\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Event:
The company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved a revenue of 13.119 billion yuan in 2021 (the same as + 19.90%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.166 billion yuan (the same as + 8.30%; year-on-year under the standard of preparation + 38.82%); Deduct non net profit of 1.143 billion yuan (the same as + 141.30%; year-on-year + 76.14% under the standard of preparation); EPS 2.41 yuan / share; The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 20 (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Key investment points:
In 2021, the volume and price rise together, and the high growth of Wusu continues the high-end process. In 2021, the company’s beer business reached 12.84 billion (the same as + 20.8%), of which the sales volume was 2.789 million tons (the same as + 15.1%), and the ton price increased by 5.0% year-on-year to 4601 yuan, realizing the simultaneous increase of volume and price. 1) In terms of products, Wusu continues to increase its volume and drive the continuous optimization of product structure. In 2021, the company’s revenue from high-end / mainstream / economic products increased by 43.5% / 10.8% / 10.6% year-on-year respectively, of which the sales volume / ton price of high-end products increased by 40.5% / 2.1% year-on-year respectively, and the revenue accounted for the same + 6pct to 36.5%. According to channel feedback, the annual sales volume of Wusu, the core large single product, is expected to exceed 800000 tons, and the sales volume of Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) is expected to achieve steady growth, contributing the main increment with Wusu (market outside Xinjiang); In addition, the volume of core pinlebao is expected to remain stable. 2) From a subregional perspective, big cities plan to continue to accelerate their expansion. In 2021, the Northwest / central / southern regions will achieve revenue of 4.2/5.3 billion and 3.3 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24% / 6% / 21%. It is expected that South China, East China and other markets will perform prominently.
The cost pressure was controllable, and the profitability of the whole year was steadily improved. In 2021, the company’s profitability increased steadily. On the one hand, the structural upgrading led to the same gross profit margin of + 3.3pct to 50.9% (in 2021, the company adjusted the accounting standard and included the freight originally included in the sales expenses into the operating cost at one time. This data adopts the comparable standard); The company actively locked the price of core raw materials, optimized supply chain management, and superimposed the scale effect of sales growth, the ton cost of beer business in 2021 was 2238 yuan (the same as – 0.1%). On the other hand, the company’s sales (comparable caliber) expense rate in 2021 is the same as -1.3pct, which is expected to be mainly affected by the epidemic and the reduction of expense investment; The management fee rate is the same as -2.3pct, which is expected to be mainly affected by the company’s completion of asset restructuring and the high cost base of intermediary services in 2020. In 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was the same as + 1.2pct to 8.9%, and the net interest rate excluding non attributable to the parent company was the same as + 2.8pct. The improvement of profitability was slightly lower. It is expected to be mainly affected by the substantial increase of minority shareholders’ income.
Repeated epidemic + organizational adjustment slowed the growth of revenue in 2021q4, and the profit side reversed its losses year-on-year. In 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 1.93 billion yuan (the same as + 1.1%), of which high-end / mainstream / economic products achieved 720 / 10.1 / 130 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.4% / – 0.3% / + 11.2% respectively; The Northwest / central / southern regions of the sub regional companies achieved RMB 410 / 710 / 740 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.4% / – 6.9% / + 25.6% respectively. The growth rate of revenue slowed down in the fourth quarter, and the market revenue of northwest and central regions declined. It is expected to be mainly affected by the epidemic situation in Northwest China and the adjustment of organizational structure at the end of the year. In addition, in 2021q4, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent of 122 million and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent of 117 million, respectively turning losses year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in 2021, the company will continue the high-end process, the high-end large single products Wusu and 1664 will continue to maintain high growth, and the waist products such as heavy beer and Lebao will also maintain a steady growth trend; Wusu terminal brand is gaining momentum, and the development of blank market is accelerating. Recently, Carlsberg group, the parent company of heavy beer, announced the sailing 27 plan, which will continue to increase the Chinese market in the future. At present, the adjustment of the company’s internal channels and organizations is also gradually straightened out. It is suggested to weaken the short-term epidemic and cost disturbance, and continue to be optimistic about the continuous promotion of the company’s high-end + nationalization. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.00/3.59/4.26 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 37 / 31 / 26 times respectively. It will be rated as “overweight” for the first time.
Risk tips: 1) repeated outbreaks lead to consumption inhibition; 2) Increased market competition leads to increased costs; 3) The sharp fluctuation of economy leads to the decline of product price; 4) The pace of product upgrading is less than expected; 5) Food safety risks. In case of any difference between the relevant data and information and the contents published by the company, the contents published by the company shall prevail
