\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 831 Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) )
Key investment points
Implement the large-scale packaging strategy and blossom in multiple business sectors
Starting from 3C packaging business, the development and layout of socialized large packaging has been fruitful. The company is a leading white horse in paper packaging. It started from 3C packaging business. Its core business is stable and contributes to the increment through diversified customer development. Since 2013, the company has expanded socialized large-scale packaging, diversified layout of business segments such as tobacco, wine, environmental protection and cosmetics. Relying on the company's "manufacturing + service" advantage, strong R & D and design ability and close production capacity layout, the company has created high customer stickiness, continued to expand its business scope, rapid growth in the field of non consumer electronic packaging, and a multipolar growth trend has gradually taken shape.
Adverse factors are expected to be resolved and the inflection point of profit margin will gradually appear
Multiple adverse factors have been gradually resolved, and the inflection point of the company's profit margin has emerged. 1) On the cost side, the company's main raw material paper has fallen back after experiencing a wave of rapid rise last year. It is expected that under the weak performance of downstream demand, the performance of paper price will be relatively mild this year. At the same time, the company actively strengthens exchange control, and the company's profit is expected to be repaired. 2) At the capital expenditure side, the company has always maintained high capital expenditure since its listing. With the gradual improvement of production capacity layout and the harvest period of capital investment for many years, the growth rate of capital expenditure is expected to slow down; The company will further tap the potential of existing factories and improve capacity utilization and asset utilization efficiency. In addition, the new capacity will gradually reach production capacity, and all new business areas will gradually have scale, and the company's profit margin is expected to continue to improve. 3) On the profit side, after years of full competition in the industry, the leading suppliers tend to be stable, and the company has certain bargaining power. In addition, the large volume of new products, the improvement of the company's efficiency and the company's business development lead to the continuous decline of the proportion of key customers' income, and the impact of key customers' price reduction on the company is weakening; In addition, the company's large packaging strategy has achieved remarkable results, and the proportion of high gross profit businesses such as tobacco and wine has increased, which is expected to gradually improve the company's profitability.
Smart factories help reduce costs and increase efficiency, expand business models and open up room for growth
The construction of the company's smart factory continues to be promoted. In the long run, the labor cost of the smart factory is expected to decrease by about 50%. With the landing of Xuchang smart factory and the step-by-step replication of the smart factory mode to other factories of the company, the company's production standardization and automation are improved, helping the company reduce costs and increase efficiency. The acquisition of Renhe intelligence cut into the emerging track of soft materials to enhance the company's industrial synergy. The company acquired Renhe intelligent, a leading manufacturer of soft products, and entered the soft material track of smart electronic products, which is expected to enjoy the development dividend of smart wear and smart home industry. While strengthening the layout of the company's large packaging, the company can integrate the existing customer base and production service capacity on a platform, accelerate the development of Renhe intelligent customers and realize industrial synergy. We actively laid out environmental friendly paper plastic blue ocean racetrack, and the business model continued to extend. Seizing the opportunity of plastic ban, the company cut into the environmental protection packaging track earlier and actively carried out capacity layout. The company has strong R & D strength, leading product technology, high production efficiency and high degree of automation. It is expected that with the gradual launch of the company's production capacity, the continuous tightening of Chinese foreign policies and the gradual release of demand, the company's environmental protection business will usher in rapid growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
With the continuous promotion of the company's large-scale packaging strategic layout and the gradual resolution of adverse factors, the company's profit inflection point has been realized. With high production and service efficiency, strong R & D and design ability and close production capacity layout, the company is expected to continue to develop and deepen customer stickiness. On this basis, the company will continue to develop customers' emerging needs through industry integration and realize diversified business development. We expect that in the year of 21 / 22 / 23, the company's revenue will reach RMB 14.699179.74/22.146 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 24.68% / 22.28% / 23.21%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach RMB 1.197/16.02/2.014 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.84% / 33.85% / 25.72%, corresponding to PE of 20.65x/15.43x/12.27x. At present, the company's PE has been at the bottom of history and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Upstream raw material price fluctuation risk; The downstream demand is lower than the expected risk; The impact of the epidemic exceeded the expected risk.
