Talk every Monday:
Last week, CITIC basic chemical sector rose 0.66%, of which the carbon fiber sub sector rose 4.6%, ranking first in the chemical sub sector. In the field of carbon fiber, we are optimistic about two types of enterprises for a long time. One is enterprises based on upstream precursor supply. These enterprises have cost advantages and are expected to continue to benefit from the outbreak of large tow demand, represented by Jilin Carbon valley; The other is a comprehensive carbon fiber enterprise based on military customers and actively expanding the civil field. This kind of enterprise has customer barriers and diversified layout advantages, represented by Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) .
Demand and cost determine the development path of carbon fiber enterprises. According to the number of fibers, carbon fibers can be divided into small tow and large tow. Among them, small tow carbon fiber is mainly used in military industry, aerospace and aviation. It has high price, low demand and low output, so it is difficult to be used on a large scale in industrial and civil fields; Large tow carbon fiber has the advantages of low production cost, high cost performance and can meet the needs of industry and civil use. For example, the high cost performance of large tow carbon fiber (≥ 24K) makes it have a broad application prospect in the field of wind power blades. In recent years, the carbon fiber industry has adopted the large tow carbon fiber pultrusion beam process to reduce the cost. Therefore, the stable and large-scale production of large tow carbon fiber is the symbol of the commercialization of carbon fiber technology, and the market space is huge
Analysis of representative enterprises with different development paths. One is based on the upstream raw silk supply enterprises, which have cost advantages. Among them, Jilin Carbon Valley is the largest large-scale and stable raw silk supply enterprise in China. Its technology combines the advantages of two-step process and wet process, which is especially suitable for the production of large tow raw silk. At the same time, Jilin Carbon Valley is backed by Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) group, which has obvious cost advantages. The cost per ton of the company is about 10000 yuan lower than that of other precursor manufacturers; The other is a comprehensive carbon fiber enterprise based on military customers and actively expanding the civil field. Military carbon fiber customers have high barriers. Relying on the high profits and technology accumulation provided by military products business, the company has also successfully completed diversified layout. After 2017, the proportion of civilian products has gradually increased, the company’s business has become diversified and its competitiveness has been continuously improved.
Investment strategy: considering that the rise of emerging fields such as wind power blades and hydrogen storage bottles provides huge growth space for carbon fiber, the high boom of carbon fiber is expected to continue. In the field of carbon fiber, we are optimistic about two types of enterprises for a long time. One is enterprises based on upstream precursor supply. These enterprises have cost advantages and are expected to continue to benefit from the outbreak of large tow demand, represented by Jilin Carbon valley; The other is a comprehensive carbon fiber enterprise based on military customers and actively expanding the civil field. This kind of enterprise has customer barriers and diversified layout advantages, represented by Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) .
Market review:
Sector performance: this week, CITIC’s basic chemical sector rose 0.66%, and the composition of the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%. Compared with the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, the basic chemical sector fell 0.17 percentage points behind. In terms of sub sectors, the basic chemical sub sector was dominated by growth this week, with soda ash, titanium dioxide, polyurethane, carbon fiber, phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical sub sectors leading the rise; Potassium fertilizer, fluorine chemical industry, membrane materials, synthetic resin, other chemical raw materials and other sub sectors led the decline.
Rise and fall of individual stocks: the basic chemical sector led the rise this week, including Lushan new material, Gpro Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(000545) , Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575) , Shuanghuan technology, Jiangsu Boiln Plastics Co.Ltd(301003) , etc; Stocks leading the decline include Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) , Zhejiang Zhongxin Fluoride Materials Co.Ltd(002915) , Sichuan Jinlu Group Co.Ltd(000510) , Huarong chemical, Zhejiang Benli Technology Co.Ltd(301065) , etc.
Risk tips: the risk of fluctuations in international oil prices, the risk of repeated global epidemics, etc.
