Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on March 25, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 409.9 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 3.4 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 238.8 million barrels, an increase of 800000 barrels per week; Distillate oil inventory was 113.5 million barrels, an increase of 1.4 million barrels per week; Propane inventory was 3370.9 million barrels, an increase of 145000 barrels per week. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on March 25, 2022, U.S. crude oil production was 11.7 million barrels per day, an increase of 100000 barrels per day per week and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) barrels per day over a year ago. On April 1, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 673, with an increase of 3 in the week and 243 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 124, with a weekly decrease of 16 and an annual increase of 55. Among them, there are 533 oil production rigs in the United States, with an increase of 2 in the week and 196 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were power coal (Zaozhuang) (up 14.3%), calcium hydrogen phosphate (up 9.6%) and maleic anhydride (up 7.6%); The top three declines were liquid chlorine (down 23.1%), thermal coal (Qinhuangdao) (down 18.6%) and DMC (down 16.7%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were urea International (up 65.8%), sulfuric acid (up 60.5%) and acetic acid (up 41.6%); The top three declines were glyphosate (down 30.0%), DMC (down 26.7%) and 107 gum (down 25.0%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are butyl acrylate price difference (up 86.8%), maleic anhydride (benzene method) price difference (up 83.5%) and polypropylene price difference (up 74.2%); The top three declines were polyvinyl alcohol price difference (down 109.0%), oil head propylene price difference (down 107.8%) and PTA (down 100.1%).
In terms of monthly price difference, the top three products with price difference increase were styrene total price difference (up 6329.2%), R410A price difference (up 500.0%) and polypropylene price difference (up 413.8%); The top three declines were: oil head ethylene glycol price difference (down 1855.4%), PX (down 1004.2%) and polyethylene price difference (down 677.8%).
Investment proposal and investment object
Recently, the investment logic of biodiesel industry has been recognized by the market. We believe that Europe’s biodiesel policy has been ahead of the recycled plastics policy for five years. Chinese firewood enterprises have enjoyed dividends for some time, and the recycled plastics industry is expected to enjoy a policy dividend period in the future. In terms of recycling system and future industry pattern, recycled PET is better than biodiesel. Therefore, now is a good opportunity to lay out the recycled plastic track. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of EPC service provider Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) ( Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) , buy), which master the core technology of recycled PET, and Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) ( Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) , Unrated), China Resources Chemical Innovative Materials Co.Ltd(301090) ( China Resources Chemical Innovative Materials Co.Ltd(301090) , Unrated) and C wankai (301216, Unrated) who lay out the production of recycled PET.
It is suggested to pay attention to the continuous upward opportunity of the phosphate fertilizer sector due to the rise of phosphate ore and the improvement of export. Recently, the price of phosphate rock has increased. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore truck / ship board in Guizhou, Sichuan and lake areas is 650700 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials supports the prosperity of phosphate fertilizer. On the other hand, due to the significant increase in export difficulty after the reform of chemical fertilizer commodity inspection to legal inspection in October last year, the high price of ammonium phosphate export market has not been fully reflected due to a large number of pre orders remaining from January to February. There is room for month on month improvement in the price of new orders signed by enterprises with export capacity, contributing to the elasticity of further month on month improvement of profits. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) ( Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , overweight) and other phosphate fertilizer enterprises with supporting capacity of core materials.
Risk tips
The prices of crude oil and raw materials have fallen sharply, the implementation of relevant policies is less than expected, the emergence of new technologies to replace existing renewable technologies, the export of chemical fertilizer is less than expected, geopolitics, repeated epidemics, etc.
