\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 032 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) )
Event: Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) released the 2021 annual report. The company's revenue was 21.585 billion yuan (+ 16%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.944 billion yuan (+ 5%), of which 21q4 revenue and net profit were + 12% and - 8% year-on-year. The slow growth of profit was mainly due to the higher than expected rise in the price of raw materials and the expiration of income tax preference for high-tech enterprises. The cash dividend plan for 2021 is to pay out 19.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, and the cash dividend proportion is 80.3%, which is a record high.
Comments:
In 2021, export revenue increased significantly, and China's e-commerce reform achieved remarkable results. In terms of sub regions, the company's export revenue in 2021 was 7.33 billion yuan (+ 34%), of which the parent company SEB contributed 6.86 billion yuan. The poor operation of the global supply chain accelerated the transfer of SEB orders. In 2022, the estimated related sales amount between the company and SEB group is 7.55 billion yuan (year-on-year + 10%), and the potential slowdown is mainly due to the gradual normalization of overseas demand and supply chain in the post epidemic era. In China, Kwai Tien's domestic revenue in 2021 was 12 billion 870 million yuan (+11%), and the steady growth was mainly attributed to the successful landing of online transformation strategy and the optimization of online product sales structure: 1) online reform, the company built a "tiktok" of e-commerce to achieve self efficiency and unified distribution of goods and warehouses to enhance channel efficiency, and promoted the official flagship store of Jingdong Tmall DTC, and settled on new platforms such as jitter and fast hand to open up new growth points. 2) In terms of product structure optimization, the company continued to promote the new product development strategy of "taking consumers as the center" and deeply tap user needs with the help of big data. The company's online growth continued to be strong. According to the business consultant data, from January to February of 22, the Gmv of Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) kitchen appliances was + 17% year-on-year, of which the Gmv of the main category of rice cooker / electric pressure cooker / wall breaker / air fryer was + 18% / - 5% / + 9% / + 201% year-on-year, and the Gmv of household appliances was + 88% year-on-year, of which the sales of vacuum cleaner / mite remover were + 36% / + 142% year-on-year.
The optimization of product structure hedges the rising pressure of raw materials, and the net interest rate is under pressure due to the expiration of income tax preference. In 2021, the company implemented the new revenue standard, and the transportation expenses were reclassified from "sales expenses" to "operating costs". If the statistics were based on the caliber before reclassification, the overall gross profit margin of the whole year decreased slightly by 0.38 percentage points year-on-year. In order to cope with the rapid rise of raw material prices, the company continued to practice the strategy of promoting new and expensive products, and increased the proportion of sales of products with high added value and high gross profit. In addition, the inclusion of official flagship stores of electrical appliances and cookers into self-operation also pushed up the gross profit margin. In 2021, the company's export gross profit margin was 14.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8 percentage points, which was mainly due to the sharp rise in raw material prices after SEB order pricing at the beginning of the year. It is expected that repricing at the beginning of the year will raise the export gross profit margin to the historical average level (the average value from 2016 to 2020 is 19.0%). In the whole year, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was -0.9pcts year-on-year. In addition to the impact of the decline in gross profit margin, the expiration of the 15% high-tech enterprise income tax rate previously adopted by the company was also one of the main reasons for the decline in net profit margin. In terms of assets and operation quality, the company's net operating cycle is only 24.8 days (year-on-year + 7 days), with its own capital of 4.9 billion yuan + interest free liabilities. It is expected that the capital expenditure in the next two years will be limited and the operating safety cushion will be sufficient.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: in 2021, the company achieved stable growth in domestic sales, expanded clean appliances while consolidating advantageous categories, actively carried out e-commerce channel reform, and further increased its export business. Taking into account the rise of raw materials and the possible contraction of overseas durable goods demand and other factors, the company adjusted the net profit forecast of the company from 2022 to 2023 to 2.32/2.62 billion yuan (down 4.5% / 4.4%), increased the net profit forecast of 2024 to 2.91 billion yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE was 19, 16 and 15 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the expansion of new products is less than expected, overseas sales are weak, and the price of raw materials is higher than expected.
