Market review this week:
CITIC coal index closed at 313411 points, up 3.8%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.37pct, ranking 8th in the list of gains and losses of CITIC primary sector.
Analysis of key areas:
Power coal: the off-season has come, and the coal price fluctuates widely. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of port q5500 was about 12501300 yuan / ton, down 200250 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of producing areas, the shortage of coal management tickets and the increase of maintenance coal mines at the end of the month reduced the output of coal mines in producing areas; Affected by the decline of outsourcing prices of ports and large groups, platforms and traders suspended procurement. The coal market is mainly dominated by rigid procurement such as chemical power plants, superimposed with the obstruction of automobile transportation, the inventory pressure of some coal mines increased, and the price of origin decreased continuously. In terms of ports, due to the reduction of coal mine production, the transfer in volume decreased slightly; However, due to the limited power demand, the downstream procurement slowed down, and the transfer out volume decreased year-on-year; When the transfer out is less than the transfer in, the inventory of Beigang continues to increase, which is still at a low level year-on-year. The function of the reservoir is poor, and the available resources are still tight. In the downstream, the temperature rose, the epidemic disturbance, the daily consumption continued to fall, and the inventory picked up. This week, the weather gradually warmed up. The epidemic affected the shutdown of some industries in the downstream, and the demand for electricity was relatively weak. With the power of new energy such as Nanfang hydropower, the weakening of market demand was further exacerbated. The terminal daily consumption in the eight coastal provinces fell to below 1.8 million tons, and the inventory of power plants continued to rise. In terms of imports, with certain progress made in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, global concerns about the interruption of Russian energy supply have eased; Superimposed on the cooling of sentiment in China’s coal market, the purchase demand has weakened, and the high price of international thermal coal has been reduced. On the whole, the profit expansion of the shipping port of origin is generally maintained at a high level. With the end of the heating season and the increase of policy regulation, the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality, the demand for terminal procurement slows down and the coal price operates weakly and stably. However, the epidemic affects the transportation efficiency. In addition, the spring maintenance of Daqin line will be started on April 18, and the import is still slightly upside down. It is expected that the short-term downward space is also limited. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the changes of China’s policies and demand side. The main contradiction of the power coal market is still in the coastal area, the storage of power coal in the port is at a low level in recent years, and the function of the reservoir is weakened; At the same time, the cost of imported coal is high, and China’s coal price is facing policy risks at any time, or lead to the reduction of import quantity, which will affect the supply of coastal power coal. If the problem of low inventory along the coast can not be solved, even in the off-season, the coal price will rise again after the periodic decline, maintaining the view that the coal price in the off-season will fluctuate in a wide range of 12001900 yuan / ton.
Coke: ease the epidemic and boost the market. With the release of epidemic control in some areas of Hebei, the operating rate of some downstream enterprises has increased, their enthusiasm for raw coal procurement has improved, the situation of online bidding has improved, and the coal mine quotation is mainly stable for the time being. As of Friday, the Shanxi main coke of Jingtang Port had closed at 3350 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. This week, most coal mines maintained normal operation, and the operation of some coal mines with low output in the early stage resumed, with supply increasing. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the epidemic situation has gradually eased, but the release of some Mongolian coal at Ganqi Maodu port has been delayed due to excessive fluorine content, and the overall customs clearance has decreased. According to sxcoal data, 194 vehicles were cleared every day for 4 days this week (3.28-3.31), a decrease of 17 vehicles per day compared with the same period last week. The overall market is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 raw coal is 23 Beijing Creative Distribution Automation Co.Ltd(002350) yuan / ton. On the demand side, the operating rates of coke steel companies in some regions are rising, and the raw coal storage of most coke steel companies is temporarily low. They have high enthusiasm for raw coal procurement, and the subsequent replenishment demand is strong. In the short term, there is still room for improvement in downstream demand. With the superposition of low inventory of coke steel enterprises and sufficient power for downstream active replenishment, the price of coking coal will rise strongly again.
Coke: the output of molten iron may hit the bottom and rise, and the coke price is expected to rise. From the second half of this week, with the gradual easing of the epidemic, the mood of the coke market improved and the overall price operated stably. On the supply side, coke oven start-up remained basically stable, and coke enterprises maintained high start-up driven by good profit space; The market transportation capacity has not been fully recovered, and the transportation is still limited. In addition, the railway wagon is tight, and it is difficult for some coke enterprises in the producing area to take the goods. The inventory in the factory continues to be at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate slightly. On the demand side, due to the impact of the epidemic in Tangshan, Hebei Province, the start-up of local steel mills has not been significantly improved. However, under the expectation of the improvement of the epidemic and the recovery of transport capacity, the steel mills in the region do not have plans for new maintenance or stewing furnaces. At the same time, a few blast furnaces begin to resume production gradually, and the hot metal output is expected to hit the bottom and rise; At the same time, in anticipation of the easing of the epidemic, steel mills have increased their procurement efforts, focusing on actively replenishing warehouses. On the whole, with the easing of the epidemic and the recovery of hot metal production, there is room for coke prices to rise.
Investment strategy. At present, the window period of annual report and first quarterly report has come. Under the high coal price, the performance of relevant companies has increased significantly. Under the background of declining capital expenditure in the industry year by year, the dividend proportion is expected to increase, and the sector is looking forward to double-click. China will still be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and traditional energy will not withdraw too soon. Under the background of limited room for tapping the potential of new production capacity and stock, the central rise of coal price will contribute to the stable release of performance and valuation repair of coal enterprises. In addition, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal, coking coal and coke prices are all global price depressions, and the upside down of prices will significantly affect China’s import volume. Even there is export arbitrage space for some varieties after processing finished products, which will form a strong support for China’s coal prices. Stick to the core assets and be optimistic about the valuation repair of high long-term association and high score red coal enterprises. Key recommendations: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . In addition, the transformation of traditional energy enterprises under the goal of “double carbon” is worth looking forward to. The key recommendations are power investment energy (green power), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) (new materials and green power), Yankuang energy (new materials and green power), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (hydrogen energy) and China Xuyang group (hydrogen energy). Actively layout the national reform in Shanxi, and focus on recommending Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , with expected asset injection.
Risk tip: China’s output release exceeded expectations, the downstream demand was less than expected, and the on grid electricity price was significantly reduced.
