\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Key investment points
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 21 years, the revenue reached 20.384 billion yuan, an increase of 22.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.849 billion yuan, an increase of 30.7% at the same time. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 6.274 billion yuan, an increase of 24.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.574 billion yuan, an increase of 32.2%.
The profit side of 21q4 slightly exceeded expectations, and the optimization of expense rate contributed to the elasticity of performance. In 2021, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) thoroughly implemented the “fine management to increase benefits, precision marketing to expand the market”, and the cost rate optimization contributed to the performance elasticity in 21q4. Recently, the market may be worried about the marginal weakening of the expansion trend of 1000 yuan price belt. Maotai 1935 and other 1000 yuan Maotai flavor may squeeze out Guojiao 1573. As a strategic brand of “brand nationalization and sales regionalization”, Baijiu national cellar 1573 has been playing a leading role in the market of 21H2 in East China. Among them, in Jiangsu market, the gap between Guojiao and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is narrowed from 1-7 to 1-6, and the 10 billion East China market will be leveraged later or under the refined operation of the company. In the strong North China market, low-grade 1573 continued to reap the dividend of consumption upgrading. In 21 years, the proportion of low-grade sales increased to 50% and the proportion of revenue increased to about 40%. Under the endorsement of equity incentive, the profit growth of Laojiao in the past 22 years is expected to reach the 75th percentile of the same industry. We expect the sales caliber of Guojiao to exceed 26 billion yuan, an increase of 30% at the same time.
The dual brand strategy has achieved remarkable results, and secondary high-end products such as Tequ series have begun to increase in volume. In the secondary high-end price, after several years of shock therapy to control the quantity and raise the price, the time-honored Tequ series successfully stood at the price of 300 yuan and began to increase in volume in 21h2. From the marginal point of view, Tequ series has gradually digested the impact of price increase, and the annual sales volume of 21 years has exceeded the level of 18 and 19 years, which may subsequently reduce the growth pressure of high-end national cellars. It is estimated that in 22 years, Tequ 60, a time-honored brand, will form the second growth pole in large quantities, driving the rapid growth of medium-grade liquor.
Equity incentive activates the initiative of the management, and Liu Miao group shares continue to strengthen its execution Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) as a high-end liquor with “Youth” gene, excellent internal mechanism promotes the implementation of flexible channel policies beyond expectations. 21Q3 company promoted the management of stock ownership incentives. In March 22, Liu Miao served as chairman of the group, further strengthening the integration of Baijiu resources, and comprehensively started the battle of “rejuvenating from defendiary to full rejuvenation”. In the past 21 years, the company actively adjusted the channel mode in Henan and other regions to further reduce the cost rate, and continued to be optimistic about the optimization space of the cost side under the company’s fine operation. The implementation of equity incentive improves the certainty of performance growth in the next two years, and the company is expected to achieve the new 10 billion planning goal in advance.
The nationalization of Guojiao was promoted as scheduled, and the secondary high-end of Tequ began to increase in volume, maintaining the “buy” rating. We expect to achieve revenue of 24.675/29.237 billion yuan in 22-23 years, an increase of 21.0% / 18.5% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.118/12.525 billion yuan, an increase of 28.9% / 23.8% at the same time; Corresponding to pe27 61/22.30X。 At present, the stock price has fallen back to the valuation depression, and the “buy” rating is maintained in view of the promotion of nationalization of national cellars and the performance elasticity of medium-sized liquor starting volume.
Risk tip: the competition of 1000 yuan price band intensifies; The movable pin is less than expected; The epidemic situation is repeated.
