\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
In 2021, the company made a profit of 911 million yuan, higher than the median value of the performance forecast. The company achieved a revenue of 10.259 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 170%; The corresponding Q4 revenue was 4.008 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 51%. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 911 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 328%; The corresponding Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company was 362 million yuan, a month on month increase of + 59%. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 15.34%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.16pct; The net interest rate was 8.85%, a year-on-year increase of + 3.33pct. The increase in profits was mainly due to the expansion of production capacity and some low-cost inventories.
The trend of high nickel is significant, and the company's leading position in the industry continues to be consolidated. In 2021, among the ternary positive electrodes in China, the proportion of high nickel ternary above 8 series reached 36%, with a year-on-year increase of 14 PCT. Under the trend of high nickel, the company's shipments increased rapidly. In 2021, the sales volume of cathode reached 52300 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 99%. By the end of 2021, the company's cathode capacity reached 120000 tons. The company has signed ternary supply agreements with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) to supply 100000 / 31000 tons of high nickel in 2022, with strong certainty of performance growth. We expect that in 2022, the company's sales volume of ternary cathode is expected to reach 150000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 187%.
The company's industrial chain layout has been continuously improved, and the new integration strategy has enhanced its profitability. The company's precursor capacity continued to be released, and the self supply rate increased to about 30%. The self supply rate was increased and the inventory advantage was superimposed. In 2021, the profit per ton of cathode of the company reached 16400 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8000 yuan. The company actively builds a new integrated industrial chain: 1) cooperate with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) to lock in nickel cobalt manganese raw materials at preferential prices; 2) Signed long-term orders with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) and agreed to purchase more than 415000 / 300000 tons of precursors in the next five years; 3) Acquire Fenggu energy conservation, an equipment manufacturer, and set up an equipment company in Hubei to build a low-cost and high-performance production line.
The company issued a fixed increase announcement and plans to raise 6.068 billion yuan from no more than 35 investors. The raised funds are used for: 1) 100000 ton cathode project of Xiantao phase I; 2) Zunyi phase 2-234000 ton cathode project; 3) 15000 ton cathode project of Zhongzhou phase 1-2, South Korea; 4) 2025 power lithium battery material comprehensive base (phase I) project; 5) Engineering equipment phase I project; 6) Replenish working capital. The first four projects have previously announced that the raised funds are expected to promote the rapid landing of production capacity and promote the rapid advancement of new integration and global layout.
Risk warning: supply chain risk; The production progress is less than expected; The demand for cathode materials such as high nickel is lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. The company fully benefited from the dividend of high nickel penetration, continued to expand production and consolidate its leading position. The company's precursor capacity is climbing rapidly, and the company has deepened cooperation with upstream raw material plants, which is expected to improve its profitability. Based on the marginal optimization of profitability brought about by the continuous improvement of the company's cost side layout and the improvement of product structure, we raised the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.098/32.53/4.287 billion respectively (the original forecast was RMB 1.726/2.800 billion in 2022 / 2023), the growth rate over the same period will be 130 / 55 / 32% respectively, and the diluted EPS will be RMB 4.68/7.26/9.57 respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 28 / 18 / 14 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
