This week’s opinion update:
Continue to adhere to the main line of “stable growth”: the national standing committee pointed out that we should not relax our commitment to the annual development goals, and the policy of stabilizing the economy should come out early and quickly. “Steady growth” is still the main theme of the follow-up policy. The national development and Reform Commission requires that all departments should ensure the promotion of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan, speed up the construction of projects under construction and form physical workload as soon as possible. We continue to be firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities in relevant sectors throughout the year, including infrastructure central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and design units in the construction industry, as well as cement and pipe network in the building materials industry.
The strategic layout time point of the real estate chain may have appeared: after the policy bottom is clarified again, the real estate policies of provincial capital cities such as Fuzhou and low-level cities such as Qinhuangdao and Quzhou are further liberalized, and the local auction heat of some cities is warmer. At present, the real estate chain has reached the time point of strategic layout, and glass and consumer building materials are recommended. The core investment logic of consumer building materials lies in the switching of valuation, which has great flexibility. Since the fundamentals have not seen an obvious inflection point, at this stage, we believe that the more stable first-line leaders may perform better.
In the context of building energy conservation, pay attention to the opportunities of green building materials: the Ministry of housing and urban rural development approved the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization as the national standard. Pay attention to the development opportunities of thermal insulation, shading and energy-saving materials, recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , and pay attention to Shandong Yuma Sun-Shading Technology Corp.Ltd(300993) . BIPV is an effective means to promote green building. It is suggested to pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) Xingye, Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) .
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building Materials Index + 5.70%, of which other decorative materials sector increased the most (+ 10.68%) and ceramic sector decreased the most (- 0.96%); This week, CITIC construction index was + 2.10%, of which the housing construction sector increased the most (+ 4.61%) and the building decoration II decreased the most (- 2.12%); This week, the infrastructure public offering REITs sector rose by an average of + 1.15% (arithmetic average), among which Shougang green energy rose the most (+ 4.49%), and the REIT of Huaxia Yuexiu Expressway fell the most (- 1.54%).
High frequency data (3.26-4.1): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 512 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.34%; The storage capacity ratio is 65.13% and the chain ratio is + 3.63pct. Glass: the spot price of glass this week was 2028 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 3.75%; The inventory was 632859 million heavy boxes, a month on month increase of + 2.88%. The average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was 26 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass is 20.00 yuan / m2, which is the same month on month; Glass fiber: the price of winding direct yarn this week was 6450 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The price of G75 electronic yarn was 8750 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 12.50%. Carbon fiber: the average market price of carbon fiber this week was 186.25 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The average price of large tow in China is 145 yuan / kg, and the average price of small tow in China is 225 yuan / kg, which is flat month on month.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) etc.); In the direction of capital construction, pay attention to the elasticity of cement and some pipeline enterprises (it is suggested to pay attention to: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ); The time point for strategic layout of consumer building materials has come (it is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: optimistic about the equipment operating lease sector (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) etc.); Revaluation of sector value brought by public offering REITs of infrastructure construction (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc.); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , etc.); Be optimistic about the development trend of green building industry and pay attention to the thematic opportunities of building energy conservation.
Preferred combination: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (15xpe, optimistic about the equipment rental track), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.5xpb, revaluation of the value of existing operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.6xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (13xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the trend of emission reduction), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (8xpe, performance elasticity of float glass and valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (34xpe, UTG, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
