\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 393 Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co.Ltd(603393) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 2.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.89%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.49%; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 599 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.01%.
Comments
In 21 years, the revenue and net profit deducted from non profits increased by 23.89% / 79.01% respectively year-on-year
In terms of revenue, the company achieved an annual operating revenue of 2.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.89%, of which the revenue of coalbed methane business and natural gas supply related business was 1.739867 billion yuan respectively. In terms of performance, in 21 years, the company completed strategic cooperation with PetroChina Kunlun Gas, and the equity sale of its subsidiary brought 553 million non recurring profits and losses. After deducting non profits, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 599 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.01%. On the one hand, the reason for the high increase of non parent deduction is that the company’s revenue increased by 23.89% year-on-year under the simultaneous rise of volume and price; On the other hand, from the optimization of expenses, due to the reduction of interest expenses, the company’s financial expenses decreased by 24.52% year-on-year.
In 21 years, the volume and price of coalbed methane business increased simultaneously, and the gross profit margin increased by 4.31% year-on-year
In terms of drilling rhythm, the number of new wells drilled by Yamei energy in 2021 reached 252, including 62 new wells in Panzhuang block during the year, with a total of 504 producing wells; There were 190 new wells drilled in Mabi block during the year, with 327 producing wells in total. In terms of output, in 2021, Asian American energy achieved 1.298 billion cubic meters of coalbed methane, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%; Among them, the output of Panzhuang was 1.175 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; Mabi’s output was 123 million m3, a year-on-year increase of 83.6%. In terms of selling price, the annual average selling price of Panzhuang block was 1.8 yuan / m3, a year-on-year increase of 26.76%; The annual average selling price of Mabi block was 1.67 yuan / m3, a year-on-year increase of 21.01%; In terms of operating cost, the unit operating cost of Panzhuang block during the year was 0.21 yuan / m3, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03 yuan / m3; The unit operating cost of Mabi block was 0.77 yuan / m3, a year-on-year decrease of 0.24 yuan / m3. Driven by the rise of gas price and the decline of cost, the gross profit margin of coalbed methane sector achieved 60.63% in the whole year, up 4.31 percentage points year-on-year.
Benefiting from the high gas price environment, the 22-year double rise logic of volume and price is expected to continue
In terms of volume, in 2022, Asia US energy plans to increase its capital expenditure from 859 million yuan in 21 years to 1.578 billion yuan in 22 years, and the total gas production is expected to reach 1.442 billion m3; In terms of price, China’s natural gas imports in 2021 were 167.6 billion m3, an increase of 19%. Under the background of increasing external dependence, it is expected that the supply and demand of natural gas will continue to be in a tight balance in 22 years, the price of natural gas in China is expected to maintain a medium high level, and the price of coal-bed gas source of the company is expected to continue to benefit from the environment of high gas price.
Profit forecast and Valuation: in 2022, the company is expected to continue the steady growth of natural gas prices and raise its profit forecast. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 696 / 795 / 892 million from 2022 to 2024 (the value was RMB 640 / 740 million from 22 to 23 years ago), corresponding to PE of 13.3/11.7/10.41 times respectively, maintaining the “buy in” rating.
Risk tip: the gas sales and connection of Xinjiang city are lower than expected, the development progress of Asian American energy is lower than expected, and the gross margin is declining
