\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 115 China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) )
The income increased and the loss expanded slightly
China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) issued the 2021 annual report on March 30, 2022. The company’s operating revenue in 2021 was 67.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.48% and a decrease of 44.46% compared with 2019; The net loss attributable to the parent company was 12.214 billion yuan, an increase of 379 million yuan year-on-year; Deducting the net loss not attributable to the parent company was 13.541 billion yuan, an increase of 863 million yuan year-on-year.
China’s demand recovered rapidly, and the seating rate decreased slightly
In terms of RPK, the company’s RPK (revenue passenger kilometers) increased by 1.43% year-on-year in 21 years and decreased by 50.94% compared with 19 years. Among them, China’s demand recovered better, and the RPK of Chinese routes increased by 10.81% year-on-year, returning to 74.59% of the level in 2019; Overseas demand remained low, and RPK of international and regional routes decreased by 83.14% and 10.55% respectively year-on-year. In terms of ask, the company’s ask (available seat kilometers) increased by 5.67% year-on-year in 21 years and decreased by 40.54% compared with 19 years. Among them, the ask of Chinese routes increased by 15.82% year-on-year and decreased by 9.13% compared with the same period in 19 years; Ask of international routes and regional routes decreased by 76.06% and 18.96% respectively year-on-year. In terms of seating rate, due to the higher growth rate of ask than RPK, the seating rate of the company in 21 years decreased by 2.83 percentage points year-on-year to 67.71%, 14.35 percentage points lower than that in 19 years.
The revenue per passenger kilometer increased and the freight revenue increased significantly
Passenger transport: in 2021, the revenue per kilometer was 0.531 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.93%, including 0.509 yuan for China, with an increase of 11.87%, and 1.788 yuan for international routes, with a year-on-year increase of 120.47%. We believe that it is due to the reduction of international routes. Freight: the freight revenue in 21 years was RMB 8.309 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase of 69.74%, an increase of 117.17% compared with 2019, accounting for 12.88% of the company’s air transportation revenue. The revenue per ton kilometer was 2.449 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%.
The cost of aviation fuel is high, the operating cost is well controlled, and the gross profit margin increases
During the period, the company’s aviation fuel cost was 20.593 billion, a significant increase of 48.79% year-on-year, mainly due to the sharp rise in fuel prices and the increase in the number of flights. However, the overall control of the company’s operating costs is good, with an operating cost of 80.041 billion in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 13.05%, less than the revenue growth, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.51 percentage points.
The cost of oil deduction was 59.448 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 4.36%, far lower than the growth rate of revenue. However, during the period, the financial expenses increased by 48.26% year-on-year to 3.88 billion yuan, mainly due to the significant increase in interest expenses and the significant decrease in exchange earnings.
It is expected that the performance repair will accelerate in 2022, but it is still difficult to achieve profitability
As the head aviation company in China, the company takes Shanghai two games as the main operation base, with obvious route and market advantages and large profit elasticity. Under the background of the mismatch between supply and demand in the civil aviation industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is expected that the passenger occupancy rate may increase and the revenue level of the airline company will improve. However, affected by the instability of the global epidemic situation and the sharp rise in oil prices, we lowered the previous forecast of the company’s net profit for 22-23 years by 1.33/7.86 billion yuan. It is expected that the company will still be difficult to achieve profitability in 2022. International routes are expected to be opened in 2023, and the company will benefit from the double dividend of the growth of international line revenue and the continuous improvement of China line revenue. It is estimated that the net profit of 22-24 years will be -6.96/5.7/3.11 billion yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the recovery of the epidemic situation in various regions is less than expected, the oil price rises sharply, the RMB depreciates sharply, China’s economic growth is less than expected, and aviation safety incidents
