Core view
Shipping: this week, the CCFI composite index reported 3204.8 points, down 2.1% month on month, of which the US West Route reported 2436.6 points, down 3.3% month on month, and the European line reported 5162.2 points, down 2.3% month on month. The decline in cargo volume brought by the Chinese new year has given us ports a breathing space. Since February, the efficiency of the supply chain has continued to improve. The recent outbreak in China has superimposed the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and geopolitical impact, and the volume and freight rate have both fallen. The overall profitability of the industry may enter the stage of stress test. However, we believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic at the current time point. In 21 years, due to the owners’ cautious expansion of transport capacity, the supply and demand of the industry will continue to be mismatched in 22-23 years, and the overall profitability of the industry will remain at a high level. The current valuation has strong attraction.
Airports: the three major airlines disclosed their annual reports. Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines lost 16.64/121.0/12.21 billion respectively, with a slight increase in the range of losses. The introduction of the three major aircraft fleets is overall cautious, and the continuous low growth of transport capacity will create preconditions for the reversal of supply and demand. At present, the policy adheres to the “dynamic clearing” unswervingly, and the occasional epidemic may still have an impact on the operation of civil aviation. However, if the choice is loose one day, the demand for civil aviation is expected to recover rapidly. It is auspicious to recommend three major airlines, spring and autumn. The traffic monopoly position and high-quality consumption scene of the hub airport gathering high net worth passengers have not fundamentally changed due to the epidemic. At present, due to the pressure on the performance of international passenger reduction, once the door is opened, the performance of the airport will be greatly improved. Recommend Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Express delivery: we estimate that in the past 2-3 weeks, the epidemic has led to a 10% – 20% reduction in the business volume of the express industry. At the same time, considering the impact of the reduction of business volume on the allocation of fixed costs, we expect the negative impact on the short-term profits of express enterprises to exceed the business volume. However, the impact of the epidemic is one-time, and the demand for short-term express delivery is more restrained than disappeared. We believe that after the recovery of the epidemic, the demand for express delivery is expected to rebound. Considering that the profits of the leading express companies will be greatly repaired this year and the current valuation is relatively cheap, we continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Zhongtong express.
Logistics & small and medium-sized stocks: select high-quality stocks in the logistics industry and recommend Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) performance increased continuously and continued to be recommended; Add coverage Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) , recommend Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Anhui Anli Material Technology Co.Ltd(300218) , Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) , pay attention to Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) .
Investment suggestion: in the transportation sector, the dispersion of the epidemic situation and the free flow of people, goods and goods are a step-by-step process. The high-level operation of centralized transportation (especially in the first half of the year), the easing of express competition and integration will be high probability events. The airport is relatively disturbed and suitable for long-term layout; Chemical and hazardous chemicals logistics has benefited from the increasing proportion of production and consumption in China and Asia year by year. Under the background of strong government supervision, it has gradually liberalized the qualification approval of leading enterprises, and the improvement of concentration is expected to accelerate. In addition, it pays attention to relevant stocks in the real estate industry chain; Recommendations: Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , pay attention to Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) . Small and medium-sized market capitalization still follows the main line of reasonable valuation + marginal change + sustainable growth, trying to find individual stocks with sustained growth and compound interest effect. Comprehensively considering the growth and valuation levels of individual stocks, taking stock’s growth and valuation levels into account comprehensively, the growth and valuation levels of a stock, continuing to recommend the growth and valuation level of a stock, continuing to recommend the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 585 , Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the oil price and exchange rate fluctuate violently
