Event:
On April 1, 2022, the U.S. non farm data released that 431000 new non farm jobs were added, with an expected 490000. The previous value was 678000, revised to 750000.
The number of new non farm workers in the United States in March was slightly lower than expected, but still maintained a high growth rate of more than 400000.
In March, 431000 non-agricultural workers were added, less than 490000 in the market period, the smallest increase since November last year. However, the number of new non-agricultural workers in March still maintained a high growth rate, which was the 11th consecutive month since May 2021. The number of non-agricultural workers in the United States increased by more than 400000, the longest continuous increase in employment since 1939. Meanwhile, the number of new non-agricultural employment in January and February was revised up, and the number of new non-agricultural employment in February was revised up from the initial value of 678000 to 750000. After the correction, the number of new jobs in January and February this year was 95000 higher than before.
The unemployment rate continued to decline, the labor participation rate maintained an upward trend, and the employment willingness continued to rise.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in March, exceeding the expected 3.7% from the previous value of 3.8%. The unemployment rate continued to improve, hitting a new low since February 2020. The labor participation rate increased to 62.4%, compared with the previous value of 62.3%. The labor participation rate continued to rise, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; Compared with that before the outbreak in February 2020, the difference is only about 1 percentage point. It shows that the US labor market has fully recovered, the performance is relatively strong, and the employment recovery is on track. Continued high inflation, reduced household savings and steady wage growth may be the main factors to attract more American jobs.
Leisure and hotel industry, professional and business services, retail trade and manufacturing were the main sources of new non-agricultural employment in March.
The data showed that employment in leisure and hotel industry, professional and business services, retail trade and manufacturing continued to grow significantly, which was the main source of new non-agricultural employment in March. Among them, 112000 people were added in the leisure and hotel industry and 102000 in the professional and commercial service industry. In addition, other industries, including social assistance, construction and financial activities, also showed employment increases of varying magnitudes. With the cancellation of epidemic prevention measures in various states and the decline of residents' concerns about covid-19 epidemic, the impact of covid-19 epidemic on commercial activities continues to weaken, and more workers return to the labor market.
The year-on-year growth of average hourly salary was slightly higher than expected, and the strong salary growth continued to attract people to enter the labor market.
In March, the average hourly wage increased by 5.6% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 5.1%. The wage growth was slightly higher than the expected 5.5%, and the growth momentum was still strong. At present, the labor market is in short supply and the inflation situation is severe, resulting in upward pressure on wages. In terms of working hours, the average working hours per week in March was 34.6 hours, compared with the previous value of 34.7 hours, with a slight decrease. The current tense situation in the job market also makes the company attract labor by adjusting working hours and increasing welfare expenditure, so as to enhance residents' employment intention.
The non-agricultural data provided support for the interest rate increase of 50bp at the FOMC meeting in May; The yield curve of 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds is inverted again.
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve's vote Committee has collectively turned the hawk. Many Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, have expressed their support for a more active monetary policy to curb the current excessive inflation. A good job market is the main reason why the United States can cope with the interest rate increase. The non farm data in March showed that the performance of the U.S. labor market remained strong and gradually recovered to the pre epidemic employment level, which provides a more sufficient reason for the United States to raise interest rates by 50bp at the FOMC meeting in May. In addition, with the release of non-agricultural data, the market expectation of raising interest rates increased, and the yield curve of 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds hung upside down again.
Risk tips:
The spread of the epidemic in the United States;
Geopolitical crisis continues to ferment;
The Fed tightened monetary policy more than expected.
