\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 155 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) )
1. Company introduction
The company is a leading enterprise in the field of intelligent equipment in China. At present, it mainly provides intelligent automatic production lines for medium and high-end automobile manufacturers and automobile parts manufacturers at home and abroad. The business cuts into the field of new energy vehicles from the field of fuel vehicles, and the proportion of intelligent equipment business of new energy vehicles continues to increase, accounting for 73.59% of the total revenue in 2020.
In recent years, the company's performance has maintained a rapid growth rate, and the operating revenue has increased from 178 million yuan in 2016 to 502 million yuan in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 29.59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 27 million yuan in 2016 to 61 million yuan in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 22.60%. The gross profit margin remained above 30% and the net profit was basically above 10%.
2. Recommendation logic
1) the production, sales and penetration of new energy vehicles are increasing, and the demand for power batteries is increasing year by year. According to our calculation, we believe that the global market space of module + pack will be about 25 billion yuan in 2022, and the market demand will reach more than 40 billion yuan by 2025.
2) the main participants in the power battery pack market include battery manufacturers, vehicle enterprises and professional battery pack enterprises, with a market share of about 60%: 20%: 20%. In recent years, the company's customers have expanded from the vehicle factory to the head battery factory, and the business has increased significantly. In 2021, the company signed three module line purchase contracts with Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) and signed various contracts with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and its subsidiaries, with a cumulative amount of RMB 1.259 billion.
3) the company's products have the core competitive advantage of high automation rate. Module line: the automation rate of the market module line is less than 70%, while the highest automation rate of the company's module line has reached 95%, and the production beat can reach 20.58 seconds / piece; Pack line: when the market automation rate is not high, the production beat of the company can reach 51 seconds / piece, and the automation rate is up to 89%.
4) automatic production equipment has high requirements for plant area. As of January 2022, the company has a plant area of about 72000 square meters. It is expected that the production area will exceed 120000 square meters by the end of 2022, and the production capacity will expand rapidly.
3. Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's operating revenue will be 1.108 billion, 2.571 billion and 3.797 billion respectively, and yoy will be 120.58%, 132.01% and 47.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 71 million, 260 million and 429 million respectively, and yoy is 16.11%, 267.99% and 65.23%, corresponding to PE 101x, 27x and 17x. We are optimistic about the company's core competitiveness. We use peg method for valuation. We judge that the company's target market value is 10.206 billion yuan, with an increase space of 47.10%, and the corresponding target price is 134.31 yuan. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: fluctuation risk of automobile industry; Risk of decline in gross profit rate; Market competition intensifies risks; Technology update iteration risk, etc
