\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 179 Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) )
Core view
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021, and the annual operating revenue was 12.867 billion yuan (+ 24.86%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.991 billion yuan (+ 38.35%). In the single quarter of 2021q4, the company realized an operating revenue of 2.990 billion yuan (+ 13.31%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 368 million yuan (+ 8.27%).
The scale of revenue increased rapidly, and the net interest rate reached a new high in ten years. In the past 21 years, the company had full orders for military products, and its business in the fields of communication and industry continued to expand new markets and products. The new energy vehicle business focused on mainstream customers and products, realizing a revenue of 12.867 billion yuan (+ 24.86%). The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 1.991 billion yuan (+ 38.35%), the profit growth was significantly faster than the revenue growth, and the gross profit margin increased by + 0.97 PCT to 37.00%, which may be due to the increase in the proportion of military products & the optimization of product and customer structure. During the 21 years, the company's expense rate was 19.87% (+ 0.31pct), of which the R & D expense rate increased by + 0.81pct to 10.15%. High R & D investment laid the foundation for the company's long-term development. The net interest rate of the company in 21 years reached the highest level in 10 years, reaching 16.52% (+ 1.66pct).
Inventories and contractual liabilities increased significantly, and forward-looking indicators indicate a sustained high boom. At the end of the year, the company's inventory reached 4.73 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 69.41%. As the company's connectors are basically customized products and adopts the "production by sales" mode, the significant increase in inventory shows that there is strong demand in the downstream and great growth potential in the future. At the same time, the company's contract liabilities reached 1.03 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase of 246.00%, indicating that the company's defense business is highly sustainable in the 14th Five Year Plan period, and its future performance is expected to maintain high growth.
The high prosperity of military products in the 14th five year plan + the optimization of 5g product structure of civil products have brought performance flexibility, and the company has maintained rapid growth. Military products: information construction + military products in the 14th five year plan will go up again. The company is the leader of military products connector, with a high market share, and the growth rate of military products business is expected to increase. Communication: the company has long supported Chinese and foreign communication giants. 5g construction started and orders grew rapidly. The growth of the company's high-speed backplane and other new products is expected to bring a significant increase in profit volume / profitability. New energy vehicles: with broad prospects, the company has a high share in the market layout of domestic new energy vehicles. In 2020, it has achieved the transformation and development of "world-class and Chinese mainstream", completed the fixed-point projects of several key models, carried out the construction of automatic and intelligent production lines, accelerated the certification review and cooperation process with international first-class vehicle enterprises, and has broad growth space.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the 21st Annual Report, adjust the revenue of optical devices and other businesses and take into account the increase of the company's R & D expense rate, adjust the EPS of 22-23 years to 2.34 and 2.96 yuan (formerly 2.52 and 3.24 yuan), add a new 24-year EPS of 3.74 yuan, and give the target price of 93.6 yuan with reference to the price earnings ratio of 40 times that of the comparable company in 22 years, so as to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The progress of military orders and revenue recognition is less than expected
