Basic conclusions and investment suggestions
Hotel: Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) the whole year is expected to benefit from overseas repair. The internal reform is active. It is expected that the impact of the Shanghai epidemic will be relatively small in the short term. It is recommended to focus on it. Looking back on the past 21 years, the RevPAR of the top three domestic companies has recovered to 83.0% on average in 19 years, with Jinjiang and Huazhu leading the first brigade by 10 + PCT; On the income side, asset light store expansion was the main driving force for growth, and Huazhu took the lead in the year with an increase of 30.3%; In terms of rent and labor management, DH has a large profit margin, which is dragged down by Jinhua and Sanjiang; In terms of cash flow, Jinjiang's interest coverage ratio returned to 1.4 times, which was relatively ahead. Looking forward to 22 years, the epidemic situation in first tier cities repeatedly dragged down the recovery progress in March, the leading income in Q1 is expected to increase in low single digits, and the pressure may continue under the high base of Q2; The Q1 epidemic situation in Europe has been controlled and the travel intensity has recovered well. Jinjiang and Huazhu can turn losses overseas in the whole year, and the annual income guidance center is 22.5% and 18.5%. Overseas people expect high double-digit growth. In terms of the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, the number of hotels in Jinjiang Shanghai is the lowest among the top three, and the proportion of Shanghai direct stores in the total direct stores is low, which is expected to be relatively affected.
Catering: throughout the year, we focused on jiumaojiu and Hailun, which are efficient in single store model and rapidly promoted in nationwide store expansion, and also focused on the opportunity of hot pot brand dilemma reversal. Looking back on the past 21 years, the overall income of catering enterprises has recovered to the level of 19 years, and the revenue of hailun company + 124.4% is the most brilliant; Under the repeated epidemic, the pace of expanding stores has slowed down as a whole. Hailun / taierjing has opened 431 / 117 stores, leading the expansion speed. Hailun's user stickiness has gradually developed, and the growth of old stores is stable; The overall turnover efficiency has not recovered to the level of 19 years; On the profit side, the overall personnel, rent and amortization expenses are still under pressure, but the operation standardization of hailun company and jiumaojiu company is high, and through the optimization of their own products and brand structure to reduce costs and increase efficiency, there is still room to repair their profitability in the future. Looking forward to 22 years, the 1q22 high-speed line city epidemic has repeatedly gone offline, and the consumption scene is under pressure. All catering enterprises have made positive adjustments in terms of store layout, brand sorting, organization optimization and supply chain improvement. The growth of Helens, Taier and caoku brands is relatively prominent, and pay attention to the opportunities for the reversal of the plight of catering enterprises.
Qingming social service data tracking: the passenger flow intensity of 1q22 scenic spots across the country recovers slowly, which is speculated to be related to the recurrence of the epidemic and the diversion of tourists around the suburbs; The catering intensity of Qingming in the first tier cities continued the downward trend in March, and the takeout was recovering smoothly; During the Qingming holiday, the tourism in the West recovered 20% ahead of that in the East, and the travel willingness of users in some unsealed areas rebounded significantly. However, due to the form of short-distance travel, travel consumption also showed compensation psychology and consumption power increased; Theme hotels, small and beautiful hotels and boutique B & B have become popular types of hotels in Qingming Festival.
Data and announcement tracking
Market review: last week (2022 / 3 / 28 ~ 2022 / 4 / 1), CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index rose 2.4%, 3.0% and social services (Shenwan) rose 3.0% respectively. In terms of breakdown, catering A shares and Hong Kong stock indexes rose 7.5% and 7.2% respectively, hotel A shares and Hong Kong stock indexes rose 6.1% and 4.1% respectively.
Industry news: 1) many governments and relevant leading enterprises have launched new rescue policies to fully support the recovery and development of the hotel and catering industry. 2) Domino China plans to go public in Hong Kong and plans to open 300 new stores in 22 years.
Announcement of key companies: Xiabu Xiabu plans to pay out 0.028rmb per share Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Helens, Sipu Sipu, Naixue's tea, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) issued the performance announcement in 2021.
Risk tips
The global epidemic is repeated, the opening of restaurants is less than expected, the light management, the operation quality of hotels is less than expected, and the cost of raw materials is rising.
