Key investment points:
China’s epidemic disturbance superimposed on high overseas inflation and high metal price shocks. In China, under the control of the epidemic, the obstruction of industrial metal logistics intensified this week, and the destocking slowed down or accumulated slightly. In the short term, the logistics impact under the control of the epidemic is difficult to solve, and the downstream consumption may still be restrained to some extent. Overseas, on April 3, Russia’s natural gas supply to some countries has been interrupted. Energy problems in Europe continue to ferment, and high energy consuming metals such as aluminum and zinc still have strong cost support.
Industrial metals
Copper: the marginal impact of the epidemic is magnified, and the pace of destocking in China has slowed down. Basically, China has been seriously affected by the epidemic this week, and the pace of destocking has slowed down. On the raw material side, with the gradual increase of overseas copper mines, the focus of spot TC transaction of copper concentrate is expected to continue to rise.
Aluminum: the energy disturbance in Europe intensified, and the pressure on overseas supply remained. On March 31, China’s electrolytic aluminum social inventory accumulated from 2000 tons to 1041000 tons month on month. The operating rate of downstream aluminum cables declined due to the delay of raw material arrival, and the removal of electrolytic aluminum slowed down. Overseas, Russia’s announcement of “ruble settlement of natural gas” may aggravate the disturbance of natural gas supply in Europe in the short term, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum in Europe is still strongly supported.
Zinc: the impact of the epidemic intensifies. In terms of reducing production and inventory in the downstream, China’s refined zinc slightly accumulated 0200 tons on April 1. In the downstream, affected by the epidemic, some enterprises in East China have reduced production and stopped production. It is expected that the downstream operation level will still decline in the short term, and the pace of going to the warehouse is facing certain pressure.
Precious metals
Gold: inflation expectations remain unchanged, the long-term and short-term interest rates of US bonds are upside down, and the gold price is still supported. From the inflation data, the core PCE reached 5.4% in February, which is still in the upward channel. The average hourly wage in March increased by 5.6% year-on-year. On the whole, the wage inflation spiral path is still deductive. On April 1, the yield of 10-year and 2-year US bonds was upside down (6BP), which reflected to some extent that under the interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve, the market was still strongly supported by the expectations of rising long-term enterprise costs, narrowing profits and further economic slowdown or even recession.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co.Ltd(600497) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk tips: Overseas geopolitical risks; Supply has increased more than expected; The demand is less than expected.
