The epidemic is expected to usher in an inflection point and actively layout the second quarterly report. In the past month, the epidemic situation in Jilin and Shanghai has had an impact on the northeast and East China. At present, the epidemic situation in Changchun, Jilin is gradually slowing down. From the peak of nearly 2000 new cases per day, it has dropped to 604 new cases on April 4, and the asymptomatic cases have dropped from 3100 cases at the peak to more than 1300 cases on April 4; At present, the epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai has also ushered in the most critical week. With the strong support of medical personnel and materials across the country, the prevention and control is more orderly and is expected to usher in an inflection point. This week is also the first week of the second quarter. Considering the low performance base of some food enterprises in the second quarter of last year, the second quarter report of this year is expected to achieve rapid growth. In terms of valuation, affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic, the Shenwan food and beverage index has been reduced by 18.39% since the beginning of the year, and the valuation of many core targets has been adjusted to a relatively cheap position. If the epidemic situation improves month on month, combined with the acceleration of performance in the second quarter, it may bring good opportunities for layout.
Baijiu week tracking: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 1) the business platform is hot, and the trial run period is 50 days. According to the headlines of Yunjiu and the Southern Metropolis Daily, the “I Maotai” e-commerce app topped the free list of Apple stores on the first day of its launch this week, and only 25.22 million people participated in wine purchase appointments in the following four days. The period from 3.31 to 5.19 will be trial operation, and the test will be conducted with the positioning of “new products, new channels and new platforms”. We think the one and only high influence of Moutai’s electronic business platform proves Moutai’s unique influence in Baijiu, but we should also treat it rationally. Because the continuous high booking times do not represent the real demand, but the investment demand addition caused by the huge spread between the guidance price and the actual transaction price. According to today’s wine price data, among the four products launched this time, the current rated price of treasures is 4850 yuan and the guide price is 4599 yuan; Maotai 1935 is currently priced at 1420 yuan and the guidance price is 1188 yuan; The current rating of the year of the Tiger Chinese Zodiac wine is 3880 yuan and the guide price is 2499 yuan. Therefore, if obtaining the qualification of buying wine is equivalent to directly getting a red envelope of 100 yuan to thousands of yuan, the time cost is not high. 2) The price system was not significantly impacted, and the confidence of dealers was boosted: previously, the capital market and wine merchants expected that the launch of e-commerce platform would crack down on the existing market price system and pull the wholesale price to the guidance price. Although the current launch volume is not large, it can also be observed that the wholesale prices of some products online in e-commerce are still stable: Maotai 1935 has increased slightly by 40 yuan from 1380 yuan before online, and the year of the tiger Zodiac remains at about 3880 yuan. The price of rare Maotai fell slightly from 5000 yuan to 4850 yuan. Dealer confidence was also significantly boosted. Feitian’s approval price stopped falling this week, and the original box / bulk bottle Maotai approval price increased by 150 / 160 yuan to 2850 / 2660 yuan respectively. We believe that the emotional impact of flying price fixing on the market has come to an end. Moutai’s strong fundamentals will be the key to the Baijiu sector, with the demand scenario resuming.
Baijiu week tracking: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : channel research feedback, April goods are still not yet received, and expect to continue to stop cargo. The price of Pu five is still around 965970 yuan. Previously, the price support of puwu was suppressed by the decline of Feitian’s approval price and the epidemic situation. At present, the price factor of competitive products has been preliminarily removed. We believe that the key to the price support lies in the epidemic situation and channel implementation. We look forward to the recovery of demand brought by the mitigation of the epidemic in the future, and we are optimistic about the strengthening of the five-year wholesale price in the year Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the price of 1573 high-grade national cellar is maintained at 920 yuan around the week, and the price of low-grade national cellar is also stable at 640 yuan. It is expected that the payment will be made at the new cost in April, driving the increase of ton price. At present, the rebate policy is not clear.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the growth is accelerated and the reform is moving forward. This week, Maotai announced the annual report of 2021 and the main business conditions in the first quarter of 2022. The revenue reached 109.4 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 109.1%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. It is estimated that the total operating revenue in 2022q1 will be about 33.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%. 1) The first quarter was in line with expectations and continued to accelerate growth. According to the company’s annual performance accounting guidelines, we calculate that the total operating revenue of 21q4 is about 32.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 14.0%, and the net profit is about 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 18.1%, which is significantly accelerated compared with the first three quarters. In this announcement, the company expects the revenue and profit of 22q1 to increase by about 18% / 19% respectively, continuing the good momentum of 21q4. We believe that Q1 growth is mainly due to Feitian’s large volume, the contribution of Maotai 1935 and treasures to new products, the inclination of non-standard Maotai to proprietary channels, and the incremental contribution of Maotai flavor series. 2) There was little pressure to establish structural optimization and accelerate growth throughout the year. In recent three years, the proportion of Maotai Q1 revenue in the whole year is between 25-26%. At the same time, considering that the contribution factors of Q1 growth are expected to continue to play a role, we expect to achieve a performance growth rate similar to Q1 in the whole year. First, new quota investment direct channels. According to the feedback of channel research, we expect that this year’s volume increase will be mainly through direct channels, contributing to the increase of revenue and driving the increase of ton price at the same time. Second, according to the feedback of channel research, this year’s non-standard quotas such as dealers’ high-quality products and zodiac are mainly obtained through self operated stores, driving the dealers to increase the cost of taking goods. Third, the contribution of new products is significant: in terms of treasures: each dealer of treasures added a quota of 40 boxes this month. Since there was basically no inventory of treasures before, it is expected to continue to maintain the delivery rhythm of existing treasures in the future; Maotai 1935: at present, it is mainly sold through series liquor dealers, and a certain quota is allocated to Maotai specialty stores through e-commerce platform, and the delivery rhythm also shows an accelerating trend.
Prospects for 2022q1 performance of mass products industry: the demand for dairy mustard and other vegetables is rigid, waiting for the haze of the epidemic to dissipate. 2022q1 popular products listed companies are still under pressure. On the one hand, although the demand side performed well from January to February, the epidemic since March has repeatedly led to the contraction of terminal demand; On the other hand, the prices of packaging materials and raw materials are still rising, and the external uncertain environment will continue to affect the subsequent costs. In this context, we suggest paying attention to the target that the demand is less affected by the epidemic and even benefits to a certain extent, and the cost side increases less or even falls back. We suggest actively paying attention to Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) . At present, the market is waiting for the haze to dissipate. We believe that after the follow-up epidemic repair, the industry concentration will be accelerated. We pay attention to the leaders with core competitiveness. We suggest to choose the opportunity to lay out Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , etc. (1) Beer: the short-term sales volume is repeatedly affected by the epidemic, and the price increase is implemented to cushion the cost pressure. From January to February 2022, the output of beer industry was 5.309 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, which has returned to the pre epidemic level in 2019. Since March, due to the strong and repeated epidemic in the country, the drinking scene has been greatly impacted, and the total amount of beer is expected to be under pressure. By the end of 2021, beer leaders have started to raise prices to cope with the pressure of rising costs. The transmission is good. The dividend of 2022q1 price increase is expected to be fully reflected on the statement side to alleviate the pressure of costs. (2) Condiments: expect the demand to improve and the price increase will be gradually transmitted.
From January to February 2022, the revenue of the catering industry was 771.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, an increase of 4.7% compared with the same period in 2019, but it has not yet recovered to the industry growth rate of nearly 10% before the epidemic. The epidemic situation was repeated in March, and the catering industry is expected to suffer obvious damage. During the Spring Festival season of condiments from January to February, in order to grab the market and achieve a good start, the price increase of the industry has not been fully reflected, while the cost side continues to rise. It is expected that the profitability of 2022q1 condiment company is still under pressure. (3) Dairy products: the demand is stable, the cost pressure is relieved, and the cost input is rational. The rigid demand for dairy products is mainly due to the healthy consumption trend under the background of the epidemic, which promotes the demand for white milk. This year, the atmosphere of returning home for the Chinese New Year is stronger, the gift giving effect is more obvious, and the liquid milk with low base may have a relatively bright performance. The pressure on the cost of raw milk has eased, and the cost investment in the industry remains relatively rational. It is expected that the income performance of dairy enterprises will have a relatively bright performance in Q1. (4) Quick frozen food: the marginal demand has improved, and the cost pressure has not been relieved. After the 22q1 Spring Festival, under the influence of multiple factors, the performance exceeded expectations, and the overall demand showed a marginal improvement trend. At the same time, the repeated serious epidemic in East China and other regions since March led to the rapid growth of the demand for C-end rice flour products. Oil, soybean protein and other raw materials are still rising this year, with significant cost pressure, but the price increase may cover part of the cost impact to a certain extent. It is expected that the Q1 performance of quick-frozen food enterprises is still under obvious pressure. (5) Snack food: the dislocation of the Spring Festival affects the income growth, and the cost pressure is still on. During the Spring Festival in January, the mobile sales of terminals were in good condition, and the sales of offline supermarkets of nuts fried goods doubled. Considering that February is the off-season after the traditional festival, combined with the impact of last year’s high base, mobile sales are expected to decline in February this year. In March, the epidemic spread in China and some areas were blocked. On the one hand, it can stimulate home consumption and accelerate the destocking of terminals and channels. On the other hand, it is expected to have a certain impact on the delivery rhythm. Some leisure snack manufacturers transferred out factory prices in the fourth quarter of last year, and the transmission of price increase was relatively smooth. Since this year, palm oil, soybean oil and other raw materials have remained at a high level. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation rate has further increased, and there is expected to be some pressure on the cost side.
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) : the high-end industry is advancing steadily, and the short-term fluctuations are viewed rationally. The company achieved a revenue of 30.167 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 8.67%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.34%; Reducing the impact of land expropriation compensation + fixed asset impairment caused by plant closure + equity incentive fees, the core net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 3.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 2.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.54%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 3.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -455 million yuan, the compensation for land acquisition was -891 million yuan, and the same period in 2020 was -777 million yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was -1.009 billion yuan, which was -862 million yuan in the same period in 2020. (1) The product structure continues to improve, and Q4 sales are under pressure in the short term. In 2021, the company achieved 7.93 million kiloliters of beer sales, a year-on-year increase of 1.38%; Beer revenue reached 29.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.54%; The revenue per ton of wine increased by 7.06% year-on-year to 3743 yuan / kiloliter. The company’s revenue per ton of wine maintained a benign growth, mainly benefiting from the continuous improvement of product structure. In 2021, the sales volume of the company’s main brands reached 4.33 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 11.62%, including 520000 kiloliters of high-end products, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; The sales volume of other brands was 3.6 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.68%, but the average price of other brands increased by 7.2% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the price increase of Laoshan and the rapid upgrading of low-end regional brands to Laoshan. 2021q4 achieved 846000 kiloliters of beer sales, a year-on-year decrease of 3.65%, mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic on the existing drinking channels, of which the sales volume of main brands was 545000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, and the structure continued to improve, driving the revenue per ton of wine to increase by 5.59% year-on-year. (2) The cost rose significantly and the expense rate was well controlled as a whole. In 2021, the company’s cost per ton of wine increased by 4.94% year-on-year to 2368 yuan / kiloliter, mainly due to the rise in the prices of packaging materials, especially cans and cartons. Overall, in 2021, the gross profit margin of beer business increased by 1.28 PCT year-on-year to 36.73%. In 2021, the company’s sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates were + 0.71, – 0.43, + 0.02 and + 0.89 PCT respectively to 13.58%, 5.61%, 0.10% and – 0.81% year-on-year, and the overall control was good. Among them, the gross sales difference in 2021q4 decreased by 9.49 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the continued sharp rise in Q4 costs and the confirmation of advertising investment for the Winter Olympic Games. In 2021q4, the company’s management, R & D and financial expense rates were – 7.10, + 0.21 and + 1.78 PCT respectively to 16.50%, 0.51% and – 1.45% year-on-year. In 2021, the company continued to optimize the supply chain, closed two small factories in Zaozhuang and merged into one large factory to improve efficiency. (3) With the acceleration of the company’s high-end process and the superposition of cost driven price increases, ASP will maintain rapid growth in 2022. In 2022, the cost side is still facing upward pressure, and the company is expected to digest it through the increase of average price and positive cost reduction and efficiency increase. Although the short-term epidemic has repeatedly affected beer sales, the logic of profit release driven by the increase of average price remains unchanged, and the company continues to be optimistic about the high-end of the company.
Sales volume: significantly improved in the short term. Under the standard of preparation for examination, the company realized an income of 13.119 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 19.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.14%. In 2021q4, the revenue was 1.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, up from – 07 million yuan in the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 117 million yuan, up from – 19 million yuan in the same period last year. (1) The epidemic repeatedly affected Q4 sales, and the high-end promoted the average price. In 2021q4, the company achieved beer revenue of 1.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.24%; Beer sales reached 372600 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of – 2.08%, which was significantly slower than the growth rate of 18.29% in the first three quarters, mainly affected by the repeated Q4 epidemic; In the fourth quarter, the revenue per ton of wine increased by 4.41% year-on-year to 4997 yuan / kiloliter, which continued to benefit from high-end, and the company started price raising measures in the second half of last year to alleviate the rising pressure of raw materials. In terms of grades, the high-end, mainstream and economic revenue of 2021q4 company reached 717 million yuan, 1010 million yuan and 134 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.39%, – 0.27% and 11.17% respectively; Compared with the same period last year, the company’s revenue in the northwest and the South regions increased by -12.7 billion and -12.4 billion respectively, and that in the middle and South regions increased by -4.24 billion and -1.24 billion respectively. (2) The increase of gross profit margin + the decrease of sales expense ratio promoted the release of Q4 profit elasticity. The cost per ton of wine (comparable caliber) of 2021q4 company decreased by 17.82% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the savings brought by the company’s continuous promotion of organizational structure optimization projects and operation cost management projects, the increase of superposition average price, and the gross profit margin of comparable caliber increased by 10.31 PCT to 59.73% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. 2021q4 company’s sales (comparable caliber), management, R & D and financial expense rates were -4.47, -6.50, + 1.76 and + 0 PCT to 28.15%, 5.49%, 2.81% and – 0.24% respectively year-on-year. The decrease in the sales expense rate is mainly due to the strong and repeated epidemic in the fourth quarter and the pressure on the overall sales of the industry. The company appropriately reduces the investment of expenses. The decrease in management expense rate is mainly due to the provision of more asset restructuring expenses in 2020q4. In 2021q4, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits increased by 7.04 PCT year-on-year. (3) The impact of the epidemic on the company’s sales volume is short-term. Benefiting from the continuous big city strategy, the company’s sales volume is expected to maintain a growth trend in the medium term, and the overall production and sales volume in the industry is flat
