Key points of the report
① the second quarter is the window period to verify the quality of steady growth. The tracking value of monthly high-frequency data increases. The bulk decline + economic stabilization is the optimal combination assumption, and the market rebound tends to the growth style. ② The style of domestic and foreign capital in Q1: the public offering increased steadily in January, increased slightly in February, and the style in the first ten days of March was chaotic, and the value in the last ten days of March was partial; 3. Foreign capital value: plus cycle, finance, selling Baijiu, lithium power, new energy preference photovoltaic; ④ The position reduction of absolute return fund Q1 is a foregone conclusion. With reference to the historical position stabilization, the focus is on whether to turn the killing valuation into killing performance; ⑤ In the quarter after the release of the epidemic in the past two years, the publicly raised foreign capital increased its positions and grew: Dianxin, electronics and medicine, reduced its positions and grew steadily: banks, real estate and building materials, but foreign capital continued to sell industries with damaged consumption; ⑥ The value based strategy won this year. The “bear market umbrella” feature of the high dividend strategy from January to march was obvious. The matching of profit and valuation was valued in February, and the pb-roe portfolio performed better in the volatile market. ⑦ In the quarter after the release of the epidemic in the past two years, the market rebounded and warmed up, the growth strategy was obviously dominant, the tenfold shares and secondary new shares were strong, and the value strategy lost the market.
Abstract body
Public offering: steady growth in January, partial growth in February, chaotic style in early March and partial value in late March. ① In January, the public offering style was obviously biased towards the market value represented by SSE 50 and CSI 300, while the deviation from the growth styles such as gem index, Dianxin and medicine increased. ② In February, the public offering style was balanced towards growth, the industry was biased towards consumption and new electricity, withdrew from the cycle, and deviated more from finance and medicine. ③ In the first ten days of March, the market generally fell, the public offering group became weaker, and there was no consistent style choice; In late March, the market rebounded, the public offering style shifted to the value represented by CSI 300 and SSE 50, the industry biased towards the consumer sector, and the deviation from the growth style of gem index, power equipment, electronics and so on increased.
Foreign capital bias: plus cycle, finance, selling Baijiu, lithium, new energy preference photovoltaic. This year, foreign capital plus cycle, finance, selling Baijiu, lithium power, new energy preferences photovoltaic. Purchase of the top five stocks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) . Reduction of the top five stocks: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China stock market news, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . Since March 15th, foreign capital has accelerated to flow into the market, adding lithium batteries, photovoltaic, banks, selling Baijiu and military industry. Purchase of the top five stocks: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , China stock market news, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) .
The position reduction of absolute income fund Q1 is a foregone conclusion. Since the beginning of this year, the absolute return funds have retreated significantly on the basis of high positions and low net worth, and the probability of positions has been reduced in the first quarter. However, from the historical experience, the negative feedback lasted for up to one quarter. In the past decade, the position reduction of fixed income + funds for more than two consecutive quarters only occurred in the two rounds of bear markets in 2015 and 2018. In addition to the liquidity impact, the more important thing in the bear market is that the downward pressure of the economy leads to the killing of valuation to the killing of performance.
Reply: how the institutional style has changed after unsealing in the past two years. ① In the quarter after the release of the epidemic, the public offering significantly increased its position, growth and consumption, and reduced its holdings in stable growth sectors such as banking, real estate and building materials. Among them, the growth is mainly power on, electronics and medicine, and the consumption is concentrated in the epidemic damaged sectors such as commerce and trade, social services and textile services. ② Foreign capital increased significantly after the opening of the epidemic, including lithium batteries, photovoltaic, semiconductors, consumer electronics, medical services and medical devices, and sold stable growth and epidemic damaged consumer industries.
Since this year, the value strategy has obviously won. ① Since this year, the overall market has fallen sharply, and the value strategy has won for three consecutive months. Among them, the “bear market umbrella” characteristic of high dividend strategy is obvious. ② The high dividend strategy is highly defensive, and the excess return is higher in the falling market in January. ③ In February, the market fluctuated upward, and the combination of PEG and pb-roe performed stronger in the volatile market. ④ The high dividend strategy became the “ballast” in the market crash in March.
Resumption: the combination of growth strategies is dominant after the epidemic situation is unsealed. One quarter after the outbreak was unsealed, the market rebounded and warmed up, and the growth strategy was obviously dominant. From the historical experience, the tenfold stock portfolio has a stronger performance during the period when the market is dominant and the market is rising as a whole, such as 2020q2; The sub IPO strategy is more suitable for the small cap dominated and the overall upward market, such as 2021q2; Value based strategies are more likely to perform better in market declines or volatile markets, while they have significantly underperformed the market in the rebound market after the opening of the epidemic.
Note: This article refers to 2022 this year and 2021 last year.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
