This week's market
This week (22.3.28-22.4.1), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, gem index and media board index rose by 2.2%, 1.3%, 1.1% and 5.0% respectively.
This week, the top three stocks in the sector rose Hubei Radio & Television Information Network Co.Ltd(000665) (31.0%), Dinglong Culture Co.Ltd(002502) (23.2%), Fuchun Technology Co.Ltd(300299) (23.2%), and the last three ST egger (- 17.6%), ST youjiu (- 14.3%), Beijing Shuzhi Technology Co.Ltd(300038) (- 12.2%).
Stocks in the overseas media sector rose this week, with the top three meituan-w (15.2%), baozun e-commerce (11.0%), ZuLong Entertainment (10.1%), the last three didi travel (- 13.8%), interesting headlines (- 11.9%), and Meitu company (- 11.1%).
This week's view
According to Caixin app, on March 30, the state Internet Information Office, the State Administration of Taxation and the State Administration of market supervision jointly issued the opinions on further standardizing the profit-making behavior of webcast and promoting the healthy development of the industry, requiring the webcast platform to submit the relevant information of the anchor to the relevant departments every half a year, and making it clear that the income tax of the anchor is calculated and levied in the way of audit and collection in principle. Previously (May 25, 2021), The seven departments jointly issued the measures for the administration of webcast marketing (for Trial Implementation), which clearly stipulates that the operators of the webcast room and the marketing personnel of the webcast belong to the market subjects defined as "operators on the platform" in the e-commerce law of the people's Republic of China. In terms of policy, we continue to strengthen the supervision of the live broadcasting industry. We believe that this regulatory policy is mainly aimed at the live broadcasting publishers with live broadcasting profit-making behavior (including enterprises or individual studios), which is conducive to standardizing the industry competitive environment and reducing the cost of normal audit of the live broadcasting platform for a long time.
According to the financial sector, on April 2, the CSRC announced the provisions on strengthening the confidentiality and archives management related to overseas securities issuance and listing of domestic enterprises (Draft for comments) to solicit opinions from the public. This revision will provide clearer guidelines for the confidentiality and file management related to overseas listing, and facilitate relevant market entities to carry out overseas issuance and listing activities efficiently in accordance with laws and regulations; It will guide enterprises to properly manage classified and sensitive information and fulfill the main responsibility of maintaining national information security; It will also help relevant regulatory authorities and overseas regulators to safely and efficiently carry out cross-border regulatory cooperation activities, including joint inspection, and jointly safeguard the rights and interests of global investors. We believe that on the issue of the audit draft of China concept shares, the relevant Chinese departments actively seek solutions to facilitate the overseas issuance and listing of domestic enterprises and reduce the delisting risk of China concept shares. On the whole, since the meeting of the Finance Committee on March 16, the policy regulatory environment has stabilized and slowed down, the media Internet direction regulatory policy is positive, and the regulatory environment continues to improve. The media industry's continuous high profitability and consistency of policies are important factors for the media industry to maintain the consistency of the previous policies. In the future, to occupy a dominant position in the big country game, we need to "have both soft and hard", and the output of soft power such as cultural content will become one of the important directions in the future. We continue to be optimistic about:
1. Industries that are strictly regulated by policies and have good business models, such as the Internet and games.
(1) Internet: affected by liquidity, China US game and strong regulatory expectations, the Internet sector has been killed sharply. This week, the CSRC announced the provisions (Draft for comments), which is conducive to reducing the delisting risk of zhonggai shares, and the Internet sector has benefited more. The overall mood of the Internet sector is expected to be more optimistic next week.
(2) games: the second edition number has been suspended for more than half a year, and the expectation of opening the edition number as soon as possible has gradually increased, and game companies with stressed performance are expected to benefit. This week, we released "depth of the game industry: Chinese games come from end-to-end games and become mobile games. We pay attention to the reverse" hand to end "trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant companies that can continuously output high-quality end-to-end games under the market environment of weak supply and strong demand of end-to-end games.
2. New contents and formats that have not been touched by the supervision, such as metauniverse. The expectation of the introduction of supporting policies of the meta universe is enhanced, and the pace of the implementation of new content and new business forms is strong. The pace of regulatory implementation is stabilizing and slowing down, focusing on the virtual exhibition field where the fundamentals are first implemented. According to pencil path, this week (the evening of March 31), affected by the epidemic, Shanghai people sought online entertainment opportunities at home, and millions of people poured into "cloud skipping" in the live broadcast room of "tudimusic". We believe that the demand for offline entertainment of the epidemic has increased (such as "cloud universe cloud skipping"), and the whole zhouwuyuan universe sector is optimistic, so we suggest paying attention to the thematic opportunities of the yuan universe sector.
Investment advice
(1) influenced by liquidity, China US game and strong regulatory expectations, Internet leaders continue to kill and have entered the oversold range. This week's policy positive is expected to boost market sentiment, and we continue to look forward to the new opportunities for the Internet 3 era. The core recommends the community's short video leader [Kwai -W], while paying attention to the oversold Internet leader, -W, beep, Tencent holdings, etc.
(2) immersing in the Internet is the future development trend. Metauniverse is in the initial stage of development. Compared with the implementation of C-end applications (requiring the popularization of access terminals), we believe that g-end / b-end projects are expected to be implemented first. At present, various countries and local governments have gradually introduced relevant policies of the meta universe. City pavilions, exhibition halls, theme pavilions, enterprise pavilions and cultural tourism performance activities are expected to become the first application scenarios for virtual cultural and creative projects. Core recommendations include [ Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) ], creative design leaders of cultural and tourism activities [ Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) ], [ Silkroad Visual Technology Co.Ltd(300556) ], etc.
(3) we are optimistic about the fundamentals of the game industry for a long time, and the short-term policy disturbance is expected to promote the development of the game industry. From the layout time point, focus on grasping before and after the release of the version number. At present, the share price of the game company has experienced a deep correction. There is a short-term game value before the release of the version number, and the certainty is established after the release of the version number, which has a long-term investment value. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ] with high-quality R & D ability and end-to-end tour of Zhuxian world; [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ] with strong operation ability, proven high-quality game R & D ability and sea distribution ability; Focusing on research and development, small and beautiful [ G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ]; [netease-s] with rich product matrix and strong risk resistance.
Risk tips
The development progress of yuanuniverse is less than expected, the improvement of overseas liquidity is less than expected, the policy supervision is stricter than expected, and the decline of game companies affected by the version number is more than expected.
