Banking stocks: the industry index rebounded
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by 5.18%, 1.77% and 3.46% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking third, eighth and fourth among the 31 Shenwan industries.
On a weekly basis, the stock prices of Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002807) , China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) and Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) rose by 20.47%, 14.91% and 12.33% respectively. . Since the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year since the beginning of the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year to the beginning of the beginning of the year to the beginning of the year to date, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) achieved an increase of more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: net money supply, and inter-bank market interest rate decreased
The total amount of money put in this week was 615 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 1950 billion yuan, and the net money put in was 420 billion yuan, an increase of 370 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the net monetary investment has reached 420 billion yuan.
On April 1, dr001 was 1.63%, down 41bps compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 2.16%, down 72bps from last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 1.65%, down 41bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.21%, down 7bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate: the interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate has decreased
This week, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased. On April 1, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.28%, 2.45% and 2.59% respectively, with changes of – 20bps, – 6bps and – 2bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China’s bonds widened and the term interest spread of US bonds narrowed
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds decreased, and the term interest spread expanded. On April 1, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.11% and 2.77% respectively, with changes of – 6bps and – 2bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.67%, up 4bps from last Friday.
This week, the yield of 1y US bonds increased, the yield of 10Y US bonds decreased, and the term spread narrowed. On April 1, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.72% and 2.38% respectively, with changes of + 5bps and – 10bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.66%, down 15bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity index: start of interest rate hike cycle
(1) on March 31, the US secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.29%, up 1bp from last Friday. (2) On March 30, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.33%, down 18 BPS compared with last Friday. (3) On April 1, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.41%, up 6bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
In the last week of March, bank stocks rebounded sharply, and the valuation of industry leaders is still low. Our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommendation order unchanged, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
