Geopolitical conflicts continue to affect supply shocks or become the main line in the future
Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, energy prices remained high. The oil distribution fell this week, but it was still higher than US $100. The price of natural gas rose again. High energy prices continued to put pressure on metal production. At the same time, LME announced that it would stop hoarding metals from some Russian enterprises, including Rusal and Norilsk Nickel. The price of metal will become the main line of the supply chain in the future, as well as the impact of geopolitical conflict. This week, LME copper rose 0.02% to close at US $102695/ton; LME aluminum fell – 4.58% to close at US $3440 / ton; LME lead rose 2.57% to close at US $2441 / ton; LME zinc rose 6.50% to close at US $4331 / ton; LME tin rose 4.08% to close at US $44010 / ton; LME nickel fell – 4.20% to close at US $34000 / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Both supply and demand sides support lithium prices to maintain a high level, and rare earth prices continue to decline
The prices of battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were the same as last week, with 514000 yuan / ton and 493900 yuan / ton respectively. In March, lithium prices continued to rise and supply remained tight. In the short term, both ends of supply and demand will still support lithium prices to remain high. Combined with the development of lithium batteries, long-term demand will be better. In terms of cobalt, the price is still at a high level, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the current demand is poor, and there is a good trend in the later stage. Rare earth prices continued to decline this week, and the supply of rare earth mines was tight, but the demand support was strong, and the rare earth prices were expected to stabilize. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
In March, PMI fell against the seasonal trend, and the epidemic hit the demand for industrial metals
In March, China’s manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7% month on month. The purchase price index and ex factory price index were 66.1% and 56.7% respectively, up 6.1% and 2.6% month on month. The manufacturing industry is not booming in the peak season; It is noteworthy that PMI in the construction industry rebounded by 0.5% month on month against the trend. As an important starting point for steady growth, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate the landing and stimulate industrial metal consumption. China’s epidemic control is strict, affecting the transportation of raw materials. Downstream processing enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui are facing the pressure of shutdown and production reduction, and the downstream demand is restrained. Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell – 0.56% to close at 73370 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum fell – 1.80% to close at 22745 yuan / ton; Lead rose 2.47% to close at 15680 yuan / ton; Zinc rose 2.32% to close at 26950 yuan / ton; Tin fell – 1.39% to close at 342690 yuan / ton; Nickel fell – 17.24% to close at 220350 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , etc.
The employment data continues to improve, and the gold price may remain volatile
The United States released employment data for March, adding 431000 non-agricultural employees, with a labor participation rate of 62.4% and an unemployment rate of 3.6%; The continuous improvement of employment combined with high inflation, and the expectation of interest rate increase is relatively clear. This week, spot gold in London fell – 1.68% to close at US $192478 / ounce, while the US dollar index fell – 0.24% to close at 98.57; COMEX gold fell – 0.36% to US $194270 / oz this week, while Comex silver fell – 3.36% to US $24.65 / oz. Considering the expectation of interest rate increase and short-term high inflation, the price of gold may fluctuate.
Risk warning: Geopolitics, lower than expected downstream demand and repeated epidemic.
