Core view
Review:
On January 3, 2022, “it’s the turn of big finance” opened, emphasizing that investors need to focus on adding opportunities for banks and real estate chains of “big finance”. In the following series of reports, such as retreat or attack, rely on big finance on January 16, big finance, continue to cut on February 6, a new round of upward attack of big finance on March 6, crossroads: the choice between big finance and growth on March 27, it is emphasized to pay attention to the “big finance” market, which is the winner and loser of 2022 investment. Big finance seems to be defensive, but in fact it is the best attack, and pay attention to big finance (bank and real estate chain).
The epidemic situation is repeated, and the target of 5.5% is relatively determined. Only by increasing fiscal expenditure and subsidies, greater easing and improving the deterioration of the balance sheet of the private sector can we meet the stabilization and recovery of the economy. The provisions of the CSRC on strengthening the confidentiality and archives management related to the issuance and listing of securities abroad is conducive to the repair of short-term sentiment and the improvement of risk appetite. The inflection point of external global liquidity and interest rate has been formed, and the Fed has become more and more hawkish. Accelerating the process of raising interest rates and shrinking the table has put great pressure on the market for overvalued varieties and the return of foreign capital. Improve the balance sheet of the private sector, steady growth first, and big finance (Banking and real estate chain) is worthy of your trust. Growth stocks played a good “guerrilla war”. In the respite period of the first quarterly report, they rebounded based on the decline and turned small victories into big victories, such as photovoltaic, wind power, intelligent driving, Internet, digital economy, etc.
Investment advice: improve the balance sheet of the private sector, steady growth first, and big finance (Banking and real estate chain) is worthy of your trust. Growth stocks played a good “guerrilla war”. In the respite period of the first quarterly report, they rebounded based on the decline and turned small victories into big victories, such as photovoltaic, wind power, intelligent driving, Internet, digital economy, etc.
What is big finance? Since the publication of “it’s the turn of big finance” on January 3, the market has been in doubt about what big finance includes and what it is, and believes that “big finance” is just a bank. This understanding is one-sided and incomplete. When we use the concept of “big finance”, we focus on investment opportunities in banks, real estate and real estate chain.
1) the macro economy is picking up from the bottom and is still in the window period of monetary easing and credit easing as a whole. The banking sector with low valuation, high dividend attribute and pro cyclical attribute is expected to be favored. At the same time, the recovery and improvement of the real estate chain will contribute to the further recovery of the quality of bank assets. We can focus on large banks with undervalued “stagflation” and high dividend yield, and urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks with good performance growth in Chengdu Chongqing economic circle, Yangtze River Delta economic circle and other places.
2) the relaxation of the real estate supply side has formed strong expectations and is gradually landing. On the demand side, due to the ongoing implementation of urban policies, the data is expected to improve after the impact of the epidemic is weakened, and real estate enterprises can be allocated preferentially. In the follow-up, especially in the quarter of the annual report, the accrual and impairment of the post real estate chain cycle gradually subside, and after the sales data gradually improve, the varieties of home furnishings, consumer building materials, household appliances and other products in the post real estate cycle can be gradually added.
3) know from a small point of view. On March 26, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) issued an annual announcement. In 2021, the revenue was 335.22 billion (+ 43.7%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 50.27 billion (+ 28.3%), and the cash dividend per share was 2.54 yuan, with a dividend rate of 100.4%, which exceeded the expectation. In the direction of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) high dividend and high dividend, such as coal, steel, public utilities, etc.
Increased risk appetite, “growth stocks” played a good guerrilla war and turned small victories into big victories. On the one hand, combined with the better direction of the first quarterly report, photovoltaic, wind power and new energy in growth stocks are closely related. On the other hand, the financial Commission issued a timely voice to actively support qualified enterprises to list abroad and strive to keep the channels for overseas listing unblocked. Zhonggai shares and Internet economy related are expected to usher in a warm wind. However, due to the rapid and deep decline in the early stage, the current growth stock opportunity is more suitable for “guerrilla warfare”, and a small victory is a big victory. Focus on Hong Kong stocks, car chips and digital economy related to zhonggai Internet, photovoltaic, wind power, new energy chain, intelligent driving, etc.
Risk tip: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, overseas interest rate hikes exceeded expectations, and the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
