This week’s view
[Baijiu sector]: Fearless pandemic disturbance, strongly recommend 22Q1 performance strong determinant
Sector review: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) “I Maotai” e-commerce platform was launched as scheduled, and the performance in 2021 was in line with expectations
March 28th ~4 1, 5 trading days, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.43%, food and beverage sector rose 2.90%, Baijiu sector rose more than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 3.06%. Specifically, the Baijiu sector is specific, Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) (+6.54%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (+5.33%) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (+4.60%) rise and fall in the top, and Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.Ltd(600197) gains rose for many weeks in a row. The main reason is that Xinjiang’s economy is better than expected, and the catering and consumption scene is restored. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) excellent performance is mainly due to the release of 2021 annual report and the launch of e-commerce platform “I Maotai” this week. The annual report quarter of this month and the continuous promotion of liquor enterprise reform measures are expected to continue to be an important catalyst this month:
1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the year 2021 meets the expectation, and the target will be accelerated to 15% in 2022, and the high growth can be expected. In 2021, the company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 106190 billion yuan and 52.460 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.88% and 12.34% respectively, and the gross profit margin increased by 0.13 percentage points to 91.54% year-on-year. Specifically, in 2021, the company’s revenue of Maotai liquor and other series of liquor increased by 10.18% and 26.06% year-on-year to 93.465 billion yuan and 12.595 billion yuan respectively, and the ton price changed by 4.26%, 24.25% to 25775 and 417400 yuan / ton respectively compared with the same period last year, thus promoting the gross profit margin to change by 0.04% and 3.55 percentage points to 94.03% and 73.69% respectively compared with the same period last year. In addition, the effect of channel reform is remarkable, and the proportion of direct sales channels has reached 23%. Recently, dealers have basically completed the payment in March, and the non-standard delivery volume is large. They are optimistic about the high growth certainty of 22q1 performance.
2) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : “I Maotai” e-commerce platform was launched as scheduled, which is expected to further promote marketing reform. “I Maotai” went online as scheduled recently and is currently in the trial operation stage. We believe that: 1) the ex factory price of the four non-standard new products on the line is high, which is conducive to thickening the profit of the joint stock company (the channel profit is about 100 yuan); 2) The company took the lead in launching four new products to prepare for the subsequent launch of more products. It is expected that some Maotai Liquor / Series liquor of this year’s increment will be launched to the e-commerce platform (it is expected that Feitian Maotai will be launched before May); 2) On the basis of the former Maotai cloud business, “I Maotai” has added a new customer member management system / random drawing of lots / offline delivery with ID card / participation of exclusive stores (exclusive stores pick up goods from their own stores for preparation) / higher change and fairer digitization, laying the foundation for more accurate delivery, more reasonable channel profit distribution and stronger channel control; 3) Provide a product release platform for non-standard products.
3) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : the performance of 22q1 reached 1 billion, and V9 led the structural upgrading. The company released 2022q1 performance forecast: 22q1 is expected to achieve revenue of about 3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 24% (the operating data from January to February of 22 years show that the revenue and net profit increased by about 25% and 26% respectively), and the performance is in line with the expectation. 22q1 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) as a whole is less affected by the epidemic. The performance of the price band of 100300 yuan is significantly better than that in previous years. The collection is fast and large, the structure is stable and upward, and the current inventory level is benign. By product: ① V Series: the growth of V series doubled in 21 years. Under the outbreak of 22q1 gift demand, V9 is expected to contribute significantly. V3 is still in the period of market adjustment, and it is expected to increase in volume after the price is stable. ② Guoyuan series: the growth rate of Sikai has slowed down slightly under the high base, benefiting from the expansion of price band / product advantages, and the growth rate of medium and high-end products such as folio and elegant Guoyuan may exceed that of Sikai. ③ Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) series: Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) activation war continues, D10 / 20 grows rapidly, and the old earth performs well.
4) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : the old version of sea blue has been completely discontinued, and the new version of sea blue may be on the market. According to media reports, on March 31, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) issued a notice on the overall suspension of the old version of haizhilan. The notice shows that from April 1, 2022, the old version of haizhilan products will stop placing orders and invoicing. It is expected that the new version of haizhilan will be listed and upgraded around May 1, and the price system may rise.
[Conclusion] the current market is generally worried about demand side and dynamic terminal performance (such as a two-tier high-end consumption is temporarily inhibited or affects the high-end liquor price / two quarter Baijiu demand or affected, thus affecting the performance of the two quarter). We think that the demand for high end wine is strong against risk, and subsequent supplementary consumption will achieve partial remission of the loss during the epidemic period. We still optimistic about the Baijiu sector performance.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rated price fluctuated significantly this week, and the overall inventory performance was healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : affected by the temporary non launch of e-commerce platform, the approval price of Feitian Maotai rose to 2660 yuan in the middle of this week, and then fell back to 2630 yuan after normal fluctuation. The approval price of the whole box is about 2840 yuan, and the approval price of Maotai 1935 is about 1350 yuan. The contract in 2022 has been renewed this month, and the original price and quota will be implemented in April. With the launch of e-commerce platform, the approval price of Feitian Maotai may be effectively controlled in stages Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : this week’s rating is stable at 970 yuan, and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rating is about 1800 yuan. Recently Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) increased retail prices are superimposed to accelerate market self-examination or further increase the rating Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the wholesale price is about 910920 yuan. The payment began in early March (the comprehensive cost was increased to 980 yuan). The growth target of Guojiao in 22 years is 30%, and the overall performance of the wholesale price is stable.
Investment suggestion: under the disturbance of the epidemic situation, firmly recommend the target of high growth and strong certainty of 22q1 performance
The current annual report quarter & the phased implementation of wine enterprise reform measures will be the main catalyst at this stage. Considering that the early sector has experienced a decline of “basically facing the good trend, mainly disturbed by the emotional side” & the valuation of the sector has also been cost-effective, it is recommended to make a positive layout. Although Baijiu consumption is subject to some disturbance, we strongly recommend 22Q1’s strong performance and high margin: annual margin and marginal performance change, and the current valuation has the following targets: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .
beer sector : the sector will go up this week and pay attention to the opportunity of post epidemic repair
Plate review: this week, the sector went up, and Tsingtao beer and heavy beer had a bright performance in 21 years
From March 28 to April 1, the CSI 300 index rose 2.43% in five trading days, the food and beverage sector rose 2.90%, and the beer sector rose more than the CSI 300 by 3.33%.
Specifically, for the beer sector, Chongqing beer (+ 4.82%), Budweiser Asia Pacific (+ 4.19%), China Resources beer (+ 4.17%), Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (+ 3.81%), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (+ 2.01%). The sector rose significantly this week. Both Tsingtao beer and heavy beer disclosed their annual reports this week. The performance growth rate of Budweiser Asia Pacific (+ 4.19%), China Resources beer (+ 4.17%). We believe that we should pay attention to the impact of the epidemic in the main sales areas of wine enterprises and the repair opportunities of the beer sector after the epidemic eased.
Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) update: the high-end process has been continuously promoted, and the profitability has been significantly improved
Event: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 30.167 billion yuan, an increase of 8.67% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.34%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.207 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.54%.
Specifically: 1) products: focus on Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) main brand, price increase + structural upgrading to cope with the cost upward ① volume: the overall sales volume in 21 years was 7.93 million kiloliters (+ 1.38%), of which the sales volume of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) main brand was 4.329 million kiloliters (+ 11.6%), the sales volume of main brand was the highest in the history of nearly 10 years, and the sales volume of high-end products was 520000 kiloliters (+ 14.2%), of which the growth of white beer was nearly doubled, pure, classic 1903 all achieved double-digit growth. ② Price: in the past 21 years, the average price of the company has increased by 7.2% to 3804 yuan / kiloliter, of which the average price of the main brand Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) is 4572 yuan / kiloliter (+ 2.8%). So far, the price of main single products has been increased by about 5% – 10% +. 2) Market: in the past 21 years, Shandong’s market volume and price rose simultaneously, realizing an income of 19.747 billion yuan (+ 9.5%), the growth rate of North China’s market was bright, and the southeast region turned losses into profits. 3) Profit: the effect of cost reduction and efficiency increase is remarkable. Under the same caliber, the gross profit margin in 21 years increased by 1.28pct to 36.73%, and the effect of closing the factory is remarkable. Tsingtao Beer’s business performance improved from January to February in 22 years. The epidemic in Qingdao in March did not affect the production and operation of five major factories. White beer grew rapidly and the price increase was conducted smoothly. We are still optimistic about the acceleration of the high-end process of Tsingtao beer and the continuous improvement of profitability.
Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) update: 21q4 turns losses into profits, and structural upgrading promotes profitability
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. Under the standard of preparation, the company realized a revenue of 13.191 billion yuan (+ 19.90%), a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.166 billion yuan (+ 38.82%) and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 1.143 billion yuan (+ 76.14%) in 2021; 21q4 achieved an income of 1.933 billion yuan (+ 1.08%), a net profit attributable to the parent of 122 million yuan (turning losses into profits), and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 117 million yuan (turning losses into profits).
Specifically: 1) products: 21q4 turned losses into profits, and the main reasons for the high growth of performance: ① volume: the sales volume of beer in 2021 was 2.7894 million kiloliters (+ 15.10%), of which the sales volume of high-grade beer increased by 4.29 percentage points to 23.72%, the sales volume of Wusu increased by about 34% year-on-year, the growth rate outside Xinjiang exceeded 40%, the sales volume of 1664 increased by about 36% year-on-year, and Chongqing and Lebao achieved double-digit growth; ② Price: thanks to structural upgrading + price increase of 3% – 8%, the average price in 2021 is 4703 yuan / kiloliter (+ 4.18%), still leading China’s major wine enterprises. 2) Market: in 2021, the Northwest / central / South District will achieve sales of 89.19 (+ 20.75%) / 122.14 (+ 12.19%) / 67.61 (+ 13.40%) million kiloliters in 2021. The sales volume in all regions will achieve double-digit growth, and the average price in the South District will increase significantly. This year, all major cities will carry out all channel and all brand combination development; 3) Profitability: in 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 50.94% (+ 3.26pct), and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company (for reference) was 8.89% (+ 1.21pct). The company responded to the rising costs through global procurement, supply chain optimization, scale effect and price adjustment, and its profitability is expected to continue to improve this year. We believe that in March this year, the company’s main market was limited by the impact of the epidemic, Q1 is still expected to maintain a medium double-digit growth, Wusu territory is expected to recover and maintain a high growth rate this year, and the price increase in the off-season is expected to release the performance elasticity and improve profitability in the peak season. It is suggested to pay attention to the demand repair opportunities after the epidemic eased.
Investment suggestion: pay attention to the repair opportunities of beer sector after the epidemic
The upgrading trend of high-end beer industry continues. We pay attention to the 22-year profit margin improvement + industry pattern optimization brought by the price increase and landing. The recent epidemic has repeatedly affected the demand, resulting in sector correction. We suggest to pay attention to the sector repair opportunities under the control of the epidemic, and we recommend to pay attention to Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , etc.
II. [food sector]: focus on the allocation opportunities of dairy leaders
Sector review: the sector rose slightly this week, and the epidemic affected the short-term performance of some sectors
Plate growth: March 28th -4 1, the food processing sector rose 4.68%, of which condiment sector rose 0.87%, dairy sector rose 3.47%, meat sector rose 6.99%, the food composite sector rose 2.19%, the beer sector rose 3.33%.
On the rise and fall of individual stocks: Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 25.85%), Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (+ 10.22%), Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (+ 7.63%) ranked among the top three in the sector. In the meat products sector, Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (+ 10.22%), Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 4.77%) and Longda food (+ 2.90%) were among the top gainers; In the condiment sector, Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) (+ 2.85%), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (+ 2.36%), Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) (+ 1.31%) rose slightly; In the dairy sector, Royal Group Co.Ltd(002329) (+ 5.12%), St Cody (+ 5.02%) and Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd(600419) (+ 4.70) led the increase; In the comprehensive food sector, Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 25.85%) led the rise, while Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (+ 7.63%) and Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) (+ 6.19%) followed the rise.
This week’s view: the performance of mass products is expected to be under pressure in 22q1. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the sector opportunities brought by the multi factor improvement of 22q2!
At present, it is in the disclosure period of the first quarterly report of the annual report. We believe that due to the short-term impact of the rising cost + epidemic on demand and supply, the performance of Volkswagen product 22q1 is expected to be under pressure, and we pay attention to the opportunities of segment brought by subsequent multi factor improvement.
In the face of the repeated impact of the epidemic on the demand side and the pressure of rising industry costs, it is expected that the performance of 22q1 in the mass products sector will continue to be under pressure. We still believe that dairy leaders with relatively stable demand and continuous improvement of profitability have certain allocation opportunities, mainly due to:
1) under the background of slow overall recovery of demand, the demand for just needed products is more stable, so the required consumer goods are better than the optional consumer goods; At the same time, considering the slowing competition and improved profitability of the dairy industry, the dairy sector has certain allocation opportunities.
2) from the perspective of anti inflation, the current macro-economy has stagflation expectations. Therefore, in terms of target selection, priority can be given to Baima leader, such as Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Mengniu Dairy and Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) .
In the face of 22q2, we need to focus on and track the improvement of multiple factors (epidemic resolution, demand recovery and cost pressure reduction) mentioned earlier. Here, we focus on the leisure snack sector, frozen baking sector and some individual stock targets with obvious improvement opportunities in 22q2!
At present, in the face of the repeated impact of the epidemic on the demand side and the pressure of rising industry costs, it is expected that
1. Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) : 2021 annual performance review
[annual performance] in 2021, the annual revenue reached 10.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.06 billion yuan (government subsidy was 280 million yuan, 168 million yuan last year), a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. The gross profit margin was 27.3%, down 6.7pct from the same period last year, mainly due to the rise in the prices of bulk commodity raw materials and molasses; The net interest rate was 12.4%, down 3.5pct from the same period last year.
[single quarter performance] in 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 3.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 290 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 1.1% year-on-year to RMB 4.1 billion. The gross profit margin was 21.8%, an increase of 3.6pct over the same period last year; The net interest rate was 9.4%, down 5.2pct from the same period last year.
[situation by region] China’s revenue in 2021 7
