The short-term decline of thermal coal price is expected to be limited. As of April 1, wind data showed that the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 1295 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of supply, the transportation of large mines is dominated by long-term cooperation, and the spot is dominated by the just needed procurement of chemical and building materials. Affected by the epidemic, the inter provincial automobile transportation is still limited, the railway capacity is still tight, the shipment of some coal mines slows down, and the inventory pressure increases. In terms of demand, due to the lack of transport capacity, the port resources are still tight. In the traditional off-season, due to the superposition of the impact of the epidemic, some downstream work stoppages and the weakening of short-term purchase intention. However, overall, the demand is still relatively rigid, and the procurement is delayed only due to the impact of the epidemic and sentiment. Therefore, we expect that the space for short-term price downward is limited, and the price of thermal coal is expected to be mainly volatile in April.
Coking coal prices are expected to be stable and good. According to wind data, as of April 1, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, the production area remained relatively high this week. Due to the continuous impact of the epidemic, there were still obstacles to cross provincial highway transportation, the superposition of train wagon was tight, and some coal types in the coal mine were still accumulated. However, the online bidding situation improved, the premium increased, and the market sentiment warmed up. Downstream, the epidemic control in some areas of Hebei has been lifted one after another, and some coke steel enterprises and intermediate traders have begun to actively purchase raw coal. On the whole, we expect coking coal prices to run steadily and well in the short term.
Coke prices are expected to run smoothly. According to wind data, as of April 1, the factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke closed at 3600 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; In terms of ports, the price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary metallurgical coke was 3700 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, in terms of supply, under the background of the current epidemic, coke steel enterprises are affected to varying degrees. In some areas, coke enterprises are still difficult to transport and inventory accumulation is serious. However, with the unsealing of many places, the overall operating rate of coke enterprises has picked up, the sales situation has improved and the inventory in the plant has decreased. In terms of demand, the steel plant started normally. With the unsealing of many regions, the resumption of production of steel plants that had previously reduced or stopped production due to the obstruction of coke arrival is expected to be further strengthened, the rigid demand for coke is increased, and the procurement is more active. In particular, the steel plant with low inventory of coke in the plant has a strong willingness to replenish the stock. On the whole, the steel plant has a production increase plan in the later stage, the demand for coke is not reduced, and the willingness to replenish the warehouse is strong, which drives the mentality of coke enterprises to improve, and the market bullish mood is strong. We expect that the coke market may operate smoothly in the short term.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) Risk of a sharp fall in coal prices. 3) Policy change risk
