Yankuang energy ( Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) )
Event: the company released the performance report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 151.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.3%, the basic earnings per share was 3.34 yuan, and the operating net cash flow was 36.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.7%.
Affected by the safety and environmental protection policy, the coal output has declined, and the low gross profit trading coal business has been gradually stripped off. The company’s coal sector achieved 105 million tons of commercial coal (- 12.86%) in 2021, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.25 million tons; The sales volume of coal reached 105 million tons (- 28.4%), a year-on-year decrease of 41.97 million tons, of which the sales volume of self-produced coal was 93.83 million tons (- 16.8%), a year-on-year decrease of 18.94 million tons. In addition, the sales volume of trade coal decreased by 23.03 million tons, resulting in a significant decline in the overall sales volume. In terms of subregions, the company was affected by the safety and environmental protection policies of Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia base and the company’s headquarters last year, resulting in the shutdown of some mining areas. Among them, the sales volume in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia was 25.126 million tons (- 32.56%), a year-on-year decrease of 12.131 million tons; Shandong Province achieved sales of 25.07 million tons (- 19.98), a year-on-year decrease of 6.259 million tons, and the production and sales of coal mines in Australia were stable. In 2021, the mining areas that have been shut down will basically resume normal production, and will be put into normal operation this year. We expect that the coal production and sales will return to the normal level; In addition, the company took the initiative to divest the trading coal business with low gross profit margin to optimize the quality of the company’s assets. On March 9, the company announced that yingpanhao coal mine with an annual capacity of 8 million tons belonging to Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia mining area has also entered the trial production stage. Under the capacity expansion, the company’s output will continue to grow steadily in the future.
Benefiting from the substantial year-on-year rise in sales prices, the coal sector’s profit driven performance soared. The company’s coal business segment achieved an operating revenue of 83.8 billion yuan (20.7%) in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 14.35 billion yuan. The decrease in the sales volume of the coal segment was mainly due to the sharp rise in the sales price year-on-year, with the sales unit price of 793 yuan / ton (68.6%), a year-on-year increase of 323 yuan / ton, of which the average sales price of self-produced coal was 716.8 yuan / ton (70.9%), a year-on-year increase of 297.4 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin was 53.61% (+ 5.38pct). In terms of cost, The company converted the transportation expenses into sales costs during the reporting period, realizing a cost of 445.1 yuan (45.53%) per ton of coal, a year-on-year increase of 139.3 yuan / ton and a gross profit of 348.1 yuan / ton, of which the cost of self-produced coal was 332.6 yuan / ton (53.2%), a year-on-year increase of 115.4 yuan / ton and a gross profit of 384.3 yuan / ton. The sharp increase in the unit price per ton of coal has become the main reason for the sharp increase in the net profit of the company’s coal sector. Benefiting from the overseas situation and the tight supply and demand pattern of China’s coal, the overall price of coal is rising. It is expected that the price of the company’s coal products will remain high throughout the year.
The chemical industry sector has achieved a simultaneous rise in volume and price, and the high boom may continue. The chemical sector achieved an operating revenue of 21.4 billion yuan (103.6%), an operating cost of 14.55 billion yuan (56.7%), and a gross profit margin of 32.0% (+ 20.3pct). The company produced 5.794 million tons (26.6%) of chemical products, with a year-on-year increase of 1.21 million tons, of which the main increase came from methanol. In 2021, the company achieved a methanol output of 2.5 million tons (37.3%), a year-on-year increase of 680000 tons and a new ethylene glycol output of 292000 tons. The coal chemical sector of the company continued to be stable, the industry boom was high, and the sales unit price increased significantly, with the average selling price reaching 4079.7 yuan / ton (65.88%), an increase of 1620.3 yuan / ton year-on-year. At present, the international crude oil price has soared, and the chemical sector of the company is expected to continue to benefit. In the future, the clean and efficient transformation direction of coal chemical industry is still the driving force of growth.
High proportion of dividends, highlighting the long-term investment value: according to the company’s dividend distribution plan, in 2021, the company will distribute the final dividend of 2021 to all shareholders of 2.0 yuan per share (including tax), with a total dividend of about 9.897 billion yuan (including tax), accounting for 60.87% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2021. Calculated according to the closing price of 37.99 yuan on April 1, the dividend rate will reach 5.3%, and a large proportion of dividends will be returned to shareholders, Good profitability and stable cash inflow, continue to maintain a high red rate, and be optimistic about the long-term investment value of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 22.13/24.21/24.55 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 8.4/7.6/7.5 times. The first coverage gives the company a buy rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Coal prices fell sharply; The production and sales of coal are less than expected and the progress of projects under construction is slow.
