Calculation of income growth rate. 1. The calculation shows that the revenue in the first quarter increased by 4.7% year-on-year, and the net interest income and net non interest income increased by 4.9% and 4.2% year-on-year respectively. Rural commercial banks urban commercial banks large banks joint-stock banks, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, 7.3%, 6.9% and 2.9% respectively. Both big banks and rural commercial banks are supported by net interest income; Stock banks and urban commercial banks are dragged down by the high interest margin base. 2. Income is expected to increase stocks. It is estimated that the Bank of communications in the big bank will increase by 10% year-on-year; CMB, Societe Generale and Zheshang in joint-stock banks increased by 8% year-on-year; Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu, Zhengzhou and Bank Of Changsha Co.Ltd(601577) among the urban commercial banks increased by 10% year-on-year; Among ABC, Jiangyin, Changshu and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Corporation(002958) have a year-on-year increase of 15% + (there is a certain error in the calculation).
Net interest margin: the net interest margin in the first quarter is expected to decline by 1.84bp month on month, which is dragged down by the negative asset side: the asset side to interest margin drags 0.5bp, and the liability side to interest margin drags 1.34bp. Among them, the asset side is mainly the repricing drag caused by the interest rate cut at the end of last year and the beginning of this year; The liability side is the upward cost caused by the continuation of the trend of deposit periodization. 1. The asset side pricing dimension drags the net interest margin, and the structural dimension contributes positively. The total impact of the two on the net interest margin is -0.5bp. Among them, the decline of newly issued loan interest rate dragged down 0.27bp and loan repricing dragged down 0.96bp; The proportion of loans increased, with a positive contribution of 0.73bp. In terms of the sector, the decline in interest margin was stock banks urban commercial banks rural commercial banks big banks, with a month on month decrease of 0.91, 0.7, 0.56 and 0.31bp respectively. The largest banks had the smallest decline, mainly due to the contribution of the increase in the proportion of credit in the first quarter. Due to the drag of real estate, the joint-stock banks are expected to have some pressure on the growth of new loans in the first quarter. 2. On the liability side, considering the upward pricing of new deposits, the downward repricing of existing deposits, the regularization of deposits, the decline of the cost of active liabilities and the increase of the proportion of deposits in the liability structure, the total drag on the net interest margin on the liability side was 1.34bp, mainly due to the increase of the degree of deposit regularization. Among them, the upward drag on the pricing of new deposits was 0.33bp, and the repricing of deposits increased by 0.74bp; The fixed deposit dragged down 2.89bp; The contribution of active debt cost reduction is 0.72bp; The proportion of deposits increased, with a positive contribution of 0.43bp. In terms of sectors, the drag degree of interest margin was agricultural commercial banks urban commercial banks large banks joint-stock banks, with a month on month decrease of 1.74, 1.43, 0.94 and 0.76bp respectively. The main reason for the slow-release is that the debt of the bank is reduced by a large margin, while the decrease of shares is the smallest.
The robustness of bank asset quality will exceed market expectations. There are fluctuations in the non-performing of the subdivided industries, but the asset quality ballast of the industry remains stable for public infrastructure loans, retail mortgages are still relatively stable, the historical burden of the stock of the physical manufacturing industry is unloaded and in the upward period of prosperity, so the non-performing rate of the industry as a whole is still declining month on month.
Investment suggestion: Recently, real estate is the core logic of bank stock investment, and the rise of real estate will promote the rise of the banking sector. Optimistic about the banking sector; Choose high growth and determine strong targets. Steady growth is expected to continue to push the banking sector upward. As the internal differentiation of the sector increases, banks with solid fundamentals and good industrial and regional layout should be selected.
Risk warning event: the macro economy is facing downward pressure, and the impact of the epidemic on the industry is higher than expected.
