[Key words this week]: BYD plans to stop the production of fuel vehicles; The sales volume of new energy vehicles of some Chinese auto enterprises increased year-on-year in March; The long-term association price guideline of Q2 spodumene in cattlin mine reaches 5000 US dollars / ton; The United States may support the development of local lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and other mineral resources
Market review: the game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has intensified significantly, and the increase of commodities has slowed down: 1) the procurement of lithium and downstream material plants has slowed down, the output at the supply end has gradually increased, and the increase of lithium price has slowed down. This week, China’s spot price of lithium carbonate and the price of lithium concentrate have remained stable; 2) Rare earth: downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, and the purchase demand weakened. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell by 7% to 925000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 7.4%, and the quotation of terbium oxide decreased by 5.1%; 3) The quotations of cobalt, MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.9% and 0.8% month on month respectively; 4) Nickel: under the short-term capital game, nickel price fluctuation increased, and LME nickel fell 9.04% month on month. 5) Stock market: the overall performance of the nonferrous index this week was relatively weak. The Shenwan nonferrous index fell 1.97%, 4.40 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, of which the lithium sector fell 4.63% and the rare earth permanent magnet sector fell 2.88% compared with last week.
New energy vehicle industry chain: the sales volume of new energy vehicles of some Chinese auto enterprises increased year-on-year in March Byd Company Limited(002594) 3 month, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 104900, with a year-on-year increase of 333% and a month on month increase of 19%. In addition, Byd Company Limited(002594) said that since March 2022, the company has stopped the production of fuel vehicles and focused on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Tesla delivered more than 35478 vehicles in the Chinese market in March, including 25327 model 3 vehicles, an increase of 85% month on month and 119.4% year-on-year. Xiaopeng delivered 15414 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of 202% and a month on month increase of 147.6%; Nezha delivered 12026 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of 270% and a month on month increase of 69%; 11034 vehicles are expected to be delivered in March, with a year-on-year increase of 152.1% and a month on month increase of 31%.
Lithium: the price of lithium carbonate is stable. 1) On the price side, the game between upstream and downstream enterprises intensified under the background of the state’s advocacy of maintaining the price and stable supply of lithium resources. This week, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was held to 518000 yuan / ton, the price of battery grade lithium hydroxide was stable to 494000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium carbonate futures in Wuxi electronic disk decreased by 2.1%. 2) On the inventory side, the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.47% month on month from 4885 to 4908 tons; Lithium hydroxide inventory increased by 9.34% month on month from 824 to 901 tons. 3) Overseas lithium concentrate accelerated upward: allkem raised the long-term association price of spodumene in 2022q2 to US $5000 / ton, which is basically doubled compared with Q1, corresponding to the production cost of lithium carbonate in China of about 280000 yuan / ton (excluding tax). 4) On the policy side, the US government may introduce legislation to encourage the us to produce materials for electric vehicles and other types of batteries, including lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt and manganese, which will enable mining companies to obtain US $750 million under the framework of the national defense production law, without affecting the short-term supply and demand pattern.
Rare earth permanent magnet: reshaping the industry pattern. 1) On the spot side, affected by the epidemic, the terminal orders were insufficient and the market price was unstable, resulting in strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. The purchase of orders was postponed, and the magnetic material enterprises further reduced the inventory. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell by 7% to 925000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 7.4%, and the quotation of terbium oxide decreased by 5.1%. 2) On the supply side, Myanmar is still closed, and the consumption inventory of medium and heavy rare earths is dominated. The operating rate of praseodymium and neodymium oxide enterprises has not changed significantly, and the weekly output is basically the same. 3) On the inventory side, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased from 3633 to 3700 tons, up 1.84% month on month.
Cobalt: with the tightening of raw materials, the price of cobalt may rise further. This week, the quotation of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.9% and 0.8% month on month respectively. Affected by the high price, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream market of electrolytic cobalt. The high fluctuation of nickel price also has an impact on the demand for ternary materials, and the downstream is dominated by rigid demand procurement; The problem of supply side logistics and transportation has not been alleviated. The epidemic in Shanghai has further exacerbated the shortage of intermediate goods supply, and the cobalt inventory has remained at a very low level, showing a weak situation of both supply and demand.
Nickel: in the short term, under the capital game, the fluctuation of nickel price increases; In the long run, nickel prices return to fundamentals. After Lun Ni experienced significant fluctuations, there was little liquidity in the market, and the price of Lun Ni fluctuated from US $31700 to US $33600 / ton. LME nickel closed at US $33000 / ton this week, down 9.04% month on month.
Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry. For the upstream raw materials of new energy, such as rare earth magnetic materials, lithium cobalt copper foil, aluminum foil, etc., the short-term boom is still strong, the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle will not change, and the industrial boom is the most clear. The core standard of the core standard is the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: 002 ” ;, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , etc.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial policy change risk, epidemic aggravation risk, new energy vehicle sales less than expected risk, premise assumption of supply and demand calculation less than expected risk, etc.
