\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 847 Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) )
Event: 1) the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.282 billion / + 16.47%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 151 million / - 37.65%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 91 million / - 51.73%. 2) In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 654 million yuan / + 24.65%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 73 million yuan / + 37.90%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 66 million yuan / + 40.68%.
Revenue growth increased month on month, and the expansion of dealers accelerated. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.281 billion yuan / + 16.47%. 1) in terms of products, among salty products, deep-sea snacks / meat and fish products / bean products achieved a revenue of 407 / 301 / 204 million yuan, yoy + 37.23% / + 22.51% / + 4.98%, baking products achieved a revenue of 754 million yuan / + 10.77%, dried fruit / vegetarian / candied fried goods achieved a revenue of 222 / 181 / 109 million yuan, yoy + 37.23% + / 42.06% / - 17.37%, and the cultivation of new products such as deep-sea snacks / meat and fish products has achieved initial results. 2) By channel, the company achieved revenue of 659 million yuan / + 4.59% through direct channels, 1.483 billion yuan / + 21.67% through distribution and other channels, and 139 million yuan / + 27.08% through e-commerce channels. ① The bright growth of distribution channels is expected to be related to the company's acceleration of channel sinking and force quantitative installation; At the end of 21 years, the number of distributors of the company reached 1749 vs 880 at the end of 20 years; ② The company continues to explore new channels, expand new retail channels such as leisure food chains (such as snacks are busy) and other channels, and actively transform to all channels. 3) Quarterly, the company's 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue growth rate was 27.45% / - 1.86% / 15.30% / 24.65% respectively. The revenue growth rate accelerated month on month. On the one hand, it is expected to be related to the advance of the Spring Festival, on the other hand, it is expected to be related to the gradual effectiveness of new product cultivation and omni-channel transformation and development strategy.
Under the background of rising raw material costs, cultivation of new brands / channels and adjustment of channel structure, the profit margin is under pressure. 1) The gross profit margin is 35.71% / -8.12pct. Excluding the freight, the sales expenses are carried forward to the operating cost. Considering the gross sales difference, the gross sales difference of the company in 21 years is 13.56% / -6.21pct. The decline is mainly due to the increase in the cost of raw materials, the company's increased marketing efforts during the cultivation of new brands / new channels and the increase in the proportion of distribution channels with low gross profit margin; 2) The company's management / sales / R & D / Finance rates in the 21st year were 5.21% / 22.15% / 2.42% / 0.92% respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 0.31pct / - 1.91pct / - 0.21pct/0.62pct; 3) The company confirmed the equity payment fee of 589873 million yuan in the whole year. After excluding the impact of equity incentive fee, it is expected to realize 205 / 146 million yuan of net profit attributable to the parent / net profit excluding non attributable to the parent, and the corresponding net profit margin / net profit excluding non attributable to the parent is 8.99% / 6.39%, with a year-on-year change of -5.40pct / - 5.33pct (excluding the impact of equity incentive fee in 21 years).
In the short term, on the one hand, under the background of channel structure reform, the company's operating performance is under pressure in the short term, but the company strives to transform and adjust the product and channel structure around the advantages of the supply chain. The transformation is strong and determined. The current reform effect has initially appeared, and the future development is worth looking forward to. On the other hand, the company lowered the equity incentive target. The revenue target of 22 / 23 is RMB 2.70/3.25 billion, and the deduction of non parent net profit (before deducting the cost of equity incentive) is about RMB 300 / 460 million. Considering the changes of external business environment, the lowered target of the company is more pragmatic and the incentive function has been strengthened. In the long run, the company's medium and long-term strategy is upgraded to "multi brand, multi category, all channel, all industry chain, (future) globalization". The strategic playing method fully combines the industry characteristics (diversified, fragmented and changeable demand; fragmented channels) and its own supply chain advantages. The strategic positioning is clear and reflects the management's in-depth thinking in the face of changes in the external business environment; Combined with the future development strategy, the company employs Zhang Lei (former general manager of Libai e-commerce), Huang Minsheng (former executive of Nestle) and Zhang Xiaosan (former CMO of Weilong) as the deputy general managers of the company, who are respectively responsible for the company's e-commerce and digital operation, the operation of large-scale manufacturing and Quality Assurance Division and the all-channel operation of large-scale marketing, reflecting the transformation determination and execution of the management, and optimistic about the medium and long-term development value.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As the company is in the transition period, we lowered the forecast of revenue growth and gross profit margin and gave the company EPS 2.5% in 202224 33 / 3.28/3.91 yuan (3.57/4.81 yuan in 22 / 23 years before adjustment), using the comparable company valuation method, 29 times the valuation in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 67.57 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The launch of new products is less than expected, the expansion of channels is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
