\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
The performance is in line with expectations. In 2021, the annual operating revenue was 75.110 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 5.977 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. In the fourth quarter, the operating revenue was 19.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and a month on month decrease of 3.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.051 billion yuan, an increase of 112.8% year-on-year and 116.6% month on month; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.401 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 216.1% and a month on month increase of 163.6%. In 2021, the company overcame the impact of core shortage and rising raw material prices, and achieved growth in sales and investment income of its own brand, driving the improvement of the company’s revenue and profit. In 2021, the company plans to pay a final dividend of 0.17 yuan per share to shareholders.
Gross profit margin improved year-on-year. The annual gross profit margin in 2021 was 7.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year; In the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin was 10.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month on month increase of 2.4 percentage points. The increase in gross profit margin is expected to be due to the growth of sales of GAC’s independent brands, resulting in a corresponding increase in economies of scale. During 2021, the cost rate was 12.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points, of which the R & D cost rate was 1.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points. In 2021, the net cash flow from operating activities was -5.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 93.6%, which is expected to be due to the decrease of net deposits of non consolidated enterprises in GAC finance and the increase of commodity purchase expenditure for financial leasing business.
Under the influence of core shortage, Guangfeng still achieved sales and revenue growth, and the new model is expected to promote the performance of the joint venture. In 2021, the investment income was RMB 11.814 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, of which the investment income in associates and joint ventures was RMB 11.404 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. In 2021, GAC Honda’s revenue was 114810 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; GAC Toyota’s revenue was 129465 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%. In 2021, GAC Honda sold 780300 vehicles a year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%; GAC Toyota sold 828000 vehicles a year, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. In 2021, Saina, lingshang, the fourth generation Highlander and other key models were listed, driving Guangfeng to achieve sales and revenue growth under the influence of core shortage. In 2022, the joint venture brand will launch new models such as fenglanda, Weisa, bz4x, e: NP1, xinggerui · hybrid, which is expected to promote the income and profit of the joint venture.
The independent sales volume of GAC increased steadily, and the sales volume and revenue of new energy vehicles increased significantly. In 2021, GAC sold 324200 vehicles independently, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and achieved a revenue of 52.885 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.0%. In 2021, GAC ea’an sold 120200 vehicles in total, with a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, and achieved a revenue of 17.265 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 84.3%; In the fourth quarter, gac-e’an sold 41400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 97.8% and a month on month increase of 16.0%. The sales volume and revenue of e’an increased significantly. In 2022, Eyan will launch upgraded models such as lxplus and yplus, which is expected to drive the sales volume of Eyan to continue to rise.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
After adjusting the income, gross profit margin and investment income, it is estimated that the EPS in 20222024 will be 0.88, 1.07 and 1.26 yuan respectively (the original 22-23 years were 1.00 and 1.14 yuan). According to the 22-year PE valuation and referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given 20 times PE in 2022, the target price will be 17.6 yuan, and the buy rating will be maintained.
Risk tips
The sales volume of GAC passenger cars, Guangfeng, guangben and guangfeike is lower than the expected risk, and the demand of the passenger car industry is lower than the expected risk.
