In 2022q1, the environment is changeable and the growth rate of fashion consumption fluctuates. 1) From January to February, the performance of the garment industry was stable / the growth rate of jewelry was bright. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to February, the social zero of clothing, home textile, gold, silver and jewelry increased by 4.8% / 19.5% respectively (the total social zero increased by 6.7% in the same period). 2) Since March, the epidemic has broken out in many places, and we judge that the performance of fashion consumption has decreased. Among them: ① the passenger flow restriction in high-speed cities is more obvious; ② Due to the damage of logistics, the e-commerce business is limited. 3) Q sub sector: the overall prosperity of sports shoes and clothing is high, the fluctuation of mass clothing is obvious, but the trend is similar, and the performance of individual stocks of medium and high-end brands is differentiated.
Sports shoes and clothing: Q1 grows rapidly, Q2 has a high base or fluctuates, and the medium and long-term prosperity is high. 1) Benefiting from the high growth of the track and the catalysis of the Winter Olympic Games, 2022q1 sports track still leads. We estimate that the water growth rate of Anta brand / FILA / Li Ning / Tebu Q1 is about 20% / single digit / 30% / 30% respectively. 2) At present, Q2 has arrived. Considering the high sales base (mostly reflected in 2021q2) and the uncertainty of the epidemic caused by the Xinjiang cotton incident last year, we judge that there will be some pressure on the water growth rate in 2022q2, but it has been considered in the annual profit forecast of each company, and the performance of high-quality companies will be better than that of the industry. 3) Medium and long term: the industry is in the growth driven by diversified demand. ① Women's and children's sports needs have increased. ② ice and snow, yoga, running and other subdivided sports have sprung up, which is expected to bring new growth space. ③ With the rise of national brands, local brands have the opportunity to improve their market share. We judge that the improvement of their core competitiveness comes from the advancement of product power.
Fashion clothing: competition intensifies, medium and high-end stocks are divided, and the public sector fluctuates greatly. The high-speed growth of fashion clothing sales at the beginning of the year and the subsequent weakening month by month are mainly due to the staggered peak consumption cycle of the Spring Festival and the impact of the fluctuation of the national epidemic since March. Among them: 1) the Volkswagen sector fluctuates greatly month by month, and the overall performance of 2022q1 is under pressure. We expect that the flow of Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) / Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) / Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) q1 will decline by about single digits. 2) The performance of medium and high-end brand stocks is differentiated. We expect Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) revenue to grow rapidly by 25% + / Dazzle Fashion Co.Ltd(603587) revenue may decline.
Garment manufacturing: steady capacity driven growth. We believe that the short-term global manufacturing supply chain is still recovering, and the order resources are still inclined to the leading manufacturers. According to our follow-up judgment: 1) the environmental pressure on Shenzhou International in the early stage is expected to improve month on month. We expect that the output level of 2022q1 is basically the same. 2) Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) production capacity is expected to continue to increase. We judge that the revenue in 2022q1 will increase by about 25%. 3) Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) seamless business improvement and steady growth of cotton socks. We expect its 2022q1 revenue to increase by about 30% / performance to grow rapidly.
Jewelry: gold jewelry sales are hot. The demand for Festival + investment and risk aversion has increased, the sales of gold jewelry such as gufajin are hot, and the leading channels continue to sink. We expect the revenue / performance of Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) in 2022q1 to grow steadily by about 10%, and the revenue side of Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) 2022q1 to grow by more than 100% / performance side to grow steadily by 10% ~ 15%. Home textile: stable performance and demand upgrading. The sales of 2022q1 home textile sector is stable. In the medium and long term, we benefit from the consumption upgrading + industry concentration trend. We judge that the leader represented by Luolai home textile is expected to grow steadily.
Investment advice. 1) We are optimistic about high growth sports tracks in the medium and long term, and recommend [Li Ning, Anta sports, special step international and Shenzhou International], corresponding to 30 / 24 / 23 / 28 times of PE in 22 years, paying attention to Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , corresponding to 25 times of PE in 22 years. 2) Recommend high-quality brands with good fundamental growth, recommend [ Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) ], corresponding to 18 times of PE in 22 years. 3) Gold jewelry sales are hot. It is recommended that [ Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) ], corresponding to 11 times of PE in 22 years.
Risk warning: the impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations; Low end consumption risk; The impact of exchange rate fluctuations; The store expansion of each company is less than expected, and the new business is not carried out smoothly.
