This week’s Chemical Market Overview
This week, the main indexes showed a shock upward trend, of which Shenwan chemical rose 0.48%, underperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen Masterwork Group Co.Ltd(300195) %. From top to bottom, this year will be a complex market. Negative factors will disturb investors’ expectations from time to time, such as the changes in the Russian Ukrainian war, the price trend of commodities, the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the changes in the epidemic situation and the changes in demand. However, a large part of the negative has been reflected in the stock price, and the valuation and cost performance of many high-quality stocks have gradually become prominent. Looking back, we are expected to see more marginal upward momentum, For example, the edge of the epidemic is better and the policy side is better. The suggestions can be more optimistic. In terms of targets, the chemical fertilizer industry chain, some new energy chemical materials and targets with better than expected performance are strong, while covid-19 industry chain and targets with lower than expected performance are under pressure. In terms of investment direction, we believe that the best direction is to lay out high-quality growth stocks, followed by chemical white horse stocks.
Portfolio recommendation
\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 208 Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486)
Major events of this week
BASF said that if the supply of natural gas to Ludwigshafen base in Germany is reduced to less than half of the current demand, it will stop production.
BASF Ludwigshafen base is an important producer of VA, VE and TDI in the world: Ludwigshafen base is the largest integrated chemical production base in the world and the headquarters of BASF. According to statistics, the production base has a VA capacity of 75000 tons, a ve capacity of 20000 tons and a TDI capacity of 300000 tons, accounting for about 20%, 15% and 9% of the global capacity respectively. In addition, the base is also BASF polystyrene, butyl octanol An important production base of benzene and other petrochemical products. Earlier, BASF had announced the price increase of all polyurethane products in Europe from April 1 due to the problem of natural gas supply. The possible shutdown of Ludwigshafen base will exacerbate the tension in the supply of relevant chemical products.
The supply of natural gas in Europe continues to be tight. It is suggested to pay attention to the varieties with high production capacity in Europe: at present, the European natural gas inventory is only 293twh, 13% lower than the same period last year. Although the import of Russian natural gas in Europe has decreased this year, it still accounts for 24% of its total import. If the two sides further reduce the natural gas trade due to the “payment dispute” of natural gas, the supply of natural gas in Europe is expected to continue to be tight. Natural gas is an important industrial energy and raw material for some chemicals in Europe. BASF said that in Europe, 60% of its natural gas is used to produce the energy needed – steam and electricity, and the remaining 40% is used to produce basic chemicals. According to statistics, vitamins, methionine, calcium pantothenate, MDI, TDI and caprolactam account for a relatively high proportion of production capacity in Europe. It is suggested to focus on MDI leader Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , vitamin leader Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) and methionine leader Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) .
The United States will release its crude oil reserves to a record. The White House released a fact sheet on energy related measures, saying that Biden will announce the largest strategic oil reserve (SPR) release plan in U.S. history, which will release 1 million barrels of oil every day for six months, and the cumulative release of oil reserves will exceed 180 million barrels. The US government will also urge the International Energy Agency (IEA) to coordinate the supply of reserve oil in other oil consuming countries.
Risk tips
The epidemic affects China’s foreign demand, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, and international policy changes affect the industrial layout.
