\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 038 Avicopter Plc(600038) )
Event: the company recently released its 2021 annual report, with annual revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, yoy + 10.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 910 million yuan, yoy + 20.5%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 900 million, yoy + 22.7%. The performance is in line with market expectations. The company's core business aviation products achieved a revenue of 21.58 billion yuan, yoy + 11.6%, accounting for 99.0% of the total revenue. The company's aviation product delivery increased year-on-year, and its core business continued to grow.
The product structure was optimized and the profit margin was improved. From 2021q1 to q4:1), the company achieved revenue of 3.2 billion yuan, 6.19 billion yuan, 4.8 billion yuan and 7.6 billion yuan respectively. The quarterly fluctuations are mainly due to the impact of aviation product production cycle and delivery plan; 2) The net profit attributable to the parent company was 164 million yuan, 219 million yuan, 236 million yuan and 294 million yuan respectively, which was relatively balanced; 3) The gross profit margin is 15.4%, 10.3%, 11.7% and 13.4% respectively; The net interest rates were 5.0%, 3.5%, 4.9% and 4.0% respectively. 4) The annual gross profit margin increased by 0.96ppt to 12.43% year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased by 0.33ppt to 4.19% year-on-year, mainly due to the company's steady promotion of model development, higher added value of new models and improved profitability.
During the period, the expense rate was stable, the collection became better, and the operating cash flow became positive. In 2021, the overall period cost rate will increase by 0.32ppt to 5.01%, and there is still room for optimization in cost control ability. Specifically: 1) the management fee rate was 4.28%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.07ppt; 2) The sales expense ratio was 0.72%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.02ppt; 3) The financial expense rate was 0.01%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.22ppt; 4) The R & D cost is 576 million yuan, yoy + 8.8%; The R & D expense rate was 2.65%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.05ppt. By the end of 2021, the company: 5) contract liabilities were 2.34 billion yuan, yoy-54.9%, and the contract payment received in advance decreased; 6) The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.45 billion yuan, compared with - 680 million yuan in the same period last year. The net cash flow from operating activities of the company changed from negative to positive, which was significantly improved.
The capital increase helped the construction of production lines, and civil helicopters developed new drivers of growth. In 2021, 1) the company added 550 million yuan to its subsidiary Hafei airlines for the construction of Tianjin civil helicopter industry base, and the 4-ton ac332 helicopter assembly production line was put into operation during the year. 2) The company added 540 million yuan to its subsidiary Changhe airlines to promote the research and development of ac313a helicopter. At present, the company has sufficient orders on hand, and the outstanding part of the signed contracts is expected to recognize revenue of 4.6 billion yuan in 2022. We believe that the company's model research and production line construction tasks are progressing smoothly, and Tianzhi company, which focuses on development, is expected to provide a lasting driving force for the company's future operation and development. 3) In 2022, the company expects the upper limit of the total amount of connected transactions to be 46.57 billion yuan (the upper limit in 2021 is expected to be 46.54 billion yuan). Among them, the upper limit of related party procurement is expected to be 12.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; It is estimated that the upper limit of related party sales is 19.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%; The upper limit of related deposits is expected to be 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 116.7%.
Investment suggestion: the company is the main force with the largest scale, the highest output value and the most complete product series in China's helicopter manufacturing industry, and its leading position in the industry is stable. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 1.136 billion yuan, 1.374 billion yuan and 1.655 billion yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 26x / 21x / 18x PE from 2022 to 2024. Considering the sustained high prosperity of the industry and the company's special position in the industrial chain, we give the company 30 times PE in 2022, with EPS of 1.93 yuan / share in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 57.59 yuan. For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: product structural adjustment; The scientific research progress of the model is less than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates.
