Industrial metals: the United States announced the release of a large amount of oil reserves, and the dollar strengthened, but inflationary pressure is still on. The US labor market has improved, and the single quarter employment rate has returned to its pre epidemic level. Residents’ willingness to work has increased, and overseas economic recovery may accelerate. Under the background of high inflation, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has been further strengthened, and industrial metals are under pressure. In China, according to the National Bureau of statistics, China’s official manufacturing PMI, non manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI in March were 49.5, 48.4 and 48.8 respectively, and the three indexes fell below the critical point. However, under the 5.5% GDP target of the two sessions, the market is still confident in the recovery of consumption after the recovery of the epidemic, and the restrained production and demand may recover gradually. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Copper: supply and demand are weak, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level
LME copper closed at US $10270 / ton, down about 0.07% during the week. The inventory increased by 16.9% over the week. Under the international Russia Ukraine contradiction, the impact of energy contradiction on copper price has been weakened. Overseas stocks remained low, while inflation expectations remained, supporting the high volatility of copper prices. In China, the Qingming Festival is approaching, with repeated outbreaks. Especially in East and South China, where copper is concentrated downstream, the consumer side is restrained and transactions remain light. However, in general, the maintenance and decontamination of inventory, the establishment of consumption inflection point, and the evolution of China’s supply and demand environment from loose to balanced state still provide some support for prices.
Aluminum: the Russian Ukrainian crisis has been suspended, and the inventory in China’s peak season has dragged down aluminum prices
LME aluminum closed at US $3440 / ton, down about 5.10% during the week. LEM inventory was 636000 tons, with a weekly decrease of 6.2%. Basically, according to SMM statistics, China’s social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Thursday was 1041000 tons, 2000 tons more than last Thursday and 11000 tons more than last Monday. Under the expectation of supply improvement brought by the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the aluminum price is under pressure, but geopolitics continues to repeat, which is difficult to form substantive bad in the short term, and the focus of aluminum price pricing gradually turns to China. From the perspective of China’s fundamentals, the epidemic has little impact on the supply side. The inventory of some electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, and the demand has been significantly affected. The spot in East and South China has maintained a discount, the short-term inventory has the risk of continuing to increase, and the upward price of aluminum still faces great pressure.
Tin: the operating rate of solder picked up and the price of tin picked up
LME tin closed at US $44010 / ton, up 4.04% from last week. In terms of inventory, LME inventory continued to be destocked to 2000 tons, down 14.7% on a weekly basis. On the supply side, according to SMM research, the operating rate of Yunnan Jiangxi smelter remained stable this week, and the repeated epidemic in Myanmar has not affected the import of raw materials at the mine side for the time being. On the demand side, according to SMM research, the operating rate of Chinese solder enterprises rebounded sharply month on month in March. Some enterprises had been affected by the epidemic and stopped production for a short time, making the output slightly lower than expected. Now it is gradually recovering, boosting demand.
Zinc: the energy cost is still supported, and the zinc price continues to rise
LME zinc closed at US $4331 / ton, up 6.15% from last week. Internationally, European governments are currently discussing the policy of subsidizing high energy consuming enterprises and the policy of decoupling the price of natural gas and electricity, but it is difficult to put it into practice in the short term, and the energy problem will continue to support the price rise of Lun zinc. The tension between Russia and Ukraine tends to be normalized. In China, on the supply side, unexpected maintenance and shutdown of Chinese smelters occurred this week, resulting in the output falling to about 515000 tons in March and April, which promoted the rising trend of zinc prices in Shanghai. On the demand side, the serious epidemic situation in China has led to varying degrees of traffic and transportation control, and it is difficult for enterprises to replenish their raw material inventory. As a result, enterprises in some regions have successively reduced production and operation, and the demand for zinc has been passively reduced.
Energy metals: since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has continued to rise sharply, leading to a surge in the price of batteries and downstream terminal markets. The terminal demand continues to increase, and the supply is difficult to meet in the short term. Under the shortage of supply and demand, the price of energy metal commodities remains high. The game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has intensified significantly, and the price of energy metals has fallen slightly due to the negative feedback of demand in the short term. Among them, the price of nickel sulfate returned to the fundamentals and led the decline due to the end of the early futures rising event. It is expected that with the gradual stabilization of energy metal prices and the marginal improvement of supply chain problems, the restrained demand will gradually recover. It is suggested to be followed by the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Lithium: lithium carbonate fell slightly, and the profits of the industrial chain were further transferred to the mine end
The price of battery grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly this week, and the price of lithium hydroxide remained stable. The price of SMM battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 499 Zhongrun Resources Investment Corporation(000506) 000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 0500 yuan / ton lower than last week. On the supply side, the operating rate of mineral material enterprises is relatively stable. On the demand side, due to the gradual increase of temperature rise and the increase of supply in Qinghai, the overall order of cathode materials decreased slightly in April: on the three aspects, the low and medium nickel weakened slightly due to the impact of nickel price; In terms of iron lithium, orders are affected due to the suspension of some terminal models and the high inventory of battery factories. At the same time, considering the weak demand for lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganese oxide caused by the weak demand for digital and small power, the procurement demand for materials is relatively light. Some traders continued to reduce prices and sell goods, leading to a decline in the market quotation.
Cobalt: both supply and demand are weak, and the price is weak and volatile
This week, the price of SMM electrolytic cobalt was 555000575000 yuan / ton, and the average price decreased by 4000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM cobalt intermediate products is US $33.5-33.9/lb, and the average price is US $0.95/lb higher than last week. Electrolytic cobalt prices continued to decline this week. The continuous consumption of inventory has reached the state of extreme shortage. Due to the impact of the epidemic, there is less production demand in the downstream, both supply and demand are reduced, and the surface of electric cobalt continues to be changeable, resulting in the weak and volatile price of electric cobalt this week. The price of intermediate products rose slightly this week, mainly because the overseas electrolytic cobalt remained strong, the superimposed logistics situation still did not improve significantly, and the price of intermediate products rose slowly.
Nickel: nickel price returns to fundamentals, and the price center of gravity moves down
Shanghai nickel closed 223000 yuan / ton this week, down 14.8% on a weekly basis. On the supply side, the Philippines has gradually passed the rainy season, the shipment volume has gradually increased, and the loose supply has led to a sharp rise in nickel ore prices, which is lack of power. In terms of transportation, there is no obvious fluctuation in sea freight. The epidemic has caused serious delay after ships arrive at the port. This part of demurrage is borne by the seller, which also increases the cost of the iron plant. In terms of pure nickel, affected by the epidemic, the spot supply and demand are equal, and the transaction is light. However, the supply side uncertainty is still strong, and the nickel price is temporarily high to maintain stability. This week, the weekly inventory of pure nickel in SMM six places accumulated 13721 tons, an increase of 400 tons over last week. Among them, the inventory of nickel beans was 2206 tons, an increase of 300 tons over last week.
Precious metals: the United States announced the release of crude oil reserves to combat inflation, and precious metals fell under pressure
COMEX gold closed at US $1923.5 per ounce this week, down 2.06% from last week. COMEX silver futures closed at $24.8 an ounce, down 3.08% from last week. Under the background of high inflation and geopolitical crisis, risk aversion may support precious metal prices. According to Xinhua news agency, Biden announced that he would release 1 million barrels of oil a day and 180 million barrels a day from the U.S. strategic oil reserves in the next six months to cope with the current situation of supply shortage and high oil prices. The dollar index continued to strengthen and reported 98.57 on Friday, depressing the price of precious metals. The market’s expectation of raising interest rates strengthened or further led to the continuous rise of the US dollar, and the gold price was further under pressure.
Rare earth: the light rare earth market is weak and stable as a whole, and the fundamentals are good for a long time
The light rare earth market was generally weak and stable this week, the smelting separation index increased, but the production capacity was limited, the output was difficult to increase significantly, and the waste enterprises expanded their production. However, the waste supply needed to depend on the neodymium iron boron orders. The ionic ore was tight, the import of Myanmar ore was limited, the output of some enterprises decreased, and affected by the epidemic, the logistics in some areas was poor, the enterprise production was affected, the production and shipment were stopped, and the overall supply remained tight. Downstream demand is still expected to be repaired. The demand of downstream wind power and new energy enterprises is developing rapidly, and the fundamentals of rare earth are improving for a long time. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has been continuously reduced to 95 Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) 0000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price of praseodymium and neodymium metal market has been reduced to 1.17-1.2 million yuan / ton.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macroeconomic performance was lower than expected
