\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 377 China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) )
Core view
The performance maintained a high growth track, and roe continued to be the industry leader. 1) In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 18.972 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.48%. 2) In 2021, the company achieved a weighted average roe12.5% 04%, a year-on-year increase of 1PCT, 4pct + higher than the industry average, and continued to be in the forefront of the industry. By the end of the year, the equity multiplier had reached 3.81, an increase of 0.19 over the beginning of the year. 3) In terms of business structure, the revenue of big asset management, self operation, brokerage, credit and investment banking (excluding other businesses) accounted for 33%, 25%, 23%, 11% and 8% respectively, of which the contribution of big asset management revenue increased by 8 percentage points.
Its dual funds carried the “bright banner” of large asset management, and both brokerage and credit income increased significantly. 1) In the 21st year, the company realized a revenue of 4.954 billion yuan from large asset management business, a year-on-year increase of + 50.90%. Xingquan fund, which is controlled by its subsidiary, and Nanfang fund, which is a shareholder, realized net profits of 2.235 billion yuan and 2.163 billion yuan respectively in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 39.96% and 45.74% respectively. Driven by this, the profit contribution of asset management (converted by share ratio) increased from 26% in 20 years to 30%. 2) In 21 years, the market share of the company’s stock based turnover decreased slightly from 1.71% to 1.65%. Benefiting from the high activity of the market, the brokerage income increased by 28.17% year-on-year to 3.561 billion yuan, of which the income from selling financial products on a commission basis increased by 45.62% to 664 million yuan (the proportion of brokerage income increased from 17% to 20%). 3) By the end of the year, the balance of the two financial institutions had reached 33.587 billion yuan, an increase of 9.20% over the beginning of the year. The market share decreased slightly from 1.90% at the beginning of the year to 1.83%. The interest income of the two financial institutions increased by 29% in the same year, helping the overall net interest income increase by 47.70% to 1.724 billion yuan year-on-year.
The continuous expansion of the scale of financial assets is difficult to change the shrinking situation of self operated income, and the market share of IPO underwriting amount decreased slightly. 1) By the end of the 21st century, the company’s financial investment assets had increased by 11.55% over the beginning of the year to 82.235 billion yuan; Among them, the scale of funds and bonds increased by 52.61% and 12.85% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. In contrast, due to the increased volatility of the stock market and the weakening of the profit-making effect, the scale of stocks decreased by 3% compared with the beginning of the year, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 21.42% to 3.728 billion yuan. 2) The company achieved investment banking revenue of 1.242 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 9.90%. Among them, the company completed the IPO business scale of 10.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.70%, and the market share decreased from 1.90% to 1.67%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Adjust the return on investment and other indicators according to the annual report, adjust the forecast value of BVPs from 6.71/7.42 to 6.69/7.34 yuan in 22-23 years, increase the 24-year forecast value by 8.12 yuan, and adopt sotp segment Valuation: 1) the large asset management segment adopts comparable company valuation, and give the segment 22-year 21.0xpe, corresponding to 35.610 billion yuan; 2) Give 0.8xpb to other divisions for 22 years, corresponding to 35.824 billion yuan. Adjust the target price to 10.67 yuan and maintain the company’s overweight rating.
Risk tips
The impact of the policy on the industry exceeded expectations; The dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and valuation.
