Coking coal is expected to continue to improve, and the Q1 performance of coal enterprises is far higher than expected
The price of thermal coal weakened this week, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang fell to 1295 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the government actively promoted the signing of long-term association contracts, reduced the proportion of spot supply, coupled with the shortage of coal management tickets at the end of the month and the impact of maintenance, the operating rate of coal mines decreased slightly. In terms of demand, due to the warmer weather, the residential power consumption has turned into the off-season, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased, there are policy control expectations in the market, and the downstream power plants hold a wait-and-see attitude towards procurement. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the operating rate of power consumption enterprises decreased, and the growth of industrial power consumption was relatively slow. Overall, the previous tight supply situation has been alleviated, and the coal price has dropped significantly. Judging from the later stage, in terms of demand, the industrial power will gradually relay the civil power load. In the short term, considering the impact of the epidemic on the downstream operating rate, the daily consumption of the power plant may fall rapidly. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the recovery progress of the epidemic, and entering the maintenance season of the power plant may also bring some pressure on the demand; With the signing of contracts, the supply of coal in the medium and long term will be gradually reduced and the supply of coal in the spot market will be gradually tightened. The short-term tight supply situation has eased, and the coal price has fallen reasonably, but there is no strong downward pressure, and it is still expected to remain high in the long term. There may be no expectation of substantial easing in the fundamentals throughout the year. The steady growth policy drives the demand for infrastructure construction, and the vacancy of thermal power may be supplemented by industrial power enterprises; In terms of supply, on April 1, the central government held a national production safety teleconference to comprehensively deploy and strengthen production safety. It is expected that the security inspection will be strengthened throughout the year and the supply of production areas will be tight. However, due to the requirements of supply guarantee, the signing of the long-term Association will be gradually implemented, and the supply will be guaranteed by policies. There is no expectation of loose supply throughout the year, and the coal price may remain high. In terms of policy, it still pays more attention to the long-term association than the spot. Shanxi Province has issued a document to control the long-term association price. In the future, the spot coal source may be further scarce, and the spot price can still have greater flexibility. Coking coal prices are not affected by policies. Tight supply and “steady growth” stimulate demand, and the upward certainty of coking coal prices is high. This week, Yankuang energy released the performance forecast for the first quarter. The Q1 performance greatly exceeded expectations, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 193% year-on-year. We believe that the current coal sector still has high allocation value and is optimistic about the market of the sector. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the price of power coal fell sharply this week, and the tight supply situation was alleviated
This week (from March 28 to April 1, 2022), the price of thermal coal fell sharply, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang fell to 1295 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the government actively promoted the signing of long-term association contracts, reduced the proportion of spot supply, coupled with the shortage of coal management tickets at the end of the month and the impact of maintenance, the operating rate of coal mines decreased slightly. In terms of demand, due to the warmer weather, the residential power consumption has turned into the off-season, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased, there are policy control expectations in the market, and the downstream power plants hold a wait-and-see attitude towards procurement. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the operating rate of power consumption enterprises decreased, and the growth of industrial power consumption was relatively slow. Overall, the previous tight supply situation has been alleviated, and the coal price has dropped significantly. On April 1, the special verification of the signing of the long-term association was launched, and the coal price control policy of Shanxi Province was issued. The proportion of the long-term association will be significantly increased in April.
Coal coke steel industry chain: this week, coke coal is strong and coke is stable, and coke enterprises improve their willingness to purchase
Coke: coke price remained stable this week. The epidemic situation in the North was gradually unsealed, the demand for replenishment of raw materials of downstream steel enterprises was expected to increase, and the coke inventory of steel enterprises rose slightly. However, the cross regional mobilization of steel plant raw materials is still tense, and there are accumulated reserves in the upstream coke enterprises. Coking coal: with the improvement of coke expectations, coking coal prices strengthened this week. In terms of demand, the demand for replenishment of coke plants increased, but the epidemic affected the shipment, resulting in the accumulation of upstream coal mine inventory and the passive reduction of the demand of downstream coke steel enterprises. On the supply side, the output of coking coal enterprises was stable this week. Overall, we believe that the current fundamental preference of dual focus is that in the later stage, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the demand will be released again. At the same time, the infrastructure development force of steady growth policy will drive the demand of the whole year, and the price of dual focus is expected to continue to be strong.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
