This week, the willingness of piglets and breeding pigs to make up the fence is differentiated, and pig breeding stocks trade time for space.
① pig prices rose by 2.7% on a weekly basis. On Sunday, the national pig price was 12.63 yuan / kg, up 2.7% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 18.07 yuan / kg, down 0.9% on a weekly basis; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs was 531.05 yuan / head, and the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 292.39 yuan / head.
② the proportion of low weight pigs dropped to the lowest in recent years, and the willingness of piglets and breeding pigs to make up for slaughter differentiated. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (3.25-3.31): the proportion of pigs within 90kg in China accounted for 5.84%, and the week on week ratio decreased by 0.63 percentage points, the lowest level since the non plague; This week, the market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm was 408 yuan / head, with a week on month increase of 0.2%, 165% higher than the bottom 154 yuan / head, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1622 yuan / head, with a week on month decrease of 0.6% and 31% higher than the bottom 1238 yuan / head. ③ The pig price is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, so time can change space. The turning point of production capacity of China’s pig breeding industry appeared in June last year: according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the number of fertile sows in China will increase from 45.64 million at the end of June last year to 42.68 million at the end of February this year, a cumulative decrease of 6.5%; According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.5% month on month in February this year, which is still in the downward channel. In March, the price of live pigs continued to be low. We expect the number of fertile sows in March to continue to decline. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience the bottom grinding stage this year, and the pig price is expected to enter the upward cycle in 2023. We’re using the expected volume of 2022 to measure the market value of each pig’s head as we’re counting the expected roll of the year in 2022 to measure the market value of each pig’s head, which is the market value of a pig’s head, with Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) \ , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) .
The price of white feather chicken products increased by 2.7% on a weekly basis, and the price of yellow feather chicken increased on a weekly basis.
① the price of white feather chicken products increased by 2.7% on a weekly basis. In the 12th week of 2022 (3.21-3.27), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 18.81 yuan / set, with a decrease of 8.8% on a weekly basis; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 1.038 million sets, up 0.3% month on month; On Friday, the price of white feather chicken products was 9880 yuan / ton, up 2.7% week on week. China Poultry Industry Association released the February report: from January to February 2022, the national white feather ancestral renewal volume was 161400 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 35.7%, of which the ancestral renewal volume was 36800 sets in February, a year-on-year sharp decrease of 76.6%. With the decline of the price of parents’ chicken seedlings, the willingness of ancestral renewal began to decline. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased by 24.3% year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose week on week. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of April 1, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast chicken was 6.56 yuan / kg, up 10.8% on a weekly basis and 1.9% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.86 yuan / kg, up 0.7% on a weekly basis and down 5.5% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of native chicken was 8.31 yuan / kg, up 1.2% in the week and down 2.2% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 8.72 yuan / kg, up 2.5% on a weekly basis and 12.2% on a year-on-year basis.
In March, the prosperity of veterinary vaccine remained low, and swine vaccine focused on the progress of non plague vaccine.
In March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: foot-and-mouth vaccine 37.5%, Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 11.9%, porcine circadian vaccine – 21.5%, highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine – 25.8%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 37.9%, diarrhea vaccine – 40.9% and classical swine fever vaccine – 43.2%. From January to March 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of batches of vaccines issued for pigs was from high to low: foot-and-mouth vaccine 2.4%, highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine – 7.6%, porcine circadian vaccine – 28.8%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 29.8%, diarrhea vaccine – 46.6%, classical swine fever vaccine – 47.6% and Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 52.5%. We believe that the pig price is still at the bottom stage in 2022, and the prosperity of pig vaccine may remain low. It is suggested to focus on the progress of non plague vaccine.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and China’s corn and soybean meal are expected to remain high.
① the commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of seed industry. We judge the impact as follows: I) GM corn seeds may be sold in the second half of 2023. The draft of amendments to the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production can be carried out as soon as 2023, and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. ② Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in March predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.2%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.2 percentage points lower than that in February, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in March: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 is 4.83 million tons, which is the same as that in February and 3.24 million tons lower than that in 2020 / 21. In the year of 21 / 22, China’s corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. On Friday, the spot price of corn was 283706 yuan / ton, up 0.2% on a weekly basis and down 1.8% year-on-year; ③ Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The USDA’s supply and demand report in March predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 24.7%, 3.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.4 percentage points lower than that predicted in February; The global soybean meal inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 5.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from 20 / 21, up 0.3 percentage points from the predicted value in February, and still at the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in March: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 is 170000 tons, which is the same as that in February, a decrease of 5.89 million tons compared with that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022. On Friday, the spot price of soybean was 550474 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis, up 7.3% year-on-year; The spot price of soybean meal was 458971 yuan / ton, down 11.0% week on week and up 35.1% year on year.
China’s pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China’s pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China’s pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 20202021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet breeding countries. China’s pet consumption market has great growth potential. From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by the exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of the factory in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
