Precious metals: Russia and Ukraine risk landing, gold price high shock, need to wait for further signal guidance. ① Nominal interest rate: during the week, the interest rate of ten-year US bonds fell 10bp to 2.38%, under pressure of 2.5%. After the first interest rate increase in the United States was implemented, the action force of ten-year US bonds weakened, easing the pressure on gold prices. In terms of data, the core PCE index of the United States recorded an annual rate of 5.4% in February, slightly lower than the expected 5.5%, still reaching a new high since 1983. The ADP Employment & initial application data of the United States reflected that the employment market was relatively optimistic, and the U.S. data still pointed to the sustained high inflation in the short term and the more radical interest rate increase policy in the long term; ② Inflation expectation: Biden decided to significantly release the strategic reserve of crude oil within the week, but the increase of 1 million barrels per day is still difficult to make up for the gap of 2 million barrels per day expected by the market, and the market inflation expectation is difficult to cool down; The situation in Russia and Ukraine was repeated. On Tuesday, Ukraine released a easing signal, and gold fell back in response; Then the Russian Defense Ministry said it was redeploying troops in Kiev and Chernigov as planned, and Ukraine was also calling for more arms assistance. The easing news from Russia and Ukraine and the release of crude oil reserves by the United States have increased the uncertainty of gold price. It is expected that gold price will remain high and volatile in the short term, and we need to wait for clearer signal guidance.
The epidemic situation continues to be strong inside and outside enterprises, and the basic commodities are disturbed by the downstream enterprises. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the situation in Russia and Ukraine eased on Tuesday, resulting in commodity supply risks, rising energy costs and cooling inflation concerns, and the overall pressure on metal prices; ② In terms of supply, this week, China cspt team confirmed that the spot TC guide price of copper concentrate in the second quarter was $80 / ton, an increase of $10 / ton compared with Q1. At present, the spot price of TC rebounded strongly to around $78 / ton, reflecting the continuous easing of concentrate tension; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper inventory was 544700 tons, up from 0200 tons last week. Among them, China’s social inventory decreased by 8200 tons, the bonded area decreased by 6000 tons, and LME inventory increased by 13400 tons. The blockade of the epidemic road caused the downstream processing enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang to stop production due to the shortage of raw material inventory, the downstream operating rate continued to decline, the spot trading was light, and the reduction rate of China’s inventory slowed down. At present, under the interference of the epidemic situation in the copper industry chain, supply and demand are weak, market sentiment is cautious, and copper prices remain high and volatile. After the epidemic, downstream consumption performance will provide clearer guidance for copper prices. (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: on Wednesday, 45 Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) 700 tons of LME Inventory were removed from the stock exchange, including 42100 tons of LME inventory. From 04 to 1069100 tons of China’s social Treasury; ② Supply: according to Baichuan information, the United States announced the direct delivery of natural gas to Europe, and Russia and Ukraine began a new round of negotiations. The news alleviated the concerns of energy supply and long-term energy prices, weakened the speculation corresponding to the disturbance of overseas supply, and LME aluminum prices fell sharply during the week. In China, the starting capacity of electrolytic aluminum officially exceeded 40 million tons to 40.05 million tons this week, and the new production + resumption capacity reached 800000 tons within the week. However, considering that it takes about one month to resume production and put into operation, the actual output has not yet reached the level of existing production capacity. At present, China’s remaining recoverable + put into production energy is 2.19 million tons, but the actual landing situation remains to be observed; ③ Demand: this week, the epidemic continued to interfere with downstream construction and procurement. Jiangsu, one of the mainstream consumer provinces, was significantly affected. The obstruction of material transportation led to the failure of goods to arrive on time, resulting in a slight squeeze on the inventory at the processing end and the risk of delay of downstream orders. When there is a demand for reducing storage in the middle reaches, the peak of construction in April may move back. Suggestions and concerns include the following: the ‘ China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) .
Energy metals: the procurement is weakening, the price of energy metals fluctuates, and the spot inventory remains in short supply. (1) Lithium: the price of battery grade lithium carbonate during the week was the same as last week, at 517500 yuan / ton. At present, the lithium salt inventory of the material factory is about to reach the bottom, and a new round of purchasing season may be ushered in in April. Allkem raised the quotation of spodumene to US $5000 / ton in the second quarter, and the cost support price increased. It is expected that the annual average transaction price of lithium carbonate may reach about 450000 yuan / ton; (2) Nickel: nickel sulfate fell 1.50% to 49300 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel fell 4900 yuan / ton to 57900 yuan / ton this week. The trading of nickel sulfate spot market continues to improve. On the one hand, the price of nickel has basically fallen to a reasonable level. In addition, the inventory of downstream raw materials before Qingming Festival is low, and there is a demand for centralized preparation. At present, there is still a fear of heights in the downstream as a whole, and the upstream and downstream transactions are difficult, so it is necessary to further observe the actual performance of consumption; (3) Cobalt: cobalt sulfate fell 1.62% to 121500 yuan / ton this week. Due to the delay of logistics in China, the downstream small and medium-sized processing plants were shut down due to the epidemic, and the demand performance was poor. Fear of decline increased the willingness of upstream traders to sell goods, dragging down the prices of electric cobalt and cobalt salt. The high pressure of raw material prices is difficult to be transmitted to the downstream, and the profit margin of cobalt sulfate processing enterprises fell 24.39% to 33700 yuan / ton. It is suggested to focus on the following: ‘ Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials(Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
