Market review: this week (March 28 – April 1), Shenwan food and beverage industry increased by 2.90% this week, higher than the 2.19% increase of Shanghai stock index; Among them, beer (Shenwan class III, the same below) (2.96%), health products (2.88%) and meat products (2.81%) ranked first among the three sectors of Shenwan class III food and beverage; Dairy products (- 0.41%), soft drinks (- 0.32%) and other alcohol (- 0.18%) accounted for the top three declines in the three sectors of Shenwan food and beverage.
Baijiu: “I Moutai” on-line stable price of Pu Mao, followed by a focus on the impact of the duration of the epidemic on May 1 consumer scenarios. This week, the “I Maotai” app was officially launched, and pumao was not launched on the official e-commerce platform. After the downward expectation of the rating weakened, the rating of pumao stabilized; Since March 31, the first four days of “I Maotai” e-commerce platform treasure Maotai / tiger year Maotai / Maotai 1935 have put in 1.2 / 6.1 / 4.9 tons respectively, and the cumulative winning ratio is 0.19% / 0.55% (tiger Maotai 500ml) / 0.72% respectively. Follow up focuses on the potential impact of the duration of the epidemic on the May 1 banquet scene: the two quarter is Baijiu consumption season, sales and consumption accounts for about 20% of the total year, including high-end wine consumption scenes, including gifts, business banquets, banquets and other relatively dispersed, regional wine consumption scenes are relatively concentrated, mainly around the May 1 banquet scene. In the follow-up, we will focus on the duration of the epidemic in the second quarter. If the epidemic lasts for a long time, the banquet scenes during May day will still be under control. According to the calculation of wine enterprises with different price characteristics, it is assumed that “the consumption of high-end / sub high-end / regional leading wine enterprises during May Day accounts for 25% / 30% / 50% of the consumption in the second quarter respectively, and the banquet scenes account for 20% / 40% / 60% of the consumption of high-end / sub high-end / regional leading wine enterprises during May Day respectively”, In extreme cases, assuming that “the epidemic lasts for a long time, the banquet scene during May Day continues to be controlled, and it is difficult to make up for it in the future”, the high-end / sub high-end / regional leading liquor enterprises will lose 1.0% / 2.4% / 6.4% of the annual revenue respectively; If the epidemic was basically controlled in mid April, the banquet scenes before and after May Day were basically unaffected, and the impact on Baijiu consumption was limited. In April 3rd, a total of about 6000 medical teams, a total of 10 teams of medical teams arrived in Shanghai to support the epidemic. We believe that after the follow-up epidemic control, the normal consumption scenario of banquets and drinking is expected to accelerate. Baijiu consumption in the two quarter should not be pessimistic.
Popular products: recommend the subject with controllable cost and the demand is expected to pick up first. In the second quarter of 2021, affected by the epidemic, the consumer end such as supermarkets and catering was under pressure, the demand for mass products weakened, and the cost pressure began to appear, resulting in a decline in the revenue and profit of mass product enterprises. Since the second half of 2021, many popular goods enterprises have raised their sales prices to cope with rising costs. It has been gradually implemented in 2022, and the consumption scene in 2022 will be repaired. We believe that from the second quarter of 2022, some food enterprises are expected to achieve restorative growth under a low base, focusing on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , which has relatively low cost pressure, and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , which has gradually recovered on the demand side, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and others whose product structure is expected to be continuously upgraded.
Investment advice: Although on the one hand, many short-term and many epidemic restrictions repeatedly Baijiu consumption scene, on the other hand, the cost continues to rise, the public goods price hedging cost increases logic or postponed, but the trend of consumption recovery is unchanged. After the follow-up epidemic control, the normal scenario of the consumer scenario is expected to accelerate, and recommend a higher level of high-end liquor Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and regional leading liquor enterprises Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , etc., also suggests paying attention to the elasticity of the sub Baijiu liquor after the economic warming. Volkswagen products is preferred to be the leader with industry pricing power and relatively controllable cost, and pay attention to Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
Risk tips: the adjustment of restrictive industrial policies exceeded expectations, the scattered occurrence and control of the epidemic affected the recovery of consumption scenarios, the risk of higher than expected rise in raw material costs, food safety risks, etc
