Zhongfu Shenying (688295)
The industrialization leader of carbon fiber industry has entered the stage of rapid growth. The company is the leader and industrialization leader of carbon fiber in China, and has systematically mastered the thousand ton and hundred ton technologies of carbon fiber T300 / T700 / T800 / M30 / M35 and M40 / T1000. Since 2020, under the background of "limited overseas supply", the demand for wind, solar and hydrogen has exploded. The company has "sharpened a sword in ten years" and continuously optimized its technology and process. The company has taken the lead in turning losses into profits in the field of civil carbon fiber, crossed the "0-1" stage, and achieved revenue / net profit of 1.17/280 billion, yoy + 120% / 227% in 2021. We expect that with the landing of the company's IPO and the full operation of Xining base, the company is expected to enter the high-speed growth stage of "1-N".
Capacity expansion and acceleration; The supply and demand of small and medium-sized tow high-performance products are in tight balance. 1) Medium and small tow carbon fibers produced by dry jet wet process generally correspond to T700 and above properties, and are mostly used in medium and high-end fields such as aerospace, carbon / carbon composites, hydrogen energy and so on; The large tow T300 and above products produced by wet process are mostly used in wind power and other fields because of their high cost performance. 2) Demand: driven by the continuous high growth of demand for wind, light and hydrogen, it is estimated that the global demand for carbon fiber will be about 281000 tons in 2025, CAGR + 21%. 3) Supply: the expansion of domestic leading capacity is accelerated. We expect the global effective capacity of large tow to be 5.9/7.6108000 tons from 2021 to 2023, yoy + 10% / 30% / 42%; The effective capacity of small and medium-sized tow is 6.7/7.687000 tons, yoy + 4% / 14% / 15%. 4) Prosperity: the supply and demand of small and medium-sized carbon fiber bundles is expected to remain tight; The supply and demand of large tow products may be gradually relaxed, providing a solid foundation for win-win of the wind power industry chain.
The company has obvious advantages in technology / scale and cost / products / talents / shareholders, and its competitiveness continues to increase. 1) Technology: the company is the first to break through the dry jet wet spinning process in China. It is also the only enterprise in the field of carbon fiber in China that has won the first prize of the national science and technology progress award. In the field of small and medium-sized tow, the company keeps leading technology in polymerization / spinning / pre oxidation, carbonization / industrialization and so on. At the same time, the company is also actively seeking cooperation in the field of large tow research and development. 2) Scale and cost: by the end of 2021, the company's production capacity was 13500 tons, ranking in the forefront of China. In the future, with the 14000 ton production line of Xining phase II put into operation, the company's production capacity is expected to reach 27500 tons, which is expected to be among the top in the world. The cost of the company is leading in the industry. In 2020, the cost per ton of the company is 80000 yuan. With the production capacity of 24000 tons in Xining put into operation, the unit depreciation / unit energy consumption can be reduced through scale effect, and the electricity price is about 43% lower than that in the East, which has great room for decline in energy cost, depreciation, labor, etc. 3) Products: the company's products have excellent performance / rich models, which can be comparable to Dongli, and the product structure continues to be medium and high-end. Aerospace / carbon carbon / hydrogen energy and other high value-added fields accounted for 46.9% in 2021h1. In the IPO strategic placement, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) / Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) / Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) / Jiangsu Tianniao and other industrial chain customers were placed. 4) Talent: the core technical staff team has established a management team, the management salary and equity incentive are leading in the industry, and the chairman is the chief engineer to ensure the stability of Technology / management. Five of the company's six core technicians are senior executives, ranking first in the industry. After listing, Mr. Zhang Guoliang, the chairman, held 13.9% of the shares, and 8 senior executives and core employees held 0.9% / 0.4% (obtained through strategic placement). 5) Shareholder: the actual controller, China building materials (holding 57.3% after listing), has rich management and market experience in the field of new materials to escort the long-term development of the company; Yingyou group, the second largest shareholder (holding 26.7% after listing), can provide the company with stable customized carbon fiber equipment and effectively prevent technology spillover.
Investment suggestion: the company is a high-quality leader of carbon fiber, with obvious advantages in technology / scale and cost / products / talents / shareholders. Capacity expansion and cost reduction have entered the fast lane, and continue to promote the domestic substitution of carbon fiber. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 560 / 870 / 1.16 billion from 2022 to 2024, and the corresponding PE will be 48 / 30 / 23 times according to the issuance price. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: management risks of production capacity falling short of expectations, sharp price decline, raw material price increase and scale expansion
