In March, the delivery volume of new forces warmed up, and Xiaopeng ranked first again: the delivery volume of 1q22 new forces increased by 100% year-on-year to 92000 vehicles, which was generally in line with expectations. 1) 1q22 Xiaopeng’s delivery volume increased by 159% to 35000 vehicles year-on-year (vs. guideline 3350034000 vehicles), and the delivery volume in March increased by 202% to 15000 vehicles year-on-year; 2) The ideal delivery volume of 1q22 increased by 152% to 32000 vehicles year-on-year (vs. guideline 3 Shenzhen Sed Industry Co.Ltd(000032) 000 vehicles), and the delivery volume in March increased by 125% to 11000 vehicles year-on-year; 3) The delivery volume of 1q22 Weilai increased by 29% year-on-year to 26000 vehicles (vs. 250 Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) 0 vehicles under the guidance), and the delivery volume in March increased by 38% year-on-year to 9985 vehicles. We judged that the performance of the new forces in March was generally in line with expectations; Among them, the demand of some users of Xiaopeng / ideal is in advance and superimposed with retained orders due to the price adjustment. It is expected that the supply chain such as batteries / chips and logistics are still the leading factors determining the delivery volume.
1q22 Tesla‘s global delivery exceeded 300000 vehicles: 1q22 Tesla‘s global delivery increased by 68% year-on-year to 310000 vehicles, slightly lower than our expectation; Among them, 1q22model3 / y increased by 62% year-on-year to 295000 vehicles (delivery accounted for 95.3%). We expect that the delivery volume of 1q22 Shanghai factory Model3 / Y (including export) accounts for nearly 60%. The logistics / delivery extension and shutdown caused by the Chinese epidemic in March slightly dragged down the impulse at the end of the quarter.
The retained orders are stable, and the delivery volume in April depends on the epidemic situation, supply chain / logistics and production capacity: new forces has successively adjusted the price for the rising cost of national subsidy and retreat slope + battery (Weilai or the price for the modified model); We expect that 1) on the basis of price adjustment, auto enterprises are still expected to maintain the performance of new orders by synchronously expanding their rights and interests; 2) In view of the pre demand of some users and the superposition of retained orders caused by the price adjustment, the delivery volume in April is expected to depend on the epidemic situation, supply chain / logistics and production capacity; 3) It is expected that 2E will become one of the factors leading the new production of the existing 2E factory or the new production of the 2022e factory, and the new production of the 2022e factory and the new delivery of the 202E factory will be one of the ideal factors.
Supply chain and capacity are still the key words of 2022e Tesla: we are optimistic about the demand release of 2022e China + overseas new energy vehicles and the growth prospect of Tesla sales. 1) Since December 31, 2021, domestic Model3 / y has experienced three price adjustments (currently only domestic Model3 rear drive version also enjoys subsidies), but the order performance is still stable (the delivery cycle of domestic Model3 / y reaches 15-20 + weeks / 10-20 weeks respectively); 2) The Berlin plant was officially put into operation on March 22. It is expected that the ramp up of production capacity is expected to partially offset the impact of the shutdown of 2q22e Shanghai plant (the epidemic has led to the shutdown of Shanghai plant on March 28, and the resumption time has not been determined), and alleviate the pressure on the export capacity of 2h22e Shanghai plant; 3) Continue to be optimistic about the ramp up prospect of 2h22e Shanghai plant expansion and the production driven delivery of Texas / Berlin plant. It is expected that the global delivery of 2022e is expected to reach 1.5 million + vehicles.
Investment suggestion: we continue to be optimistic about the steady increase of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile penetration rate. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e will be about 5-5.5 million. In terms of traditional car enterprises, recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) ; In terms of Tesla and new forces, recommend Tesla and pay attention to ideals for a long time.
Risk warning: the production capacity and supply chain are not as expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Industry demand is less than expected; The launch and climbing of models are not as expected; Cost control is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; Market / policy risk.
