Core view
The emotional low point of this round of epidemic has passed, and the opportunity of leading oversold is grasped. Maintain over allocation rating. Since March, the epidemic situation in China has been sporadic and spreading again. The short-term travel in China is expected to be restricted, and the operating enterprises in the epidemic area are expected to be under pressure at this stage. At present, the central government has also successively issued rescue policies for the service industry, and the prevention and control measures are becoming more and more accurate and scientific. The market is still looking forward to the gradual improvement on the edge in the future. Based on the uncertainty of short-term repeated outbreaks and the positive expectation that the midline epidemic is stabilizing on the back of repeated short-term uncertainties and the positive expectation of the midline epidemic, based on the 3-6-month dimension, taking into account performance, valuation, subject matter and recovery logic, based on the 3-6-month dimension, taking into account performance, valuation, subject matter and recovery logic, based on the uncertainty of repeated short-term outbreaks and the positive expectation that the midline epidemic is poisebased on repeated and repeated uncertainties of short-term outbreaks and the positive expectation of the midline epidemic stabilistabilizing the midline epidemic, based on a 3-6-6-month dimension, taking into account performance, valuation, subject matter and recovery logic, preferably China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) 662 , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongcheng travel, Huazhu group-s, yum China-s, Haidilao, etc. Based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, and based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, we suggest that we continue to stand on the quality bibcock of the boom subdivision circuit, and combine with the quality bibcock of the boom subdivision, the quality bibcock of the prime of the next 1-3 years, and the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, and the time dimension of the next 1-3 years. Our recommendations, based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years to come. Our recommendations, based on the time dimension of the next 1-3 years and the time dimension of the next 1-3 years, and combining with the logic change of midline logic, etc, etc, combining with the logic change of midline logic, etc, and combining with a combination of midline logic change, etc, and combining with the highlights to highlight to highlight China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) 888888888888888888888888888888888888 , Naixue's tea, etc.
A quarterly forecast: the impact of the epidemic is expected to be mostly under pressure. Under the repeated epidemic situation, we expect the performance Q1 of key companies in duty-free social service sector, hotels, restaurants and scenic spots to be under pressure to varying degrees; Only the performance of Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) Q1 may increase by about 30%, and Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) is expected to be flat and increase slightly. The above forecast is for reference only. In March, the epidemic situation repeatedly underperformed the market. In March, the sector fell by 15.04%, underperforming the market by 6.44 PCT, and restaurants, hotels and China free service all fell significantly, mainly due to the obvious recurrence of the epidemic and the external situation.
It is expected that since March, Hainan has been under pressure for tax exemption, and some e-commerce regulate online sales of duty-free goods. From January to February, the duty-free sales of Hainan outlying islands increased by 38% and the income and performance of China tax exemption increased by 20%, and the net interest rate rebounded significantly; But it is expected to decline in March. It is still necessary to track the impact of the epidemic in the near future (the business of duty-free stores in China tax exemption, China maritime travel service and China Service Sanya has been suspended since 4.2). Some e-commerce companies prohibit non licensees from engaging in duty-free online sales in Hainan.
The three hotel groups disclosed the financial report of 2021, and the epidemic disturbed the opening rhythm of Songcheng project. In 2021, Jinjiang Huazhu reduced losses, the first brigade turned losses into profits, and the 21q4 epidemic was under pressure repeatedly. Looking forward to 2022, the goal of opening stores in Jinjiang is the same year-on-year, and the revenue is expected to increase by 20-25% (9% - 14%); Huazhu expects its revenue to increase by 15-20% (4-9% in China) in 2022, and its new stores are flat year-on-year; The first brigade will speed up its store opening goal in 2022, and plans to open 18002000 new stores (previously 14001600), dominated by light management stage. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, most projects in Songcheng are still closed. Only Hangzhou resumed the park in early April, and Lijiang and Xinzheng projects are currently in operation.
Most other sectors have been under pressure recently. During the Qingming holiday, the number of tourists and income in China only recovered 68% and 39%, and the epidemic situation was low after repeated outbreaks; From January to February, China's catering revenue increased by 9, and domino China submitted its prospectus.
Risk tips: natural disasters, epidemic situation, political and other systematic risks; Policy risk; The acquisition is lower than expected, etc
