The national Standing Committee once again showed its determination to stabilize growth, which is the window period for the layout of infrastructure and real estate industry chain
On Tuesday (March 29), the State Council held an executive meeting. The meeting stressed the need to make good use of government bonds, expand effective investment, and promote the improvement of weaknesses and the growth of the economy. In addition, the meeting decided to start a number of new water conservancy projects with mature conditions, and start a number of follow-up projects of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, which have been included in the plan. The annual water conservancy investment in 2022 can be about 800 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, and the cases have reached a phased high, affecting the demand side such as travel, consumption and industry. The strong statement of the national standing committee meeting once again demonstrated the central government’s determination to stabilize growth. On the whole, the fundamentals of building materials are weak due to the impact of demand. If the epidemic is controlled in the future, the infrastructure and real estate development under the steady growth policy will start, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to rebound significantly. Recently, many places have gradually relaxed their real estate policies, mainly involving targeted relaxation of purchase restrictions, reduction of down payment ratio, issuance of house purchase subsidies, reduction of mortgage interest rate, cancellation of sales restrictions, provision of financial support for real estate enterprises, etc. we believe that the turning point of real estate may be approaching gradually, which is an excellent layout window period of the real estate industry chain. Beneficiary objects: consumer building materials with greater flexibility under the expected improvement of real estate: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , China Liansu; The direction of the infrastructure industry chain is clear, and the beneficiaries are: Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) . As China’s first carbon fiber enterprise to achieve a breakthrough in dry jet wet spinning technology, Zhongfu Shenying will officially list on the science and innovation board and land in the capital market on April 6, 2022. According to the announcement, Zhongfu Shenying plans to issue 100 million shares at a price of 29.33 yuan per share, raising a total of 2.933 billion yuan, which will be used for “Xining project with an annual output of 10000 tons of high-performance carbon fiber and supporting precursor”, “aerospace high-performance carbon fiber and precursor test line project” and “carbon fiber aviation application R & D and manufacturing project”. The successful listing of Zhongfu Shenying will broaden its own financing channels, help the completion and implementation of its own high-quality projects, or lead the high-quality development of the industry. In the context of “double carbon”, the low-carbon transformation of energy is the main line of certainty, and carbon fiber, photovoltaic glass and glass fiber will continue to benefit from the growth of demand. Beneficiary: carbon fiber Faucet: Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying; Photovoltaic glass Faucet: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; Glass fiber Faucet: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
Market review this week
This week (from March 28 to April 1, 2022), the building materials index rose 6.29%, the CSI 300 index rose 2.43%, and the building materials index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.86 percentage points. In the past three months, the CSI 300 index fell 13.05%, the building materials index fell 10.86%, and the building materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.19 percentage points. Over the past year, the CSI 300 index fell 16.81%, the building materials index fell 13.88%, and the building materials sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.93 percentage points.
Plate data tracking
Cement: as of April 1, the national p.o42 5. The average price of bulk cement was 472.44 yuan / ton, down slightly by 0.77% month on month; The national clinker storage capacity ratio was 59.06%, with a month on month increase of 3.37%; The price difference between cement and coal was 304.09 yuan / ton, up 12.07% month on month.
Glass: as of April 1, the average spot price of float glass nationwide was 205289 yuan / ton, down 41.77 yuan / ton month on month, or 1.99%; The average price of photovoltaic glass was 162.84 yuan / weight box, up slightly by 0.21% month on month; Float glass inventory was 56.24 million weight boxes, with a month on month decrease of 210000 weight boxes, a decrease of 0.37%; The price difference of float glass soda ash petroleum coke was 22.8 yuan / weight box, down 19.2% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash heavy oil was 31.28 yuan / weight box, down 7.45% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash natural gas was 40.31 yuan / weight box, down 7.19% month on month; The price difference of photovoltaic glass soda ash natural gas was 98.65 yuan / weight box, which was basically the same month on month.
Glass fiber: as of April 1, the mainstream ex factory price of alkali free 2400 winding direct yarn was Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited(600064) 50 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex jet ply yarn is 955010000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex SMC ply yarn was 8 China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) 0 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. The mainstream transaction price of electronic yarn is 950010000 yuan / ton, down 4.17% month on month.
Carbon fiber: as of April 1, the average price of small tow carbon fiber in China was 225 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The average price of large tow carbon fiber in China was 145 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The national carbon fiber inventory was 12 tons, down 7.69% month on month; The operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises was 65.76%, down 0.59% month on month; The gross profit of carbon fiber was 5746667 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.35%.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; Supply and demand mismatch risk; Downside risks of economic growth; China’s monetary and real estate policies are becoming stricter; China’s credit is lower than expected
