The target of total installed capacity of power supply in 22 years is clear. The National Energy Administration recently issued a notice on printing and distributing the guiding opinions on energy work in 2022 to enhance the supply guarantee capacity. The installed capacity of electricity reached about 2.6 billion kilowatts, the power generation reached about 9.07 trillion kwh, the peak power generation capacity increased by more than 80 million kilowatts, and the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power accounted for about 12.2% of the power consumption of the whole society. It is estimated that the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power will reach about 1.1 billion kw in 2025, and the installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation will exceed 50% of the total installed capacity. Under the catalysis of the “double carbon” goal, the driving force of power development has changed from traditional coal power to new energy.
The market space for renewable resources will open quickly. In recent years, China has issued a series of laws, regulations and policies related to the utilization of renewable resources, which has played a good role in guiding and promoting the utilization level of renewable resources and the establishment and improvement of a green and low-carbon circular development system. It is expected that by 2025, China’s resource recycling industrial system will be basically established, the resource recycling system covering the whole society will be basically completed, the resource utilization efficiency will be greatly improved, and the replacement proportion of renewable resources to primary resources will be further improved. With the rapid opening of renewable resources market space, enterprises will usher in a period of rapid growth.
Cement and glass prices fell. Cement prices fell this week on a month on month basis. The main reason for the decline is that the plan of staggering peak and stopping kilns has been implemented one after another, and the cement supply has increased, but there is still a certain gap in demand year-on-year. At present, cement has gradually entered the traditional peak season. With the warmer weather, the operating rate of downstream construction sites should have shown a steady upward trend, but this year, due to poor transportation and other reasons, the cement is not in the peak season. The clinker inventory continued to grow this week, the clinker storage capacity ratio increased year-on-year, and the operating load of the mill decreased slightly. We believe that although the demand is delayed, it has not disappeared. We suggest paying attention to the leading enterprises in the cement area. This week, the spot price of float glass showed a downward trend, the market demand was general, some regional processing plants had some replenishment, and the inventory decreased. Subsequently, with the steady growth of glass market demand, the price of float glass has room for improvement.
Invest in coal stocks and enjoy the dividends gradually realized by the cost advantage of coal. The dividend yield of the coal sector is at the forefront of various industries, and the dynamic P / E ratio of the sector is less than 10 times. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, coal consumption can still maintain positive growth. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, with the development of clean and efficient utilization technology of coal, China’s coal has natural price advantages in traditional fossil energy (coal, oil and natural gas), which is expected to be more applied in coal power and non power fields. On the premise of steady economic growth in China, coal consumption is expected to maintain a certain positive growth.
Investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for environmental protection and public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: investment recommendations: Environmental Public: recommendations for the public: recommendations for the China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ( Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) . SH). Building materials: recommendations: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: building materials: recommendations: recommendations: recommendations of the Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . SH), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ( China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . SH). Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ( China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) ( Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) ( Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) . SZ)
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk that the landing effect of production restriction is not as good as expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
