Maotai e-commerce platform landed and beer upgrading logic continued
From March 28 to April 1, the food and beverage index increased by 2.9%, ranking 10th in the primary sub industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 0.5pct. Among the sub industries, meat products (7.0%), snacks (3.8%) and dairy products (3.5%) are relatively leading. The official operation of Maotai liquor e-commerce platform this week indicates that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) company’s channel reform has officially entered the second half dominated by TOC. On the one hand, it is to undertake the subsequent increment of Maotai liquor; On the other hand, strengthen the company’s control over product prices, minimize the price deviation caused by financial attributes, and restore the consumption attributes of Maotai liquor. Affected by the e-commerce platform, the early approval price of Maotai liquor will go down. After the e-commerce platform goes online, the product SKU and shipment will gradually increase according to the market environment. Offline wine purchase is still one of the main channels, and the product price will return to a stable and reasonable level according to the market supply and demand. At the same time, the company released the 2021 annual report and 2022q1 performance forecast, which basically met the previous expectations. The multi-dimensional market-oriented reform measures support the strong performance of 2022q1 and are expected to accelerate growth throughout the year. This week, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) released the annual report of 2021, which can be found that high-end beer has increased rapidly Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) year ton price increased by 7%, which is more due to structural upgrading. The growth rate of “Qingdao” main brand is faster than that of “Laoshan”. While Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) the sales volume and revenue of high-grade liquor maintained an increase of more than 40%. The annual report reflects the continuous deduction of beer high-end logic. We expect that the beer industry will still have the possibility of raising prices slightly in 2022, and the structure will still be upgraded upward. The short-term epidemic has a negative impact on the mobile sales of beer, but from the medium and long-term perspective, the upgrading of the beer industry will benefit the leading enterprises.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) forecasts 2022Q1 revenue and profits growth of 18% and 19% respectively, showing a flourishing trend of high-end liquor Baijiu in the Spring Festival. It also reflects the obvious effect of sales reform. The e-commerce platform was officially launched, and the channel reform went further. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) forecast 2021q4 to achieve revenue growth of 11% and net profit growth of about 11%. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of movable sales is good. After the management of the company is stable, it is expected to carry out the work of raising prices. It is estimated that the double-digit growth rate will be completed in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) it is estimated that the revenue and profit from January to February will increase by more than 35% and 50%, mainly due to the significant improvement of product structure, the growth momentum under the epidemic situation remains unchanged, and the annual performance is still possible to exceed expectations. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) released the annual report. In 2021q4, the revenue benefited from the price increase to achieve accelerated growth, but the increase of cost price put pressure on the profit. In 2022, the planned revenue and profit will increase by 12%, which will be realized by reducing cost and increasing efficiency, accelerating market transformation and product innovation. It is suggested to lay out the bottom and hold it for a long time. (5) Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) : equity incentive is implemented. After the implementation of the new national standard, the milk powder industry will start a new round of formula upgrading to accelerate the medium and high-end of the milk powder industry. The company is expected to fully benefit from the dividend of the new round of formula upgrading. At the same time, the second growth curve of SA is opened, and the cosmetics market is expected to relay.
Market performance: Food and beverage outperformed the market
From March 28 to April 1, the food and beverage index increased by 2.9%, ranking 10th in the primary sub industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 0.5pct. Among the sub industries, meat products (7.0%), snacks (3.8%) and dairy products (3.5%) are relatively leading. In terms of individual stocks, Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) and other stocks rose ahead Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) , Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) , Juneyao Grand Healthy Drinks Co.Ltd(605388) , etc. led the decline.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
