley for a long time, and it is expected to usher in a dilemma reversal in 2022; In recent years, the state has vigorously supported the development of traditional Chinese medicine and continuously issued relevant policies. The approval criteria for innovative traditional Chinese medicine are also constantly standardized, and the incremental logic is ushered in under the supply side reform; In the context of the overall valuation correction of the pharmaceutical sector, the traditional Chinese medicine sector, as an undervalued and policy haven, is expected to usher in the valuation remodeling; We believe that the market of traditional Chinese medicine is sustainable in the medium and long term. We can pay attention to structural opportunities in the short term and target enterprises that benefit from policy promotion, innovation and R & D and consumption upgrading in the medium and long term.
In addition, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that the sector Market in March mainly focuses on the first quarterly report of the annual report, covid-19 related industrial chain and traditional Chinese medicine. The pharmaceutical sector has experienced three consecutive quarters of adjustment since July 2021. The current valuation is 28.6 times PE (37.2 times the historical average), entering a very comfortable configuration range. We believe that the whole year’s pharmaceutical sector market will continue to focus on the three main lines of performance, covid-19 and undervalued value, and continue to be optimistic about the continuation of the pharmaceutical sector market; Meanwhile, as April enters the first quarterly report window period, the weight of performance is expected to further increase. It is suggested to actively grasp it in combination with the quarterly report.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the “14th five year plan” of traditional Chinese medicine was released, and the inheritance and development of traditional Chinese medicine became the main theme. On March 29, the general office of the State Council issued the “14th five year plan for the development of traditional Chinese medicine”, which is the first Five-Year Plan for traditional Chinese Medicine issued in the name of the general office of the State Council. The setting of indicators more reflects the requirements for the high-quality development of traditional Chinese medicine in the new era. In the goals set in the 14th five year plan for the development of traditional Chinese medicine, a number of per capita indicators have increased significantly. The plan also defines ten main tasks, involving all aspects of TCM diagnosis and treatment, and highlights the characteristic advantages of TCM in health services, which are reflected in disease prevention (such as TCM Prevention formula involved in covid-19 Treatment Guide), advantageous specialties (such as cardio cerebrovascular, skin, rehabilitation, etc.).
[Topic 3] bank
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) mentioned that although the credit demand weakened in February and the social financing increment was less than expected, we believe that with the increasing weight of the steady growth policy, the financing demand is expected to gradually stabilize and recover in the future. At the meeting of the finance committee, it was proposed that “new loans should maintain a moderate growth”, and there is no doubt about the sustainability of credit relief. This year’s stable growth and wide credit environment are conducive to the stability of bank fundamentals. The performance of listed banks has maintained rapid growth and stable asset quality in the first two months. At present, the valuation of the sector is at a historical low, and the head bank has also deeply corrected to the low valuation in recent years. It continues to focus on Ping’an, Ningbo, Changshu and postal savings.
Shengang Securities pointed out that this round of bank market Suggestions focus on three main lines: first, the state-owned large banks that have performed well in previous market China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) ; Second, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , which have earlier layout in the field of high-end manufacturing and green loans, and third, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , which have developed rapidly in large retail business.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that from the 2021 annual reports of several listed banks, the profit growth rate of most banks was further improved compared with the third quarterly report, and the asset quality performance was stable and good. Looking forward to the second quarter, the actions on the sector can be sufficient: 1) the marginal easing of real estate policy is conducive to the credit risk mitigation of banks, especially considering that after the continuous liquidation of asset quality in the industry in the past 3-4 years, the pressure of non-performing generation is expected to be controllable, and the performance of asset quality is expected to remain stable; 2) China’s goal of steady growth is clear. In the face of the pressure of the current economic environment outside China, it can be predicted that more steady growth policies are expected to continue in 2022, help improve economic expectations and provide effective support for the fundamental operation of banks; 3) At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.59x, which is still at a historical low. The pessimistic expectations of the market for the macro-economy and the quality of bank assets are fully reflected. During the performance disclosure period, we believe that the confirmation of performance improvement is expected to become the catalyst of the sector market, so we suggest paying active attention to it.
[Topic 4] digital currency
Ping An Securities pointed out that the digital RMB adopts a two-tier operation mode. Under the premise of central bank centralized management, commercial banks and relevant institutions jointly promote the application pilot. Jingdong, meituan and other companies are leading the Internet industry in the application of digital RMB, mainly due to strong promotion willingness, rich consumption scenarios and large preferential incentives. By the end of 2021, more than 1 million users had used digital RMB in jd.com, with a cumulative consumption of more than 200 million yuan. In terms of consumption scenarios, jd.com and meituan have rich e-commerce and local life application scenarios. In addition to the number of RMB coupons issued by jd.com, it has become the first incentive for jd.com to use RMB to reduce its salary. Compared with Jingdong and the US group, WeChat and Alipay were relatively slow to participate in the trial. They did not use a large number of incentives to encourage consumers to use digital Renminbi.
The agency further analyzed and grasped the digital RMB investment opportunity from two aspects: hardware equipment and software system. At present, the digital RMB is in the initial stage of development, and opportunities and challenges are growing. Hardware manufacturers may benefit from the market opportunities brought by the digital RMB “Hard Wallet”. A major feature of digital RMB is that it supports payment by hardware such as mobile NFC, bracelet and wearable devices. With the improvement of the acceptance of relevant “hard wallets”, relevant digital RMB hardware developers will have the opportunity to obtain more relevant orders and promote the improvement of performance. Software manufacturers may benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrading of the financial system. With the popularity of digital RMB, relevant financial institutions need to upgrade the matching of relevant software systems, or will bring huge demand for system upgrading for relevant software manufacturers.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities believes that more combinations of digital currency, distributed ledger technology and RMB cross-border payment system are expected in the future. It is expected to significantly reduce the time and transaction cost of the current cross-border system. At present, the pilot DCEP is mainly used in Chinese retail scenarios and is not very suitable for cross-border clearing. In the future, the wholesale central bank digital currency supporting cross-border synchronous settlement (PVP) mechanism may be a better technical roadshow.
