\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Event overview: in the 21st century, the annual operating revenue was 6.15 billion yuan / + 16.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 55.677 million yuan, with a loss of 500 million yuan in the same period last year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 10.946 million yuan, with a loss of 530 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the improvement of epidemic prevention and control in 2021, which led to the obvious recovery trend of the hotel industry. 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.43 billion yuan / – 16.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 69.408 million yuan, with a profit of 59.01 million yuan in the same period last year; The net profit deducted from non return to parent was 82.502 million yuan, with a profit of 45.28 million yuan in the same period last year, which was mainly affected by the repeated disturbance of the epidemic. In addition, the group promises to inject 100% equity of Nuojin into Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) or its subsidiaries before the end of the year 22. Nuojin holds 50% equity of Kaiyan international, which manages Beijing Nuojin hotel. Nuojin injection is expected to significantly increase Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) revenue and performance in the future.
Sub business performance: 1) the hotel business revenue is 5.83 billion yuan / + 16%, and the total profit is – 100 million yuan, compared with – 660 million yuan in the same period last year. Among them, the direct sales / franchise revenue was 4.36/1.47 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13% / 27%, the gross profit was 290 / 1.13 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year turnaround / increase of 30%, the gross profit rate was 6.6% / 76.8% respectively and – 9.0% / 75.2% in the same period last year. 2) The business income of the scenic spot is 321 million yuan / + 27%, the gross profit is 190 million yuan / + 36%, the gross profit rate is 59.6% / + 3.9pct, and the total profit is 110 million yuan / + 51%.
Performance and recovery of RevPAR: 1) in the whole year of 21, RevPAR was 119 yuan / + 20.2%, 25.2% (75% recovery) compared with 19 years, of which adr192 yuan / + 11.6%, 4.2% compared with 19 years, occ62% / + 4.4pct, 17.3pct compared with 19 years; In the same period, the RevPAR of Huazhu / Jinjiang was 172 / 138 yuan respectively, which was – 13% / – 13% (87% recovery) compared with that in 19 years, mainly due to the high proportion of the first brigade in North China with strict epidemic prevention and control and the previous increase in the proportion of light management hotels. 2) On a quarterly basis, the RevPAR of Q1 / 2 / 3 / 4 of the first brigade was 94 / 148 / 124 / 108 yuan respectively, which was – 31.4% / – 8.6% / – 29.1% / – 28.5% respectively compared with that of 19 years. In the second quarter, China’s operation was significantly improved under the control of the epidemic, and the average house price was also higher than the level of the same period before the epidemic. The RevPAR of its hotels had exceeded the level of the same period in 2019 a week before the positive case was detected in Nanjing on July 20, indicating its just needed property and rapid repair ability after the epidemic.
Speed and quality of store opening: 1) 1418 new stores / + 56% and 1021 net stores / + 21% were opened in the whole year of 21, the scale of store opening was the highest in history, and the goal of 14001600 new stores in 21 years was achieved; In the same period, Jinjiang / Huazhu opened 1763 / 1540 new stores and 1207 / 1041 net stores. 2) In terms of structure, the medium light management mode accounts for about 67% (cloud / Huayi accounts for 58% / 42% respectively) and the medium and high-end / economical / other hotels account for 19% / 9% / 4%. 3) On a quarterly basis, 184, 324, 325 and 585 new stores were opened on Q1 / 2, 3 and 4 respectively, and the opening speed of Q4 was increased on a month on month basis, mainly due to the light management contribution and large volume at home. 4) At the end of the period, the total number of stores reached 5916 by the end of the year, of which the number of medium and high-end hotels accounted for 23.4% (room volume accounted for 31.6%), and the franchise model accounted for 87.3% (revenue accounted for 25.3%). By the end of the 21st century, there were 1791 reserve stores, of which light management / medium and high-end / economical / other hotels accounted for 52% / 30% / 17% / 1%.
Expenditure and profit side: 1) cost: in the 21st, the company’s gross profit margin is 26.2% / + 13.5pct, the sales expense rate is 5.2% / – 0.6pct, and the management expense rate is 11.5% / – 1.2pct. The increase of revenue brings scale effect; The financial expense rate is 8.5% / + 6.8pct, which is mainly due to the impact of the adoption of the new leasing standards (430 million interest is accrued on lease contracts with a term of more than one year and included in the financial expenses). Compared with last year, the financial expense rate is 1.4% / – 0.3pct, which is mainly due to the replacement of bank loans with higher interest through ultra short-term financing. In the same period, the split ratio of sales / management / financial expenses of Huazhu was 5.0% / 12.1% / 2.5% and that of Jinjiang was 7.8% / 20.6% / 4.8% respectively. 2) Personnel: by the end of the 21st century, the number of employees in the first brigade was 13400 / – 7.9%, while that in Jinjiang was 33200 / – 5.4% in the same period. Huazhu has not disclosed it yet, and it was 23000 by the end of the 20th century. 3) The net profit of the parent company in the same period last year was -2.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year profit of -2.1 billion yuan; In the same period, the net profits of Huazhu / Jinjiang were – 470 / 100 million yuan respectively.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: 1) hotel demand is moderate to rigid demand in optional consumption. The leading recovery under the improvement of the epidemic in 21 years has been verified and ADR toughness has been improved. Under the background of OCC improvement after the weakening of the epidemic disturbance in 22 years, ADR rise is expected to continue. 2) The marginal pattern of the hotel industry is better. The Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) target is to reach the scale of 10000 stores by 23 years, which is expected to benefit from the trend of leading concentration. Considering the impact of the epidemic, we lowered the profit forecast, lowered the operating revenue of 22-24 years to 7 / 8 / 9.4 billion yuan (the original forecast value of 22-23 years was 8.3 / 9.7 billion yuan), reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company to 4 / 13 / 1.5 billion yuan (the original forecast value of 22-23 years was 6 / 1.3 billion yuan), and the corresponding PE of 22-24 years was 67 / 21 / 19x respectively. Pay attention to the recovery progress of hotels under the epidemic in the short term, be optimistic about the growth trend of hotel group joining in in the medium and long term, pay attention to the potential acceleration of opening stores of the first brigade, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downside risk, the recovery of the epidemic is less than the expected risk, and the opening of stores is less than the expected risk
