The position and valuation level of computer public offering are at the bottom of history, entering the bottom grinding period, with medium and long-term upward space. 1) The computer industry itself has the characteristics of flat industrial chain, high opacity, stable growth rate, large long-term space and many new directions, and the valuation disturbance will be greater than the fundamental fluctuation. Even if the boom and the overall valuation of the computer industry have not reached the bottom, we believe that the overall valuation trend of the computer industry will not be clear enough. 2) In terms of the proportion of public offering positions, it is at the historical bottom level since 2013. According to wind data, by the end of 2021, information transmission, software and information technology services accounted for about 1.17% of the net fund value and 4.19% of the market value of stock investment. 3) In terms of valuation level, as of April 1, 2022, the pettm of computer (Shenwan) index is about 44 times, which is at the 7.45% quantile in the past five years; The corresponding P / E ratio in 2022 is 27 times.
Weak recession should have been the best beta environment for the computer industry, but since 2022, the international environment and epidemic outbreak have depressed the market risk appetite. 1) Under the weak recession, the computer industry has clear comparative advantages, the growth certainty is better than that of other industries, and the stable and loose liquidity expectation has a preference for assets with large long-term space. 2) However, since the beginning of 2022, A-Shares have experienced a sharp correction under multiple uncertainties. Year to date, the wandequan a index has fallen by 13.31%. Internally, the continued spread of the epidemic in Shanghai and other places may exacerbate concerns about economic growth. In terms of external environment, since February, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused considerable geopolitical and global inflation risks, which has brought a high degree of uncertainty to the economy and market; On the other hand, in late March, Powell hinted that a single interest rate increase might exceed 25bp, and the fear of liquidity shock may intensify. Under the influence of multiple uncertain factors, the market risk appetite has decreased significantly, and the cumulative correction of the computer sector since the beginning of the year is about 18%.
In the short-term window period of China's foreign environment, the computer industry still suggests that high-quality stocks should pay more attention. 1) In terms of the external environment, the progress of the new round of Russia Ukraine negotiations has effectively boosted the performance of the global capital market in the short term. On March 29, the stock markets in Europe and the United States showed a sharp rebound. As of April 1, it has been repaired to close to the level before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; At the same time, there was a certain correction in gold and crude oil, reflecting the expectation that the international situation will slow down in the short term. 2) In terms of China's development, on the economic side, policy actions have been gradually implemented. For example, on March 30, the registration of zhongpiao of many real estate enterprises was accepted, and the digital economy and calculation in the East and West in terms of new IT infrastructure are also expected to be gradually promoted; On the market side, on March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems, and released support signals for real estate, zhonggai shares and platform economic supervision, so as to continue to make efforts in all aspects of follow-up policies. 3) The growth rate of the software industry is characterized by sustained and rapid growth. In the first two months of this year, China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) business revenue increased by 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience. At the same time, infrastructure, data security, industrial digitization and information technology innovation under the traction of the general trend of digital economy are facing a long-term growth trend. The focus of investment can focus on the industry and the company itself from beta environment.
Investment suggestion: China's market risk appetite will be gradually restored. Considering the significant long-term value of the computer industry, we will select high-quality computer stocks with "stable valuation, high growth and good track" in the medium term and pay more attention to them. The core targets include China stock market news, Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) , Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , etc. Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) , etc., which are affected by the international environment or epidemic but have a clear track growth, can be paid more attention to gradually.
Risk tips: the economic downturn exceeded expectations, the uncertainty of the international situation increased, the fiscal expenditure was less than expected, and the trade friction intensified
