\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 066 China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) )
Roe is still in the forefront of the industry, and the net profit attributable to the parent company has increased slightly under the high base. 1) In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 29.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.93%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.67%. 2) In 2021, the company achieved a weighted average roe15.5% 80%, a year-on-year decrease of more than 2pct, still far exceeding the industry average of 7.83%, ranking in the forefront of the industry. By the end of the year, the equity multiplier had reached 4.51, an increase of 0.13 over the beginning of the year. 3) Among the main businesses, the contribution of self operation, brokerage, investment banking, interest and asset management (excluding others) was 35%, 27%, 25%, 8% and 5%, of which the proportion of self operation decreased 4pct.
The market share of brokerage and financing both increased, and the IPO scale and market share declined under the high base. 1) In 21 years, the market share of the company’s stock based turnover increased from 2.93% to 3.15% (non annual report disclosure caliber, unified industry comparable caliber). At the same time, benefiting from the high activity of the market, the brokerage income increased from + 28.95% year-on-year to 6.236 billion yuan. 2) At the end of the year, the balance of two financial institutions reached 67.016 billion yuan, an increase of 21.51% over the beginning of the year, and the market share increased from 3.41% to 3.66%. The interest income of Liangrong increased by 43.36% to 4.113 billion yuan year-on-year, driving the net interest income by 31.54% to 1.75 billion yuan year-on-year. 3) In 21 years, the company completed a total underwriting scale of 1.55 trillion yuan of shares and bonds, a year-on-year increase of + 25.61%, and the market share increased from 11.59% to 12.03%, ranking second in the industry; Under the high base, the IPO amount of the company decreased from – 36.50% to 53.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and the market share fell from 17.80% to 8.81%, ranking third in the industry. Under the influence of “cold stocks and warm bonds”, the company realized an investment bank income of 5.631 billion yuan in 21 years, a slight decrease of 3.85% year-on-year.
Under the high base, the self operated income declined slightly, and the scale of asset management continued to decline, but the structure improved. 1) By the end of the 21st century, the scale of financial assets on the company’s balance sheet had increased by 12% over the beginning of the year to 209.9 billion yuan; Among them, stock and fund assets were + 51% / + 16% to 23.4/9.6 billion yuan respectively compared with the beginning of the year; OTC derivatives have achieved rapid development. The scale of new OTC options and income swaps in 21 years was 3434 / 103 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 39.34% and 150.83% respectively. In the 21st year, the company realized self operated income of 8.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 7.5%. 2) In the 21st year, the company realized a revenue of 1.395 billion yuan from large asset management business, a year-on-year increase of + 7.95%. Although AUM of asset management decreased by 12.9% to RMB 427.3 billion compared with the beginning of the year, the proportion of active management increased from 69% to 90%. In terms of fund management, the scale of public offering management was + 80.95% to 48.3 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the annual report, fine tune the brokerage market share and other indicators, increase the forecast value of BVPs from 9.51/10.90 to 9.58/11.00 yuan in 22-23 years, add a 24-year forecast value of 12.65 yuan, maintain a 30% valuation premium according to the comparable company valuation method, give the company 3.00xpb in 2022, adjust the target price to 28.73 yuan, and maintain the increased holding rating.
Risk tips
The impact of the policy on the industry exceeded expectations; The dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and valuation.
